Cyclone Workshop 2006
Sunday, October 22
Arrival, registration. Dinner.
Monday, October 23
8:30-8:45 Welcome and Logistics
8:45 Ð 10:00 Session I: Predictability I
Assessing Predictability with a Local Ensemble Kalman Filter: Istvan Szunyogh
Consistent Global and Mesoscale Ensembles Using Ensemble Transformation: Craig H. Bishop, Justin McLay, Sue Chen, Teddy Holt, Carolyn Reynolds, Jason Nachamkin, James Doyle
Ensemble-Based Sensitivity Analysis for Observation Targeting and Thinning: Gregory J. Hakim, Ryan D. Torn
Structure, Growth Rates, and Tangent-Linear Accuracy of Adjoint Sensitivities with Respect to Horizontal Resolution: Brian B. Ancell, Clifford F. Mass
Discussion
10:00-10:30 Break
10:30 Ð noon Session I: Predictability continued
Spatial Growth of Perturbations in Turbulent Baroclinic Flows: Rahul Mahajan, Gregory Hakim
Spatial Scales and Predictability in a High-Resolution Quasi-geostrophic Model: Rebecca Morss, Chris Snyder, Richard Rotunno
Dynamics of Forecast Error in an NWP System: M. Didone, D. Luethi, H. C. Davies
Reanalysis Prior to the Radiosonde Era Using Only Surface Pressure Observations: Jeffrey Whitaker , Gilbert P. Compo, Prashant D. Sardeshmukh
Evaluating the Effectiveness of the ETKF Targeting Method for 3-5 Day Forecast: Kathryn Sellwood
Discussion
12:00-1:30 Lunch
1:30 Ð 3:00 Session I: Predictability Continued
The Impact of Unresolved Small-Scale Motions on Targeted Observations: Daniel Hodyss, Sharanya J. Majumdar
Sensitivity of Cyclone Prediction to IC and Model Physics Diversity with NCEP SREF: Jun Du, Hua Tian.
Numerical Forecast Skill over North America and Adjacent
Waters: Lynn McMurdie
Garrett Wedam.
Predictability of Cool Season Extratropical Cyclones Within Operational Models: Brian A. Colle, Michael E. Charles
Diagnosis of the 9 February 2006 East Coast Forecast
ÔChallengeÕ: Michael Morgan
Damon Alexander, Nicholas Bassill
Discussion
3:00-6:00 Recreation
6:00-7:30 Dinner
7:30-9:00 Session II: THORPEX and Societal Impacts
An Overview of the Key THORPEX Predictability and Dynamical Processes Issues: Istvan Szunyogh
An Overview of the THORPEX Pacific Asian Regional Campaign: David B. Parsons, Patrick A. Harr, Istvan Szunyogh, Tetsuo Nakazawa
US THORPEX: Science, Structure, and Activities: Jim Hansen, Lance Bosart
Accelerating Advances in Weather, Climate, and Earth-System Prediction in the 21st Century: M. A. Shapiro, B. J. Hoskins, G. Braseur
Public Response to Hurricane Rita Forecasts Along the Texas Coast: A student research study linking classroom to reality: Rebecca Morss, Fuqing Zhang, Coauthors
8:30-9:00 Discussion on the future of THORPEX
8:30 Ð 10:15 Session III: Tropical Cyclone Predictability
Assimilation of vortex position with an ensemble Kalman filter: Yongsheng Chen, Chris Snyder.
Issues in Ensemble-Based Adaptive Sampling for Tropical Cyclone Prediction: Sharanya J. Majumdar
Comparison and Interpretation of Tropical Cyclone Adaptive
Observing Methods: C. Reynolds, M. Peng, S. Majumdar, S. Aberson, C. Bishop,
R. Buizza
The Use of Ensemble Techniques for Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting and for the Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Track forecast Error: James S. Goerss
Predictability of Near-Shore Tropical Cyclone Formation: Allison (2001) and ÒAlexÓ (2004): Jason Sippel, Fuqing Zhang
Predicting Tropical Cyclones Using the WRF Model: Nicholas Bassill
Discussion
10:15 -- 10:45 Break
10:45 Ð 12:15 Session IV: Extratropical Transistion and Predictability
Predictability Associated with the Downstream Impacts of the Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones: Patrick A. Harr, Doris Anwender, Sarah Jones
The Sensitivity of Western Pacific Extratropical Transition Events to the Initial Conditions: Ryan D. Torn
Hurricanes Ivan, Jeanne, Karl (2004) and Mid-Latitude Trough Interactions: Melinda S. Peng, Ryan N. Maue, Carolyn A. Reynolds, Rolf H. Langland
Impacts of Recurving West Pacific Tropical Cyclones on Extratropical Predictability in the Northern Hemisphere: Heather M. Archambault, Lance F. Bosart, Daniel Keyser
The Extratropical Transition and Subsequent
Reintensification of Supertyphoon Dale (1996): A Storm Noteworthy for its
Impact on High Latitudes: Lance F. Bosart,
Eric P. Kelsey
Recurving Eastern North Pacific Tropical Cyclones: Kristen L. Corbosiero, Michael Dickinson, Lance Bosart
12:15 Ð 1:30 Lunch
1:30 Ð 3:30 Session IV continued
Synoptic-scale Sub-tropical Forcing of Extra-tropical Flow: Diagnostic Analyses and Model Simulations: T. Spengler, C. Schwierz, H. C. Davies
The Possible Seasonal Climate Impact from Anomalous Frequency of Recurving Tropical Cyclones: Robert Hart, Lance Bosart, Charles Hosler
Session V: Tropical Cyclones
A Climatology of Tropical Transition: R. McTaggart-Cowan, L. F. Bosart, C. A. Davis
The Development of Upshear Convection during Tropical Transition in the Subtropical Atlantic: Andrew L. Hulme, Jonathan E. Martin
Images of Hurricane Katrina (2005) below the Cloud: Timothy J. Dunkerton
The Morphology of Eyewall Lighting Outbreaks in Two Category Five Hurricanes: Steven Businger, Kirt Squires
Discussion
3:30 Ð 6 PM Recreation
6:00 Ð 7:30 Dinner
7:30 Ð 9:00 The Contributions of Professor Peter Hobbs
7:30 Ð 8:30 Comments by Cliff Mass, Lance Bosart, Dave Parsons, Jonathan Martin
8:30 Ð 9:00 Open Discussion
9:00 Refreshments.
8:30 Ð 10:00 Session VI: Mesoscale Predictability
Predictability of Severe Weather at the Mesoscale: Fuqing Zhang
Synoptic-Scale and Mesoscale Aspects of Mountain Wave
Predictability: James D. Doyle
Clark Amerault, Carolyn A. Reynolds
Predictability of Downslope Windstorms: Alex Reinecke, Dale Durran
Session VII: Extratropical Cyclones
Diabatic Rossby Waves: Aspects of Their dynamics, Climatology and Predictability: Heini Wernli, Patricia Kenzelmann
Dynamics of the 24-25 February Cyclone: Rich Moore
Discussion
10:00 Ð 10:30 Break
10:30 Ð noon Session VII continued
A Study of Coherent Tropopause Disturbances within the Northern Hemispheric Circumpolar Vortex: Joseph R. Kravitz, Daniel Keyser, Lance F. Bosart, Anantha Aiyyer
Analysis of the Potential Vorticity Budget of a Tropopause Polar Cyclone: Steven M. Cavallo, Gregory J. Hakim
Role of Upper Level PV Anomalies in Polar Low Development and Their Significance for Forecasting: Sarah F. Kew
A Multiscale Examination of a Mesoscale Cyclogenesis Event in a Polar Airstream: Thomas J. Galarneau, Jr., Daniel Keyser, Lance F. Bosart
The Influence of Shearwise Vertical Motions on the Development of an Intense Upper-Front Andrea Lopez-Lang, Jonathan E. Martin
Discussion
12:00 Ð 1:30 Lunch
1:30 Ð 3:00 Session VII continued
A New Framework for Extratropical Windstorm Prediction: Tim Hewson, Helen Watkin
Windstorms of the Pacific Northwest. Bri Dotson and Cliff Mass
Hurricane Force Extratropical Cyclones as Detected by QuikSCAT: Joseph M. Sienkiewicz, Joan M. Von Ahn, Gregory M. McFadden
Analysis of Midlatitude Cyclones and Fronts Using ATOVS Soundings: Jack Dostalek
Influence of Wave-Drag and Sea Spray on Midlatitude Development: William Perrie, Weiqing Zhang
Discussion
3:00 Ð 6:00 Recreation
6:00 Ð 7:30 Dinner
7:30 Ð 9:30 PM Session VIII: Fronts, Frontogenesis and Frontal Analysis
The Relationship between Frontal Zones and Airstream
Boundaries: Robert A. Cohen,
David Schultz
A Study of the Effect of Horizontal Contrasts in Static Stability on Frontal Behavior: Mark T. Stoelinga
8:00 Ð 9:00 Panel discussion, Dan Keyser, Chair
Howie Bluestein, Brian Colle, David Novak, Jon Martin, David Schultz, Mark Stoelinga, Joe Sienkiewicz, Jim Steenburgh, etc.
8:30 Ð 10:00 Session IX: Precipitation and Convection
Unexpectedly Heavy Precipitation Due to Mesoscale Features Induced by a Landfalling Tropical Storm: Alan F. Srock, Lance F. Bosart, John Molinari
A Pacific Moisture Conveyor Belt and its Relation to Precipitation Forecasts in the Southwestern US: Peter Knippertz, Jonathan E. Martin
The Pineapple Express and its role in high-latitude extreme precipitation events: Alain Roberge, Eyad Atallah, and John Gyakum.
Rossby Wave Precursors and Predictability of Heavy Precipitation Events in the European Alps: Cornelia Schwierz, Olivia Martius, Huw C. Davies
The Role of Moist Processes in Band Formation and Evolution during the 25 December 2002 Northeast U.S. Banded Snowstorm: David R. Novak, Brian A. Colle
Discsussion
10:00 Ð 10:30 Break
10:30 Ð noon Session IX continued
The Effects of Evaporation and Sublimation on Mesoscale Structures in Extratropical Cyclones: A Case Study with the Local Model: Florian Weidle, Heini Wernli
The Prediction of Cold-Season Convective Precipitation
Events within Extratropical Cyclones by Utilizing the Growth Rate Parameter:
Christopher J. Melick
Larry L. Smith, Brian P. Pettegrew Amy E. Becker, Patrick S. Market, Anthony R.
Lupo
Cyclones at the Dryline-Front/Outflow Boundary Intersection in the Southern Plains: Howard B. Bluestein
Derecho Formation, Evolution and MCS Interactions during BAMEX: Nicholas D. Metz, Lance F. Bosart
A Reanalysis of the Relationship between the Synoptic Scale Cyclone and the Tri-State Tornado of 18 March 1925: Charles A. Doswell III, Robert A. Maddox, Charlie Crisp, Matthew S. Gilmore
Discussion
12:00 Ð 1:30 Lunch
1:30 Ð 3:00 Session X: Extratropical Cyclones
RoebberÕs Tail: A Tail: Paul J. Roebber
Stratospheric Influences on Sea-Level Cyclogenesis: Stephen J. Colucci
Low Frequency Variability of Extratropical Cyclone Activity: Mark R. Sinclair
Baroclinic Development within Longitudinally Varying Flows: David Schultz, Fuqing Zhang, Heini Wernli
Diagnosis: Keeping up with the Changing Meteorological Landscape: John W.
Nielsen-Gammon
3:00-6:00 PM Recreation
6:00-7:30 Dinner
7:30-9:00 Provocative Group Discussion: Perhaps- Hand analysis and map rooms: dinosaurs of the past?