Cyclone Workshop 2006

Sunday, October 22


Arrival, registration. Dinner.


Monday, October 23


8:30-8:45                    Welcome and Logistics

8:45 – 10:00               Session I: Predictability I

Assessing Predictability with a Local Ensemble Kalman Filter: Istvan Szunyogh


Consistent Global and Mesoscale Ensembles Using Ensemble Transformation: Craig H. Bishop, Justin McLay, Sue Chen, Teddy Holt, Carolyn Reynolds, Jason Nachamkin, James Doyle


Ensemble-Based Sensitivity Analysis for Observation Targeting and Thinning: Gregory J. Hakim, Ryan D. Torn


Structure, Growth Rates, and Tangent-Linear Accuracy of Adjoint Sensitivities with Respect to Horizontal Resolution: Brian B. Ancell, Clifford F. Mass




10:00-10:30                Break


10:30 – noon              Session I: Predictability continued

Spatial Growth of Perturbations in Turbulent Baroclinic Flows: Rahul Mahajan, Gregory Hakim


Spatial Scales and Predictability in a High-Resolution Quasi-geostrophic Model: Rebecca Morss, Chris Snyder, Richard Rotunno


Dynamics of Forecast Error in an NWP System: M. Didone, D. Luethi, H. C. Davies


Reanalysis Prior to the Radiosonde Era Using Only Surface Pressure Observations: Jeffrey Whitaker , Gilbert P. Compo, Prashant D. Sardeshmukh


Evaluating the Effectiveness of the ETKF Targeting Method for 3-5 Day Forecast: Kathryn Sellwood




12:00-1:30                  Lunch


1:30 – 3:00                 Session I: Predictability Continued

The Impact of Unresolved Small-Scale Motions on Targeted Observations: Daniel Hodyss, Sharanya J. Majumdar


Sensitivity of Cyclone Prediction to IC and Model Physics Diversity with NCEP SREF: Jun Du, Hua Tian.


Numerical Forecast Skill over North America and Adjacent Waters: Lynn McMurdie
Garrett Wedam.


Predictability of Cool Season Extratropical Cyclones Within Operational Models: Brian A. Colle, Michael E. Charles


Diagnosis of the 9 February 2006 East Coast Forecast ‘Challenge’: Michael Morgan
Damon Alexander, Nicholas Bassill




3:00-6:00                    Recreation


6:00-7:30                    Dinner


7:30-9:00                    Session II: THORPEX and Societal Impacts

An Overview of the Key THORPEX Predictability and Dynamical Processes Issues: Istvan Szunyogh


An Overview of the THORPEX Pacific Asian Regional Campaign: David B. Parsons, Patrick A. Harr, Istvan Szunyogh, Tetsuo Nakazawa


US THORPEX: Science, Structure, and Activities: Jim Hansen, Lance Bosart


Accelerating Advances in Weather, Climate, and Earth-System Prediction in the 21st Century: M. A. Shapiro, B. J. Hoskins, G. Braseur


Public Response to Hurricane Rita Forecasts Along the Texas Coast: A student research study linking classroom to reality: Rebecca Morss, Fuqing Zhang, Coauthors


8:30-9:00         Discussion on the future of THORPEX


Tuesday, October 23, 2006


8:30 – 10:15               Session III: Tropical Cyclone Predictability

Assimilation of vortex position with an ensemble Kalman filter: Yongsheng Chen, Chris Snyder.


Issues in Ensemble-Based Adaptive Sampling for Tropical Cyclone Prediction: Sharanya J. Majumdar


Comparison and Interpretation of Tropical Cyclone Adaptive Observing Methods: C. Reynolds, M. Peng, S. Majumdar, S. Aberson, C. Bishop, R. Buizza

The Use of Ensemble Techniques for Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting and for the Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Track forecast Error: James S. Goerss


Predictability of Near-Shore Tropical Cyclone Formation: Allison (2001) and “Alex” (2004): Jason Sippel, Fuqing Zhang


Predicting Tropical Cyclones Using the WRF Model: Nicholas Bassill




10:15 -- 10:45             Break


10:45 – 12:15             Session IV: Extratropical Transistion and Predictability


Predictability Associated with the Downstream Impacts of the Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones: Patrick A. Harr, Doris Anwender, Sarah Jones


The Sensitivity of Western Pacific Extratropical Transition Events to the Initial Conditions: Ryan D. Torn


Hurricanes Ivan, Jeanne, Karl (2004) and Mid-Latitude Trough Interactions: Melinda S. Peng, Ryan N. Maue, Carolyn A. Reynolds, Rolf H. Langland


Impacts of Recurving West Pacific Tropical Cyclones on Extratropical Predictability in the Northern Hemisphere: Heather M. Archambault, Lance F. Bosart, Daniel Keyser


The Extratropical Transition and Subsequent Reintensification of Supertyphoon Dale (1996): A Storm Noteworthy for its Impact on High Latitudes: Lance F. Bosart,
Eric P. Kelsey


Recurving Eastern North Pacific Tropical Cyclones: Kristen L. Corbosiero, Michael Dickinson, Lance Bosart


12:15 – 1:30               Lunch


1:30 – 3:30                 Session IV continued


Synoptic-scale Sub-tropical Forcing of Extra-tropical Flow: Diagnostic Analyses and Model Simulations: T. Spengler, C. Schwierz, H. C. Davies


The Possible Seasonal Climate Impact from Anomalous Frequency of Recurving Tropical Cyclones: Robert Hart, Lance Bosart, Charles Hosler


                                    Session V: Tropical Cyclones


A Climatology of Tropical Transition: R. McTaggart-Cowan, L. F. Bosart, C. A. Davis


The Development of Upshear Convection during Tropical Transition in the Subtropical Atlantic: Andrew L. Hulme, Jonathan E. Martin


Images of Hurricane Katrina (2005) below the Cloud: Timothy J. Dunkerton


The Morphology of Eyewall Lighting Outbreaks in Two Category Five Hurricanes: Steven Businger, Kirt Squires




3:30 – 6 PM                Recreation


6:00 – 7:30                 Dinner


7:30 – 9:00                 The Contributions of Professor Peter Hobbs


7:30 – 8:30                 Comments by Cliff Mass, Lance Bosart, Dave Parsons, Jonathan Martin


8:30 – 9:00                 Open Discussion


9:00 Refreshments.


Wednesday, October 25, 2006


8:30 – 10:00             Session VI: Mesoscale Predictability


Predictability of Severe Weather at the Mesoscale: Fuqing Zhang


Synoptic-Scale and Mesoscale Aspects of Mountain Wave Predictability: James D. Doyle
Clark Amerault, Carolyn A. Reynolds


Predictability of Downslope Windstorms: Alex Reinecke, Dale Durran


                        Session VII: Extratropical Cyclones


Diabatic Rossby Waves: Aspects of Their dynamics, Climatology and Predictability: Heini Wernli, Patricia Kenzelmann


Dynamics of the 24-25 February Cyclone: Rich Moore




10:00 – 10:30             Break


10:30 – noon              Session VII continued


A Study of Coherent Tropopause Disturbances within the Northern Hemispheric Circumpolar Vortex: Joseph R. Kravitz, Daniel Keyser, Lance F. Bosart, Anantha Aiyyer


Analysis of the Potential Vorticity Budget of a Tropopause Polar Cyclone: Steven M. Cavallo, Gregory J. Hakim


Role of Upper Level PV Anomalies in Polar Low Development and Their Significance for Forecasting: Sarah F. Kew


A Multiscale Examination of a Mesoscale Cyclogenesis Event in a Polar Airstream: Thomas J. Galarneau, Jr., Daniel Keyser, Lance F. Bosart


The Influence of Shearwise Vertical Motions on the Development of an Intense Upper-Front Andrea Lopez-Lang, Jonathan E. Martin




12:00 – 1:30               Lunch


1:30 – 3:00                 Session VII continued


A New Framework for Extratropical Windstorm Prediction: Tim Hewson, Helen Watkin


Windstorms of the Pacific Northwest. Bri Dotson and Cliff Mass


Hurricane Force Extratropical Cyclones as Detected by QuikSCAT: Joseph M. Sienkiewicz, Joan M. Von Ahn, Gregory M. McFadden


Analysis of Midlatitude Cyclones and Fronts Using ATOVS Soundings: Jack Dostalek


Influence of Wave-Drag and Sea Spray on Midlatitude Development: William Perrie, Weiqing Zhang




3:00 – 6:00                 Recreation


6:00 – 7:30                 Dinner


7:30 – 9:30 PM         Session VIII: Fronts, Frontogenesis and Frontal Analysis


The Relationship between Frontal Zones and Airstream Boundaries: Robert A. Cohen,
David Schultz


A Study of the Effect of Horizontal Contrasts in Static Stability on Frontal Behavior: Mark T. Stoelinga

8:00 – 9:00 Panel discussion, Dan Keyser, Chair

Howie Bluestein, Brian Colle, David Novak, Jon Martin, David Schultz, Mark Stoelinga, Joe Sienkiewicz, Jim Steenburgh, etc.



Thursday, October 26, 2006


8:30 – 10:00               Session IX: Precipitation and Convection


Unexpectedly Heavy Precipitation Due to Mesoscale Features Induced by a Landfalling Tropical Storm: Alan F. Srock, Lance F. Bosart, John Molinari


A Pacific Moisture Conveyor Belt and its Relation to Precipitation Forecasts in the Southwestern US: Peter Knippertz, Jonathan E. Martin


The Pineapple Express and its role in high-latitude extreme precipitation events: Alain Roberge, Eyad Atallah, and John Gyakum.


Rossby Wave Precursors and Predictability of Heavy Precipitation Events in the European Alps: Cornelia Schwierz, Olivia Martius, Huw C. Davies


The Role of Moist Processes in Band Formation and Evolution during the 25 December 2002 Northeast U.S. Banded Snowstorm: David R. Novak, Brian A. Colle




10:00 – 10:30             Break


10:30 – noon              Session IX continued

The Effects of Evaporation and Sublimation on Mesoscale Structures in Extratropical Cyclones: A Case Study with the Local Model: Florian Weidle, Heini Wernli


The Prediction of Cold-Season Convective Precipitation Events within Extratropical Cyclones by Utilizing the Growth Rate Parameter: Christopher J. Melick
Larry L. Smith, Brian P. Pettegrew Amy E. Becker, Patrick S. Market, Anthony R. Lupo


Cyclones at the Dryline-Front/Outflow Boundary Intersection in the Southern Plains: Howard B. Bluestein


Derecho Formation, Evolution and MCS Interactions during BAMEX: Nicholas D. Metz, Lance F. Bosart


A Reanalysis of the Relationship between the Synoptic Scale Cyclone and the Tri-State Tornado of 18 March 1925: Charles A. Doswell III, Robert A. Maddox, Charlie Crisp, Matthew S. Gilmore




12:00 – 1:30               Lunch


1:30 – 3:00                 Session X: Extratropical Cyclones

Roebber’s Tail: A Tail: Paul J. Roebber


Stratospheric Influences on Sea-Level Cyclogenesis: Stephen J. Colucci


Low Frequency Variability of Extratropical Cyclone Activity: Mark R. Sinclair


Baroclinic Development within Longitudinally Varying Flows: David Schultz, Fuqing Zhang, Heini Wernli

Diagnosis: Keeping up with the Changing Meteorological Landscape: John W. Nielsen-Gammon




3:00-6:00 PM             Recreation

6:00-7:30        Dinner

7:30-9:00        Provocative Group Discussion: Perhaps- Hand analysis and map rooms: dinosaurs of the past?