Pacific Northwest Weather Workshop 2018 April 27-28, 2018 Building 9 Auditorium NOAA Western Regional Center 7600 Sand Point Way, Seattle, WA 98115   Agenda (Subject to Amendment)

Friday, 27 April

12:00-1:00       Registration 1:00-1:15         Welcome and Workshop Plans                         Logan Johnson, MIC, NOAA/NWS WFO Seattle Session I:  Wildfire Meteorology I

1:15-2:00 Challenges in forecasting last summer’s wildfire smoke events and statewide air quality data summaries. Erik Saganic, Puget Sound Clean Air Agency and Ranil Dhammapala, WA State Dept of Ecology

2:00-2:15 Bringing Smoke Monitoring Data to the Public, Jonathan Callahan, Mazama Science

2:15-2:30 The Wine Country Fires of October 8-9, 2017, A Predictable Downslope Windstorm Event. Cliff Mass, University of Washington

2:30-3:00 Panel discussion of operational fire weather managers from around the state

3:00-3:30         Break with refreshments

3:30-3:45 Is climate change contributing to more active fire seasons across Eastern Washington and North Idaho? Jeremy Wolf, National Weather Service Forecast Office Spokane, WA

3:45-4:00 The PyroCb Wannabe of August 30, 2017 in Southern BC. Mindy Brugman and others

Session II:  OLYMPEX

4:00-4:15 The Olympic Mountains Experiment (OLYMPEX): Overview and status Lynn McMurdie and co-authors, UW

4:15-4:30 Upper-level enhancement of microphysical processes during OLYMPEX Angela Rowe and co-authors, UW

4:30-4:45 Modification of frontal and postfrontal precipitation by the Olympic Mountains during OLYMPEX. Joe Zagrodnik and co-authors, UW

4:45-5:00 Kelvin-Helmholtz Waves during OLYMPEX:  Observations, Simulations, and Microphysical Implications. Robert Conrick and co-authors, UW 

5:00-5:15 Atmospheric River Events as observed using the ground network in OLYMPEX Lynn McMurdie and Joe Zagrodnik, UW

5:15-5:30 Comparison of windward and leeside vertical profiles of radar reflectivity patterns during OLYMPEX. Jamin Rader and co-authors, UW

 6:00-9:00        Workshop Banquet at the Talaris Conference Center   4000 NE 41st St, Seattle, WA 98105 Banquet Talk:  The Impacts of Wildfire on PM and Ozone.

Professor Dan Jaffe, Professor and Chair, Physical Sciences Division, School of Science. Technology, Engineering and Math, UW Bothell

                               6:00-7:00 PM    Icebreaker – no host bar                         7:00-8:00            Buffet Dinner                         7:45-8:30              Presentation Saturday, April 28 8:30-9:00         Registration and coffee

Session III: Wildfire Meteorology II

9:00-9:15 Forecasting Air Quality from Fire Camp, a Case Study From a Day That Went Wrong. Janice Peterson, Air Resource Specialist, USDA Forest Service, Pacific Wildland Fire Sciences Lab, Seattle, WA

9:15-9:30 Eagle Creek and Chetco Bar Fires: Using Meteorologists in Strategic Planning for Large Fire Incidents. Shawn Weagle, NWS Portland

9:30-9:45 Development of Debris Flow/Flash Flood Guidance and Decision Support Services by WFO Portland in the Columbia River Gorge Following the Eagle Creek Fire of 2017. William R. Schneider, NWS Portland, OR

9:45-10:00 Communicating risk of excessive heat health stress for vulnerable populations. Danny Mercer. NWS Seattle.

Session IV: Weather Prediction and Local Weather

10:00-10:15         Improvements to the Northwest Weather Modeling System: High Resolution Ensembles.  Cliff Mass, University of Washington.

10:15-10:45    Coffee Break

10:45-11:15 The Mystery Tree Fall Near Lake Quinault. Nick Weber, Joe Zagrodnk, Robert Conrick, and Cliff Mass

Session V: Community Interactions and Communication

11:15-11:30 Trailhead Outreach: Analyzing Winter Backcountry Users' Education and Awareness of Avalanche Danger. Jonathan Chriest, Northwest Avalanche Center, UW Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences

11:30-11:45 Building Relationships with State Partners and the Role of the NWS State Liaison Office Megan L. Syner, Warning Coordination Meteorologist, National Weather Service Great Falls

11:45-12:00 Communicating warnings: Does Color Coding Help? Gala Galasik

Department of Psychology, UW

12:00-12:15 Next Level Community Engagement: Partnership Building to Solve Tomorrow's Problems. Logan Johnson, NWS Office Seattle

12:15-1:15      Lunch

Session VI:  Northwest Weather and Renewable Energy

1:15-1:30 Weather Scenarios with the Potential for Unexpected Drops in Wind Power Production. Charlie Phillips, Avangrid Renewables 

1:30-1:45 The Western Energy Imbalance Market (EIM): does high frequency forecasting incentivize more renewables in the Northwest?" Jeff Lerner, Vaisalla

Session VII: Northwest Weather and Climate

1:45-2:00 Monthly Atmospheric Circulations in the Pacific Northwest: Patterns and Trends. Nick Bond and Karin Bumbaco, Office of the Washington State Climatologist

2:00-2:15 Stormwater, Culverts, and Flooding: Putting Climate Projections to Use. Guillaume Mauger. Climate Impacts Group, UW Seattle

2:15-2:45 TBD 2:45-3:00       2017 Weather Cam Highlights.   Greg Johnson, SkunkBay Weather.