Pacific Northwest Weather Workshop – 2016


March 3-4, 2017

Building 9 Auditorium

NOAA Western Regional Center

7600 Sand Point Way, Seattle, WA 98115


Agenda (Subject to Amendment)


Friday, 3 March

12:00-1:00       Registration

1:00-1:15         Welcome and Workshop Plans

                        Logan Johnson, MIC, NOAA/NWS WFO Seattle


Session I:  The Olympex Field Experiment:  Observations and Initial Results

1:15-2:00         The Olympic Mountains Experiment (OLYMPEX): overview and preliminary results.  Lynn McMurdie and Robert Houze, University of Washington

2:00-2:15         Stratiform Precipitation Processes in Cyclones Passing over the Olympic Mountains. Joseph Zagrodnik, Lynn McMurdie, Robert Houze, University of Washington

2:15-2:30         Independent Evaluation of Frozen Precipitation from WRF and PRISM in the Olympic Mountains, WA, USA for Water Year 2016.  William Ryan Currier, Theodore Thorson & Jessica D. Lundquist, University of                Washington

2:30-2:45         Airborne Doppler radar observations of mid-latitude storms during OLYMPEX.  Jennifer Dehart, UW



2:45-3:00         An Evaluation of Precipitation Forecasts during the Nov. 12-15, 2015 Period. Robert Conrick and Cliff Mass, University of Washington, Seattle


3:00-3:30         Break with refreshments

Session II:  Precipitation, Hydrology, and Severe Weather

3:30-3:45         Observed Precipitation Intensity Increase With More Warming and Less Acid Rain in BC and Yukon. Mindy Brugman, Gerry Holdsworth, David Fischer and others, Revelstoke, BC, Canada

3:45-4:00         Simulations of historical extreme Pacific Northwest precipitation. Todd Mitchell, Raquel Lorente-Plazas, Eric Salathe, Guillaume Mauger, and Rick Steed.  University of Washington


4:00-4:15         Proposal for an Atmospheric River Impacts Scale.  Lawrence Schick,

                         U.S. Army Corps of Engineers


4:15-4:30          Climate change: What does it mean for stormwater?   Guillame Mauger, Climate Impacts Group, UW


4:30-4:45         Hydrologic Model To Cover the Whole Nation - the National Water Model.  Brent Bower, NWS, Seattle


4:45-5:00         Short Range Probabilistic River Forecasting in the National Weather Service. Brent Bower, NWS, Seattle



6:00-9:00         Workshop Banquet at the Talaris Conference Center  

                        4000 NE 41st St, Seattle, WA 98105

Banquet Talk:   Communicating Climate Uncertainty
                          Jessica Engel, Climate Preparedness Specialist,King County’s Department of Natural Resources and Parks
                        6:00-7:00 PM    Icebreaker – no host bar
                        7:00-8:00            Buffet Dinner
                        7:45-8:30              Presentation

Saturday, March 4


8:30-9:00         Registration and coffee


Session IV:  Weather Prediction


9:00-9:15         The Synoptic and Mesoscale Environment that Led to a Historic Snowstorm for the Portland, OR and Vancouver, WA Metro Areas on January 10-11, 2017. Colby Neuman, Jeremiah Pyle, Evan Bentley, Laurel McCoy,                             Bill Schneider. National Weather Service, Portland, Oregon


9:15-9:30         Improvements to the Northwest Weather Modeling System.  Cliff Mass, University of Washington.


9:30-9:45       Quantifying shifting winds and wildfires.  Brian Potter, U.S. Forest Service.


9:45-10:00    The 14 October, 2016 Manzanita, Oregon EF2 Tornado: A Case Study. Jeremiah Pyle, NWS  Portland, Oregon

10:00-10:15  Summer Weather in Washington State: Are Clouds more a Cause or Result of Cooler Maximum Temperatures?  Nicholas A. Bond and Karin A. Bumbaco. Office of the Washington State Climatologist


10:15-10:45    Coffee Break

10:45 -11:00 Elevated temperature and O3 in the western US in June 2015. Dan Jaffe, Lei Zhang, UW-Bothell

Session V:  Forecast Uncertainty and Communication I


11:00-11:15     Weather and Community Organizing: The Challenges of Building a Weather-Ready Nation in Undeserved Populations" Logan Johnson, NWS, Seattle Washington


11:15-11:30     But the weatherman said…  Charles Wallace, Emergency Management, Grays Harbor County

11:30-11:45     The Effects of Forecast Consistency and Accuracy on User Trust.  Susan Joslyn, Jessica Burgeno.  Dept of Psychology, University of Wa

11:45-12:00   Communicating Forecast Uncertainty at the National Weather Service Office in Portland, Oregon During the Active Winter of 2016/2017, Bill Schneider, NWS Portland

12:00-1:00      Lunch


Session V:  Forecast Uncertainty and Communication II

1:00-1:15       Changes to NWS operations and communications since the October 15 wind-storm.  Logan Johnson, NWS, Seattle

1:15-2:15         Media Panel Discussion on Communicating Forecast Uncertainty


Session VI: Northwest Weather and Climate


2:15-2:30      The Top Weather and Climate Events of 2016.  Karin Bumbaco and Nick Bond.  Office of the Washington State Climatologist


2:30-2:45         2016 Cam Highlights.   Greg Johnson, SkunkBay Weather.