Northwest Regional Climate Modeling Consortium

First Meeting:  December 9, 2016

regionalclimate


Why a regional climate modeling consortium?

To adapt and prepare for global warming, society needs reliable guidance regarding the future climate of the Pacific Northwest as greenhouse gas concentrations increase.

In the past, regional climate change research and planning was based mainly on statistical downscaling, which assumes that the distributions of climate parameters do not change, or applied dynamical downscaling using regional climate models with coarse resolution or only a small number of realizations.  These approaches  limit our understanding of  how the local climate will be altered in the future. 

To provide reliable guidance regarding the impacts of increasing greenhouse gases on Pacific Northwest climate requires a large number of  high-resolution regional climate change projections using full physics models and sophisticated statistic correction.  Such an approach will provide:

Proposed Approach

We propose to bring together the resources of the region in a cooperative venture to produce a large number of high-resolution regional climate simulations (through 2100), driven by global climate model projections, that will provide probabilistic projections of regional climate change.  The proposed enterprise will connect atmospheric, coastal ocean, hydrologic, air quality, and land use models to create a regional environmental prediction system for periods extending from decades to a century.

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Proposed Organization

A consortium of local, state, and Federal agencies, along with private sector organizations, would support and guide the running of state-of-science regional climate simulations.

We all need high quality regional climate projections.  Can we pool resources and do this together?  A regional weather forecasting consortium has proven that such a solution in both viable and effective.

The First Meeting

On December 9th, we will meet to discuss a possible regional climate consortium, with brief presentations on the current status of the effort, followed by a discussion of how to move forward.  All interested parties are invited to attend either in person or remotely.  You will also learn about some initial support by Amazon, including personnel time and computer support.

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nnouncement:  First Meeting of Perspective Stakeholders and Participants

When:   December 9, 2016, 1 PM-3 PM
Where:  Rm 310, Atmospheric Sciences/Geophysics Building
University of Washington, Seattle
Remote Access:  Using WebEx:

https://meetings.webex.com/collabs/#/meetings/detail?uuid=M4EY0M6EJESDHYSX5LW0X1RCFX-G8X3&rnd=542460.88410

Meeting Number:  192 143 785
Host key:  424509
Audio connection:  1-415-655-0001
You can also get audio through your computer.

Alternative audio connection:
View dial-in numbers
USA: 1-206-315-1785
USA /Canada (toll free): 1-800-379-6841
Participant Passcode: 234127

Meeting Agenda:

Why do we need regional climate modeling?
Why is an ensemble of regional climate simulations driving by a large collection of global climate models the best approach?
Some examples of initial attempts.
Current status to building the necessary capabilities.
A proposed structure:  a regional climate modeling consortium
How could the effort be organized.
Discussion.

The meeting will probably run 60-90 minutes.

Background Material

White Paper on Regional Climate Modeling
Powerpoint Presentation Given At the Northwest Climate Conference-Skamania Lodge (November 2016)

For more information contact:  Cliff Mass, Atmospheric Sciences, UW (cmass@uw.edu).