Cyclone Workshop Agenda:  Updated 8/23/00

Monday, 28 August 2000

7:30-8:15 AM Breakfast

8:15-8:30    Welcome and bureaucratic details.  Doug Miller and Cliff Mass, co-chairs

Session I: Evolving Paradigms of Cyclone/Frontal Development During the 20th Century
Session Chair:  Pat Pauley

8:30 Invited Talk: Mesoscale structure in synoptic-scale cyclones.  Lance Bosart, SUNY Albany

9:00 The relationship between fronts and airstream boundaries.  Robert Cohen and David Schultz, E. Stroudsburg Univ., and NSSL

9:15 Reexamining the cold conveyor belt.   David Schultz, NSSL

9:30 The structure and dynamics of split fronts.  Steve Koch. NCSU

9:45 Morning break

10:15 Evolving theoretical paradigms of cyclone development during the second half of the 20th century.   Richard Grotjahn, UC Davis

10:30 Warm and cold occlusions Mark Stoelinga et al., University of Washington

10:45 Idealized numerical simulations of baroclinic wave development: A bridge between theory and the "real world" Heini Wernli, ETH

11:00 Case study of a rapid cyclolysis event in the northeast Pacific Ocean. Jon Martin and Nathan Marsili, Univ. of Wisconsin

11:15 A case study of the formation of a jet streak in northwesterly flow using potential vorticity concepts.  Daniel Meade and Dan Keyser, SUMY Albany

11:30 Dynamics of jet streaks in a stratified quasi-geostrophic model Philip. Cunningham and Dan Keyser, SUNY Albany

11:45 A potential vorticity diagnosis of singular vectors structure and evolution.   Michael Morgan, Univ. of Wisconsin

12:00-1:30 PM LUNCH

1:30 Panel and Group Discussion: Do Simplified Conceptual Models Get in the Way of REAL Understanding of Cyclone/Frontal Evolution?
Panel members:  Dave Schultz, Dan Keyser, Mohan Ramamurthy, Jon Martin

Session II : Physics and Dynamics of Cyclone Development
Session chair:  Warren Blier

2:30 Boundary layer interaction in cyclones: A retrospective look.  Wendell Nuss, Naval Postgraduate School

2:45 Another stab at the problem of moist baroclinic instability. Mankin Mak, Univ. of Illinois

3:00 The role of subsynoptic processes in synoptic-scale extratropical cyclone development.  Kenneth Parsons and Phillip Smith, Purdue

3:15-6:00 Recreation

6:00-7:30 Dinner

Session III: Synoptic and Frontal Analysis
Session chair:  Paul Roebber

7:30 A comparison of proposed and current methods of surface analysis.  Eric Hoffman, SUNY Albany

7:45 A climatology of intense surface baroclinic zones over the United States. Fred Sanders, Sanders Worldwide Enterprises

8:00 Panel and Group Discussion: Frontal analysis: A dinosaur of the 20th century?
Panel Members:  Warren Blier, Fred Sanders, Cliff Mass, and Tim Hewson



Tuesday, 29 August 2000

7:30-8:15 AM Breakfast

Session IV: Non-local Forcing of Cyclones
Session chair:  Brad Colman

8:15-8:45 Invited Talk: Downstream development over the north Pacific Ocean.  Greg Hakim, Univ. of Washington

8:45 Energy budget of a global collapse of available potential energy.   Werner Wintels and John Gyakum, McGill

9:00 Lagrangian trajectories, PV anomalies at the tropopause and downstream developments.   Sylvie Malardel and Sourgen, Meteo. France

9:15 Upper-level cut-offs as progenitors of cyclogenesis .  H.C. Davies and C. Schwierz, ETH

9:30 Midtropospheric circulation patterns associated with east coast winter storms.  Alan Chan et al., Cornell University

9:45 Morning break

10:15 Predicting east coast winter storm frequencies. Matthew Hirsch et al. (Alan Chan presenting), Cornell University

10:30 Influence of upstream diabatic heating upon a major European cyclone.  Alexia Massacand, ETH

10:45 The relationship of the interannual variability of synoptic-scale cyclones to the interannual variability of blocking events. Anthony Lupo and Jason Wiedenmann, Univ. of Missouri

11:00 The effects of ENSO on extratropical baroclinic life cycles over the North Pacific.  Mel Shapiro, Heini Wernli and Nick Bond., NCAR, ETH, PMEL

11:15 Flexible discussion

Session V: Initialization and Error Growth of Midlatitude Systems.
Session chair:  Wendell Nuss

11:30-12:00  Invited Talk: Initialization and major forecast errors over the Eastern Pacific.  Lynn McMurdie, Brett Newkirk, and Cliff Mass, University of Washington.

12:00-1:30 PM LUNCH

1:30 Relationship between singular vectors, PV gradients, and Q-vectors.  Carolyn Reynolds et al., NRL Monterey

1:45 A dynamical evaluation of the effect of targeted dropsonde observation. Istvan Szunyogh and Zoltan Toth

2:00  Short-range error growth in the Pacific storm track. Rolf Langland and Ron Gelaro, NRL Monterey

2:15 Evaluation of the timing and strength of MM5 and Eta surface troughs over the eastern Pacific .  Brian Colle and Cliff Mass, Univ. of Washington

2:30 Panel/Group Discussion: What are the implications of downstream development ideas for numerical weather prediction in the 21st Century?
Panel Members:  Rolf Langland, Mel Shapiro, Heini Wernli, and John Nielsen-Gammon

3:30-6:00 Recreation

6:00-7:30 Dinner

7:30 Panel and Group Discusssion: Better Data or Better Models? What should be our priority during the next decade?
Panel Members:  Ron Gelaro, Fred Carr, Brad Colman, and Steve Tracton

Wednesday, 30 August 2000

7:30-8:30 AM Breakfast

Session VI: Interaction of Cyclones and Fronts With Orography
Session Chair: Jim Doyle

8:30  Review talk:   Intense landfalling Pacific cyclones along the West Coast and their interaction with orography.  Cliff Mass, University of Washington

9:00 Forecast sensitivity of a CALJET cyclone to varied representations of orography.  Doug Miller and Wendell Nuss, Naval Postgraduate School

9:15 Toward improved understanding and prediction of mesoscale processes in land-falling Pacific cyclones: Lessons from the CALJETexperiment and future plans.  Martin Ralph. NOAA/ETL.

9:30 An observational study of a major west coast cyclone during the CALJET field program. Part 1: Offshore mesoscale structure and air-sea interaction processes.  Ola Persson et al., NOAA ETL

9:45 An observational study of a major West Coast cyclone during the CALJET field program. Part 2: Interaction with steep coastal
orography. Paul Neiman et al., NOAA ETL

10:00-10:30  Break

Session VII: The Snow Bust of 24-25 January 2000
Chair:  Chris Davis

10:30-11:00 Invited Talk: Forecast experiments for the 24-26 January 2000 East Coast snowstorm using the NCEP Eta model. Rogers et al., NOAA/NCEP

11:00 Performance of 48-h RUC forecasts for the 24-25 Jan 2000 East Coast storm.  Stan Benjamin et al., NOAA FSL

11:15 Analysis and forecast experiments of the underforecasted cyclongenesis of 24-25 January 2000.  John  Gyakum and Ron Mctaggert-Cowan, McGill Univ.

11:30 Forecast sensitivity diagnosis of the 23-24 January 2000 Nor'easter.  Hyun Mee Kim and Michael Morgan, University of Wisconsin

11:45 Singular vectors and error sensitivity in forecasts of the January 2000 East Coast blizzard.  Rolf Langland and Ron Gelaro, NRL ParsonMonterey

12-1:30 LUNCH

1:30 Performance of the Navy modeling systems for the "Bust of the Century" storm. Pat Pauley et al., Naval Postgraduate School

1:45 The 25 January 2000 cyclone forecast: Meteorological cancer, the role of synoptic meteorology, and a real-time model analysis
intercomparison and verification treatment.  Steve Silberberg, Northern Illinois University

2:00  Predictability of the 25-25 January 2000 snow storm with respect to model resolution, initialization time and initial state.  Fuquing Zhang, Chris Snyder, and Rich Rotunno, NCAR

2:15 Application of the NCEP/EMC Short Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) System to the "surprise snowstorm" of January 24, 2000.  Tracton and Jun Du, NOAA/NCEP

2:30 Panel Discussion: What can we learn from this event?
Panel members:  Michael Morgan, Pat Pauley, and Stan Benjamin

3:30-6:00 Recreation

6:00-7:30 Dinner

Session VIII: Communicating our New Knowledge to the Outside World
Session chair:  Lynn McMurdie

7:30 How model simulations of cyclones, fronts and other weather systems can be used for teaching meteorology to non science and
meteorology students.  Peter Zwack, Univ. of Quebec

7:45 Panel and Group Discusssion: Beyond the Golden Book of Weather: Communicating our improved understanding of cyclone/frontal evolution to our students and the public.
Panel members:  Peter Zwack, Howie Bluestein, and Lynn McMurdie



Thursday, 31 August 2000

7:30-8:15 AM Breakfast

Session IX: The Transition from Tropical Systems to Extratropical Cyclones
Session chair: Russell Elsberry

8:15-8:45 Invited Talk: Characteristic stages of extratropical transition over the western north Pacific.  Pat Harr et al., Naval Postgraduate School

8:45 Simulations of the extratropical transition of tropical cyclones.  Elizabeth Ritchie and Russ Elsberry, Naval Postgraduate School

9:00 Extratropical transition and transformation of southwest Pacific tropical cyclones - an overview.  Mark Sinclair, Embry-Riddle Univ.

9:15 Extratropical transitions: Precipitation distribution and synoptic evolution.  Eyad Atallah and Lance Bosart, SUNY Albany

9:30 The structure of ex-hurricanes in the eastern Atlantic.  Sarah Jones and C.  Thorncroft, Univ. of Reading

9:45 Morning break

10:15 Numerical simulations of the genesis of hurricane Diana (1984).  Chris Davis and Lance Bosart, NCAR and SUNY Albany

10:30 A study of the extratropical re-intensification of former hurricane Earl using Canadian Meteorological Centre regional analyses and ensemble forecasts.    Suhong Ma et al., AES

10:45 A potential vorticity classification of extratropical, tropical, and tropical-extratropical transitioning cyclones. Christopher Smallcomb and Michael Morgan, Univ. of Wisconsin

11:00 Do We Understand the Physics of Tropical/Extratropical Transitions? Plenary Discussion

12:00-1:30 PM LUNCH

Session X: Model Simulations of Cyclones and Frontal Structure
Session Chair:  Jonathan Martin

1:30 Are land bombs fundamentally different from explosive oceanic cyclones?  Mohan Ramamurthy et al., Univ. of Illinois

1:45 The structure and evolution of a Kona Low.  Steve Businger et al., Univ. of Hawaii

2:00 Diabatic effects and the low-level jet.  Gary Lackmann, NCSU

2:15 Analysis and model simulations of a case of bent-back frontogenesis  and associated severe weather over the U.S. Great Plains.  Paull Roebber and Johnson, Univ. of Wisconsin

2:30 Analysis and model simulations of an intense arctic cold front.  Fred Carr and Jon Case, Univ. of Oklahoma

2:45 Feature-based verification. Tim Hewson, UK Met Office

3:00 The effect of latent heat release on the decay of an intense continental cyclone.  Jon Martin and Derek Posselt, Univ. of Wisconsin

3:15 Diabatic break-up of baroclinic development during extratropical cyclone life cycles: FASTEX examples.   I. Mallet, J.P. Cammas, P. Mascart, and P. Bechtold, Laboratoire d'Aerolgie

3:30 Modelling studies of mesoscale structure of a developing cyclone.  Humphrey Lean, UK Met Office

3:45-4:00 Flexible discussion

4:00-6:00 Recreation

6:00-7:30 Dinner

7:30 Storm of the Century Nominations: Bring your nomination and a short 2-minute rationale (overheads okay). We will all vote at the end
Session Chair:  John Gyakum

Kegger



Friday, 1 September 2000

7:30-9:00 AM Breakfast

9:00 AM Depart