2000 Pacific Northwest Weather Workshop

A Workshop Sponsored by the University of Washington, the National Weather Service, and the Puget Sound Chapter of the American Meteorological Society

Friday, 4 February 2000

8:00-8:45 Registration

8:45-9:00 Welcome and Bureaucratic Details: Cliff Mass and Chris Hill

Session I: Observing Systems and Model Initialization over the Pacific

9:00 Invited Talk: The Need for a Coordinated Pacific Basin Observing Program. Dr. Alexander MacDonald.

9:30 Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) Analyses of Marine Extratropical Cyclones. Jack, Mark DeMaria, and John Knaff, NESDIS, Colorado State

9:45 Integrating AMSU into the Forecast Process. Ron Miller, NWS Spokane

10:00 Break

10:30 Investigation of Initialization and Forecast Errors in the Cyclone of 3 March 1999. Lynn

McMurdie and Brett Newkirk, University of Washington

10:45 Evaluation of Initialization and Forecasts of Numerical Weather Prediction

Models over the Pacific Ocean: Brett Newkirk and Cliff Mass, University of Washington, Brad Colman, NWS, Seattle

11:00 NCEP Plans for Improved Coastal Forecasting. M.S. Tracton, S. J. Lord, J. Derber, and K. Mitchell, NCEP/EMC, National Weather Service, Camp Spring, MD

11:15 Panel and Group Discussion:

Pacific Initialization: How Big of a Problem is it and How Can We Address it?

12:15 Lunch

1:15 Session II: Radar Diagnosis of Precipitation

1:15 Rainfall Characteristics and Z-R relation for Eureka, CA. Sandra Yuter, University of Washington

1:30 Use of a Vertically Pointing S-band Cloud and Precipitation Radar During CALJET: Field Testing a Radar Coupler Mode and Comparison With NEXRAD: Allen White, NOAA/ETL

1:45 A prolonged rainshadow event: utility of weather radar and forecasting implications: Robert Nissen, Laurie Neil, and Rick Drouillard, Environment Canada

2:00 Operational Assessment of a Real-Time WSR-88D Snow Algorithm at NWSFO Reno. Mary M. Cairns, NWS Reno, Mark Fresch, OSF Norman, OK, Larry Osterman and Steve Otteson, NWS Reno

Session III. Hydrological Prediction

2:15 Evaluation and Sensitivities of the MM5-DHSVM Streamflow Forecasting System

Ken Westrick, Clifford Mass, and Pascal Storck, University of Washington, and Doug McDonnal (NWS, Seattle)

2:30 The Sensitivity of the Forecast Canopy Representation On Peak Streamflow Prediction in the Pacific Northwest. Pascal Storck, University of Washington

2:45 General Poster Session with refreshments

Performance of the WSR-88D Tornadic Detection Algorithm in the Western U.S. Robert
A. Lee, NEXRAD Operational Facility

OSU Coastal Ocean NOPP. Roger Samuelson, Oregon State University

An Evaluation of MRF MOS Temperature Forecasts in Northern Alaska During the Cold Season: Richard Thoman, WSFO Fairbanks, Alaska

An Analysis of ENSO as a Predictor of Flood Threat. Doug McDonnal, WSFO Seattle

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies During Different Phases of ENSO. Dana Felton, WSFO Seattle.

Compilation of 98/99 Cold Season Storms. Ron Miller, NWS Spokane

Real-Time Mesoscale Atmospheric and Hydrologic Modeling in the Pacific Northwest. Chris Hill and Brad Colman, NWS Seattle

Operational Use of Model Diagnostics. Joel Curtis, NWS Anchorage, and Steve Tracton, NCEP

Dry Versus Wet Lightning, Dr. Sue Ferguson, USDA Forest Service, Seattle

Session IV Coastal and Orographic Precipitation

3:45 Synoptic Climotology of Freezing Rain in the Columbia Basin. Ron Miller, NWS, Spokane

  4:00 An Overview of the Upcoming IMPROVE Field Project in the Pacific Northwest. Mark Stoelinga, University of Washington

Session V: The Effects of ENSO on Northwest Weather

4:15 The Effects of ENSO on Extratropical baroclinic life cycles over the North Pacific: Melvyn A. Shapiro, NOAA/Environmental Technology Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado, Heini Wernli Institute for Atmospheric Science, ETH, Zurich, Switzerland, Nicholas A. Bond, University of Washington

  Banquet at Ramada Inn, Northgate

6:00 No-host cocktail hour

7:00 Dinner

7:45-8:45 After-dinner talk and discussion

"The Globe Project" - A joint science and education program to study the global environment. Dr. Alexander McDonald, Director, NOAA Forecast Systems Laboratory

Saturday, 5 February 2000

Session VI: Numerical Weather Prediction

9:00 Invited Talk: Coastal Orography: Does It Help or Harm Mesoscale Predictability. Wendell Nuss and Douglas Miller, Naval Postgraduate School

9:30 The Northwest MM5 Prediction System, Current Status and Future Plans: Dave Ovens,
Mark Albright, and Cliff Mass

9:45 The Effects of Domain Size and Boundary Update Frequency on Mesoscale Forecasts.
Rick Steed, Nick Bond and Cliff Mass, University of Washington.

10:00 Precipitation Verification Over the Pacific Northwest During the 1997-1999 Cool
Seasons. Brian Colle, SUNY Stony Brook and Clifford Mass and Ken Westrick,
University of Washington

10:15 Break

10:45 On the Need for Local Sea State Modeling. Jay Albrecht, WSFO Seattle

11:00 Ensemble Forecasting a Bust: Joshua Hacker, Scott Krayenhoff, and Roland Stull,
University of British Columbia

11:15 The UW Mesoscale Ensemble System. Eric Grimit and Cliff Mass, UW, Brad Colman,


11:30 Panel and Group Discussion: Are Probablistic Forecasts the Future for the Dissemination of Weather Forecasts?

12:15 Lunch

Session VII. Results of Major West Coast Field Experiments

1:15 Rapid Evolution of a Landfalling Cold Front Upstream of Steep Coastal Orography: Bradley F. Smull, NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory and University of Washington, Seattle, Cheng-Ku Yu, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Brian Colle, SUNY Stony Brook

1:30 Lessons from CALJET and Plans for the Pacific Landfalling Jets Experiment
(PACJET):Marty Ralph, NOAA/ETL

1:45 The Impact of Offshore In-situ Observations on the Prediction of Coastal Wind and
Precipitation: A Case Study: Sarah Michelson, NOAA/ETL

2:00 Critical Verification of Synoptic\Mesoscale Structures and Processes in MM5 during

2:15 Mesoscale Observations of West Coast Land-Falling Storms using CALJET's Coastal
Profiler Array: Paul Neiman, NOAA, ETL

Session VIII: West Coast and Pacific Weather Features

2:30 Invited Talk: Complex Terrain and its Impacts. David Whiteman

3:00 Break

3:30 An Observational Study of Cold Pools in the Columbia Basin: C.D. Whiteman, S. Zhong,
W.J. Shaw, J.M. Hubbe, and X. Bian, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, and Jon Mittelstadt, NWS, Pendelton

3:45 A Numerical Study of Cold Pool Evolution in the Columbia Basin: S. Zhong, C.D.
Whiteman, W.J. Shaw, J.M. Hubbe, and X. Bian, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

4:00 The Orographic Jet at Delta Junction Alaska: Kraig Gilkey, Richard Thoman, John
Lingaas, Lee Kelley, WSFO Fairbanks, Alaska

4:15 The diurnal cycle of the Oregon coastal lower atmosphere during summertime: Soline Bielli, P. Barbour, R. Samelson, E. Skyllingstad,Oregon State University, J. Wilczak NOAA/ETL

4:30 Summation and closing remarks. Brad Colman, NWS