Pacific Northwest Weather Workshop 2018

April 27-28, 2018
Building 9 Auditorium
NOAA Western Regional Center
7600 Sand Point Way, Seattle, WA 98115
Agenda (Subject to Amendment)

Friday, 27 April

12:00-1:00       Registration

1:00-1:10         Welcome and Workshop Plans
                        Logan Johnson, MIC, NOAA/NWS WFO Seattle

Session I:  Wildfire Meteorology I

1:10-1:45 Challenges in forecasting last summer’s wildfire smoke events and statewide air quality data summaries. Erik Saganic, Puget Sound Clean Air Agency and Ranil Dhammapala, WA State Dept of Ecology

1:45-2:00 Bringing Smoke Monitoring Data to the Public, Jonathan Callahan, Mazama Science

2:00-2:15 The Wine Country Fires of October 8-9, 2017. A Predictable Downslope Windstorm Event. Cliff Mass, University of Washington

2:15-2:55 Incident Meteorologist Panel Discussion. Moderator: Josh Clark, Washington Department of Natural Resources.

Panel Members: Andy Haner, NWS Seattle, Dean Warner, WA Department of Natural Resources, Jeremy Wolf, National Weather Service Spokane, Michael Richmond, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Shawn Weagle, Incident Meteorologist, NWS Portland

2:55-3:30         Break with refreshments

3:30-3:45 Is climate change contributing to more active fire seasons across Eastern Washington and North Idaho? Jeremy Wolf, National Weather Service Forecast Office Spokane, WA

3:45-4:00 The PyroCb Wannabe of August 30, 2017 in Southern BC. Mindy Brugman and others

Session II:  OLYMPEX

4:00-4:20 The Olympic Mountains Experiment (OLYMPEX): Overview and status Lynn McMurdie and co-authors, UW

4:20-4:35 Atmospheric River Events as observed using the ground network in OLYMPEX Joe Zagrodnik, UW

4:35-4:50 Upper-level enhancement of microphysical processes during OLYMPEX Angela Rowe and co-authors, UW

4:50-5:05 Kelvin-Helmholtz Waves during OLYMPEX:  Observations, Simulations, and Microphysical Implications. Robert Conrick, Cliff Mass, Nick Weber, Joe Zagrodnik, UW 

5:10-5:20 Airborne Radar Observation of frontal and post-frontal precipitation during OLYMPEX. Joe Zagrodnik and co-authors, UW

 6:00-9:00        Workshop Banquet at the Talaris Conference Center  
4000 NE 41st St, Seattle, WA 98105

Banquet Talk:  The Impacts of Wildfire on Particulates and Ozone.

Professor Dan Jaffe, Professor and Chair, Physical Sciences Division, School of Science. Technology, Engineering and Math, UW Bothell

                        6:00-7:00 PM    Icebreaker – no host bar
                        7:00-8:00            Buffet Dinner
                        7:45-8:30              Presentation

Saturday, April 28

8:30-9:00         Registration and coffee

Session III: Wildfire Meteorology II

9:00-9:15 Forecasting Air Quality from Fire Camp, a Case Study from a Day That Went Wrong. Janice Peterson, Air Resource Specialist, USDA Forest Service, Pacific Wildland Fire Sciences Lab, Seattle, WA

9:15-9:30 Eagle Creek and Chetco Bar Fires: Using Meteorologists in Strategic Planning for Large Fire Incidents. Shawn Weagle, NWS Portland

9:30-9:45 Development of Debris Flow/Flash Flood Guidance and Decision Support Services by WFO Portland in the Columbia River Gorge Following the Eagle Creek Fire of 2017. William R. Schneider, NWS Portland, OR

9:45-10:00 Communicating risk of excessive heat health stress for vulnerable populations. Danny Mercer. NWS Seattle.

10:00-10:15 An On-Site Deployment Perspective of the Historic October 2017 Wine Country Wildfires Matthew Mehle and Warren Blier, National Weather Service Forecast Office, San Francisco Bay Area/Monterey

10:15-10:45    Coffee Break

10:45-11:00 BlueSky-Canada Forest-fire Smoke Predictions.  Prof. Roland Stull, Dept. of Earth, Ocean & Atmos. Sciences, University of British Columbia

11:00-11:15 The 2017 Record-Breaking Wildfire Season in the Northern Rockies Geographical Area (NRGA). Michael Richmond, Predictive Services USFS Northern Rockies Coordination Center

Session IV: Prediction and Local Weather

11:15-11:30         Improvements to the Northwest Weather Modeling System: High Resolution Ensembles.  Cliff Mass, University of Washington.

11:30-11:45 The Mystery Tree Fall Near Lake Quinault. Nick Weber, Joe Zagrodnk, Robert Conrick, and Cliff Mass

Session V: Community Interactions and Communication

11:45-12:00 Next Level Community Engagement: Partnership Building to Solve Tomorrow's Problems. Logan Johnson, NWS Office Seattle

12:00-1:00      Lunch

1:00-1:15 Building Relationships with State Partners and the Role of the NWS State Liaison Office Megan L. Syner, Warning Coordination Meteorologist, National Weather Service Great Falls

1:15-1:30 Communicating warnings: Does Color Coding Help? Gala Galasik

Department of Psychology, UW

1:30-1:45 Trailhead Outreach: Analyzing Winter Backcountry Users' Education and Awareness of Avalanche Danger. Jonathan Chriest, Northwest Avalanche Center, UW Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences

Session VI:  Northwest Weather and Renewable Energy

1:45-2:00 Weather Scenarios with the Potential for Unexpected Drops in Wind Power Production. Charlie Phillips, Avangrid Renewables 

2:00-2:15 The Western Energy Imbalance Market (EIM): does high frequency forecasting incentivize more renewables in the Northwest?" Jeff Lerner, Vaisalla

Session VII: Northwest Weather and Climate

2:15-2:30 Monthly Atmospheric Circulations in the Pacific Northwest: Patterns and Trends. Nick Bond and Karin Bumbaco, Office of the Washington State Climatologist

2:30-2:45 The Top Weather and Climate Events of 2017. Karin Bumbaco and Nick Bond Office of the Washington State Climatologist

2:45-3:00 Stormwater, Culverts, and Flooding: Putting Climate Projections to Use. Guillaume Mauger. Climate Impacts Group, UW Seattle

3:00-3:15       2017 Weather Cam Highlights.   Greg Johnson, SkunkBay Weather.