7:30-8:15 AM Breakfast
8:15-8:30 Welcome and bureaucratic details. Doug Miller and Cliff Mass, co-chairs
Session I: Evolving Paradigms of Cyclone/Frontal
Development During the 20th Century
Session Chair: Pat Pauley
8:30 Invited Talk: Mesoscale structure in synoptic-scale cyclones. Lance Bosart, SUNY Albany
9:00 The relationship between fronts and airstream boundaries. Robert Cohen and David Schultz, E. Stroudsburg Univ., and NSSL
9:15 Reexamining the cold conveyor belt. David Schultz, NSSL
9:30 The structure and dynamics of split fronts. Steve Koch. NCSU
9:45 Morning break
10:15 Evolving theoretical paradigms of cyclone development during the second half of the 20th century. Richard Grotjahn, UC Davis
10:30 Warm and cold occlusions Mark Stoelinga et al., University of Washington
10:45 Idealized numerical simulations of baroclinic wave development: A bridge between theory and the "real world" Heini Wernli, ETH
11:00 Case study of a rapid cyclolysis event in the northeast Pacific Ocean. Jon Martin and Nathan Marsili, Univ. of Wisconsin
11:15 A case study of the formation of a jet streak in northwesterly flow using potential vorticity concepts. Daniel Meade and Dan Keyser, SUMY Albany
11:30 Dynamics of jet streaks in a stratified quasi-geostrophic model Philip. Cunningham and Dan Keyser, SUNY Albany
11:45 A potential vorticity diagnosis of singular vectors structure and evolution. Michael Morgan, Univ. of Wisconsin
12:00-1:30 PM LUNCH
1:30 Panel and Group Discussion: Do Simplified
Conceptual Models Get in the Way of REAL Understanding of Cyclone/Frontal
Evolution?
Panel members: Dave Schultz, Dan Keyser,
Mohan Ramamurthy, Jon Martin
Session II : Physics and Dynamics of Cyclone Development
Session chair: Warren Blier
2:30 Boundary layer interaction in cyclones: A retrospective look. Wendell Nuss, Naval Postgraduate School
2:45 Another stab at the problem of moist baroclinic instability. Mankin Mak, Univ. of Illinois
3:00 The role of subsynoptic processes in synoptic-scale extratropical cyclone development. Kenneth Parsons and Phillip Smith, Purdue
3:15-6:00 Recreation
6:00-7:30 Dinner
Session III: Synoptic and Frontal Analysis
Session chair: Paul Roebber
7:30 A comparison of proposed and current methods of surface analysis. Eric Hoffman, SUNY Albany
7:45 A climatology of intense surface baroclinic zones over the United States. Fred Sanders, Sanders Worldwide Enterprises
8:00 Panel and Group Discussion: Frontal analysis:
A dinosaur of the 20th century?
Panel Members: Warren Blier, Fred Sanders,
Cliff Mass, and Tim Hewson
7:30-8:15 AM Breakfast
Session IV: Non-local Forcing of Cyclones
Session chair: Brad Colman
8:15-8:45 Invited Talk: Downstream development over the north Pacific Ocean. Greg Hakim, Univ. of Washington
8:45 Energy budget of a global collapse of available potential energy. Werner Wintels and John Gyakum, McGill
9:00 Lagrangian trajectories, PV anomalies at the tropopause and downstream developments. Sylvie Malardel and Sourgen, Meteo. France
9:15 Upper-level cut-offs as progenitors of cyclogenesis . H.C. Davies and C. Schwierz, ETH
9:30 Midtropospheric circulation patterns associated with east coast winter storms. Alan Chan et al., Cornell University
9:45 Morning break
10:15 Predicting east coast winter storm frequencies. Matthew Hirsch et al. (Alan Chan presenting), Cornell University
10:30 Influence of upstream diabatic heating upon a major European cyclone. Alexia Massacand, ETH
10:45 The relationship of the interannual variability of synoptic-scale cyclones to the interannual variability of blocking events. Anthony Lupo and Jason Wiedenmann, Univ. of Missouri
11:00 The effects of ENSO on extratropical baroclinic life cycles over the North Pacific. Mel Shapiro, Heini Wernli and Nick Bond., NCAR, ETH, PMEL
11:15 Flexible discussion
Session V: Initialization and Error Growth of
Midlatitude Systems.
Session chair: Wendell Nuss
11:30-12:00 Invited Talk: Initialization and major forecast errors over the Eastern Pacific. Lynn McMurdie, Brett Newkirk, and Cliff Mass, University of Washington.
12:00-1:30 PM LUNCH
1:30 Relationship between singular vectors, PV gradients, and Q-vectors. Carolyn Reynolds et al., NRL Monterey
1:45 A dynamical evaluation of the effect of targeted dropsonde observation. Istvan Szunyogh and Zoltan Toth
2:00 Short-range error growth in the Pacific storm track. Rolf Langland and Ron Gelaro, NRL Monterey
2:15 Evaluation of the timing and strength of MM5 and Eta surface troughs over the eastern Pacific . Brian Colle and Cliff Mass, Univ. of Washington
2:30 Panel/Group Discussion: What are the implications
of downstream development ideas for numerical weather prediction in the
21st Century?
Panel Members: Rolf Langland, Mel Shapiro, Heini Wernli, and
John Nielsen-Gammon
3:30-6:00 Recreation
6:00-7:30 Dinner
7:30 Panel and Group Discusssion: Better Data
or Better Models? What should be our priority during the next decade?
Panel Members: Ron Gelaro, Fred Carr, Brad Colman, and Steve
Tracton
Wednesday, 30 August 2000
7:30-8:30 AM Breakfast
Session VI: Interaction of Cyclones and Fronts
With Orography
Session Chair: Jim Doyle
8:30 Review talk: Intense landfalling Pacific cyclones along the West Coast and their interaction with orography. Cliff Mass, University of Washington
9:00 Forecast sensitivity of a CALJET cyclone to varied representations of orography. Doug Miller and Wendell Nuss, Naval Postgraduate School
9:15 Toward improved understanding and prediction of mesoscale processes in land-falling Pacific cyclones: Lessons from the CALJETexperiment and future plans. Martin Ralph. NOAA/ETL.
9:30 An observational study of a major west coast cyclone during the CALJET field program. Part 1: Offshore mesoscale structure and air-sea interaction processes. Ola Persson et al., NOAA ETL
9:45 An observational study of a major West Coast
cyclone during the CALJET field program. Part 2: Interaction with steep
coastal
orography. Paul Neiman et al., NOAA ETL
10:00-10:30 Break
Session VII: The Snow Bust of 24-25 January 2000
Chair: Chris Davis
10:30-11:00 Invited Talk: Forecast experiments for the 24-26 January 2000 East Coast snowstorm using the NCEP Eta model. Rogers et al., NOAA/NCEP
11:00 Performance of 48-h RUC forecasts for the 24-25 Jan 2000 East Coast storm. Stan Benjamin et al., NOAA FSL
11:15 Analysis and forecast experiments of the underforecasted cyclongenesis of 24-25 January 2000. John Gyakum and Ron Mctaggert-Cowan, McGill Univ.
11:30 Forecast sensitivity diagnosis of the 23-24 January 2000 Nor'easter. Hyun Mee Kim and Michael Morgan, University of Wisconsin
11:45 Singular vectors and error sensitivity in forecasts of the January 2000 East Coast blizzard. Rolf Langland and Ron Gelaro, NRL ParsonMonterey
12-1:30 LUNCH
1:30 Performance of the Navy modeling systems for the "Bust of the Century" storm. Pat Pauley et al., Naval Postgraduate School
1:45 The 25 January 2000 cyclone forecast: Meteorological
cancer, the role of synoptic meteorology, and a real-time model analysis
intercomparison and verification treatment.
Steve Silberberg, Northern Illinois University
2:00 Predictability of the 25-25 January 2000 snow storm with respect to model resolution, initialization time and initial state. Fuquing Zhang, Chris Snyder, and Rich Rotunno, NCAR
2:15 Application of the NCEP/EMC Short Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) System to the "surprise snowstorm" of January 24, 2000. Tracton and Jun Du, NOAA/NCEP
2:30 Panel Discussion: What can we learn from
this event?
Panel members: Michael Morgan, Pat Pauley,
and Stan Benjamin
3:30-6:00 Recreation
6:00-7:30 Dinner
Session VIII: Communicating our New Knowledge
to the Outside World
Session chair: Lynn McMurdie
7:30 How model simulations of cyclones, fronts and
other weather systems can be used for teaching meteorology to non science
and
meteorology students. Peter Zwack, Univ. of
Quebec
7:45 Panel and Group
Discusssion: Beyond the Golden Book of Weather: Communicating our improved
understanding of cyclone/frontal evolution to our students and the public.
Panel members: Peter Zwack, Howie Bluestein,
and Lynn McMurdie
7:30-8:15 AM Breakfast
Session IX: The Transition from Tropical Systems
to Extratropical Cyclones
Session chair: Russell Elsberry
8:15-8:45 Invited Talk: Characteristic stages of extratropical transition over the western north Pacific. Pat Harr et al., Naval Postgraduate School
8:45 Simulations of the extratropical transition of tropical cyclones. Elizabeth Ritchie and Russ Elsberry, Naval Postgraduate School
9:00 Extratropical transition and transformation of southwest Pacific tropical cyclones - an overview. Mark Sinclair, Embry-Riddle Univ.
9:15 Extratropical transitions: Precipitation distribution and synoptic evolution. Eyad Atallah and Lance Bosart, SUNY Albany
9:30 The structure of ex-hurricanes in the eastern Atlantic. Sarah Jones and C. Thorncroft, Univ. of Reading
9:45 Morning break
10:15 Numerical simulations of the genesis of hurricane Diana (1984). Chris Davis and Lance Bosart, NCAR and SUNY Albany
10:30 A study of the extratropical re-intensification of former hurricane Earl using Canadian Meteorological Centre regional analyses and ensemble forecasts. Suhong Ma et al., AES
10:45 A potential vorticity classification of extratropical, tropical, and tropical-extratropical transitioning cyclones. Christopher Smallcomb and Michael Morgan, Univ. of Wisconsin
11:00 Do We Understand the Physics of Tropical/Extratropical Transitions? Plenary Discussion
12:00-1:30 PM LUNCH
Session X: Model Simulations of Cyclones and Frontal
Structure
Session Chair: Jonathan Martin
1:30 Are land bombs fundamentally different from explosive oceanic cyclones? Mohan Ramamurthy et al., Univ. of Illinois
1:45 The structure and evolution of a Kona Low. Steve Businger et al., Univ. of Hawaii
2:00 Diabatic effects and the low-level jet. Gary Lackmann, NCSU
2:15 Analysis and model simulations of a case of bent-back frontogenesis and associated severe weather over the U.S. Great Plains. Paull Roebber and Johnson, Univ. of Wisconsin
2:30 Analysis and model simulations of an intense arctic cold front. Fred Carr and Jon Case, Univ. of Oklahoma
2:45 Feature-based verification. Tim Hewson, UK Met Office
3:00 The effect of latent heat release on the decay of an intense continental cyclone. Jon Martin and Derek Posselt, Univ. of Wisconsin
3:15 Diabatic break-up of baroclinic development during extratropical cyclone life cycles: FASTEX examples. I. Mallet, J.P. Cammas, P. Mascart, and P. Bechtold, Laboratoire d'Aerolgie
3:30 Modelling studies of mesoscale structure of a developing cyclone. Humphrey Lean, UK Met Office
3:45-4:00 Flexible discussion
4:00-6:00 Recreation
6:00-7:30 Dinner
7:30 Storm of the Century Nominations: Bring your
nomination and a short 2-minute rationale (overheads okay). We will all
vote at the end
Session Chair: John Gyakum
Kegger
7:30-9:00 AM Breakfast
9:00 AM Depart