Pacific Northwest Weather Workshop 2018

April 27-28, 2018
Building 9 Auditorium
NOAA Western Regional Center
7600 Sand Point Way, Seattle, WA 98115

Agenda (Subject to Amendment)

Friday, 27 April

12:00-1:00       Registration

1:00-1:15         Welcome and Workshop Plans
                        Logan Johnson, MIC, NOAA/NWS WFO Seattle

Session I:  Wildfire Meteorology I

1:15-2:00 Challenges in forecasting last summer's wildfire smoke events and statewide air quality data summaries. Erik Saganic, Puget Sound Clean Air Agency and Ranil Dhammapala, WA State Dept of Ecology

2:00-2:15 Bringing Smoke Monitoring Data to the Public, Jonathan Callahan, Mazama Science

2:15-2:30 The Wine Country Fires of October 8-9, 2017, A Predictable Downslope Windstorm Event. Cliff Mass, University of Washington

2:30-3:00 Panel discussion of operational fire weather managers from around the state

3:00-3:30         Break with refreshments

3:30-3:45         Is climate change contributing to more active fire seasons across Eastern Washington and North Idaho? Jeremy Wolf, National Weather Service Forecast Office Spokane, WA

3:45-4:00  The PyroCb Wannabe of August 30, 2017 in Southern BC. Mindy Brugman and others

Session II:  OLYMPEX

4:00-4:15               The Olympic Mountains Experiment (OLYMPEX): Overview and status Lynn McMurdie and co-authors, UW

4:15-4:30               Upper-level enhancement of microphysical processes during OLYMPEX Angela Rowe and co-authors, UW

4:30-4:45               Modification of frontal and postfrontal precipitation by the Olympic Mountains during OLYMPEX.   Joe Zagrodnik and co-authors, UW

4:45-5:00               Kelvin-Helmholtz Waves during OLYMPEX:  Observations, Simulations, and Microphysical Implications.  Robert Conrick and co-authors, UW 

5:00-5:15               Atmospheric River Events as observed using the ground network in OLYMPEX Lynn McMurdie and Joe Zagrodnik, UW

5:15-5:30               Comparison of windward and leeside vertical profiles of radar reflectivity patterns during OLYMPEX. Jamin Rader and co-authors, UW

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6:00-9:00        Workshop Banquet at the Talaris Conference Center  
                        4000 NE 41st St, Seattle, WA 98105

Banquet Talk:  The Impacts of Wildfire on PM and Ozone.

Professor Dan Jaffe, Professor and Chair, Physical Sciences Division, School of Science. Technology, Engineering and Math, UW Bothell

                        6:00-7:00 PM    Icebreaker no host bar
                        7:00-8:00            Buffet Dinner
                        7:45-8:30              Presentation

Saturday, April 28

8:30-9:00         Registration and coffee

Session III:  Community Interactions

9:00-9:15               Trailhead Outreach: Analyzing Winter Backcountry Users' Education and Awareness of Avalanche Danger. Jonathan Chriest, Northwest Avalanche Center, UW Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences

9:15-9:30               Building Relationships with State Partners and the Role of the NWS State Liaison Office Megan L. Syner, Warning Coordination Meteorologist, National Weather Service Great Falls

9:30-9:45               Next Level Community Engagement: Partnership Building to Solve Tomorrow's Problems.  Logan Johnson, NWS Office Seattle

Session IV:  Wildfire Meteorology II

9:45-10:00             Forecasting Air Quality from Fire Camp, a Case Study From a Day That Went Wrong. Janice Peterson , Air Resource Specialist, USDA Forest Service, Pacific Wildland Fire Sciences Lab, Seattle, WA

10:00-10:15        The Eagle Creek Fire.   NWS Portland Imet

10:15-10:45    Coffee Break

10:45-11:00       Development of Debris Flow/Flash Flood Guidance and Decision Support Services by WFO Portland in the Columbia River Gorge Following the Eagle Creek Fire of 2017.  William R. Schneider, NWS Portland, OR

11:00-11:15  Communicating risk of excessive heat health stress for vulnerable populations.  Danny Mercer. NWS Seattle.

Session V: Weather Prediction and Local Weather

11:15-11:30         Improvements to the Northwest Weather Modeling System:  High Resolution Ensembles.  Cliff Mass, University of Washington.

11:30-12:00           The Mystery Tree Fall Near Lake Quinault.  Nick Weber, Joe Zagrodnk, Robert Conrick, and Cliff Mass

12:00-1:15      Lunch

1:15-1:30               Weather Scenarios with the Potential for Unexpected Drops in Wind Power Production. Charlie Phillips, Avangrid Renewables 

Session VI:  Northwest Climate

1:30-1:45               Monthly Atmospheric Circulations in the Pacific Northwest: Patterns and Trends.  Nick Bond and Karin Bumbaco, Office of the Washington State Climatologist

1:45-2:00               Stormwater, Culverts, and Flooding: Putting Climate Projections to Use. Guillaume Mauger.  Climate Impacts Group, UW Seattle

Session VI: Northwest Weather and Climate 



2:00-2:15               The Western Energy Imbalance Market (EIM): does high frequency forecasting incentivize more renewables in the Northwest?"  Jeff Lerner, Vaisalla

2:45-3:00       2017 Weather Cam Highlights.   Greg Johnson, SkunkBay Weather.