Pacific Northwest Weather Workshop – 2016

March 3-4, 2017
Building 9 Auditorium
NOAA Western Regional Center
7600 Sand Point Way, Seattle, WA 98115
Agenda (Subject to Amendment)

Friday, 3 March

12:00-1:00       Registration

1:00-1:15         Welcome and Workshop Plans
                        Logan Johnson, MIC, NOAA/NWS WFO Seattle

Session I:  The Olympex Field Experiment:  Observations and Initial Results

1:15-1:40         The Olympic Mountains Experiment (OLYMPEX): overview and preliminary results.  Lynn McMurdie and Robert Houze, University of Washington

1:40-1:55         Stratiform Precipitation Processes in Cyclones Passing over the Olympic Mountains. Joseph Zagrodnik, Lynn McMurdie, Robert Houze, University of Washington

1:55-2:10        Independent Evaluation of Frozen Precipitation from WRF and PRISM in the Olympic Mountains, WA, USA for Water Year 2016.  William Ryan Currier, Theodore Thorson & Jessica D. Lundquist, University of  Washington

2:10-2:25         Airborne Doppler radar observations of mid-latitude storms during OLYMPEX.
  Jennifer Dehart, UW

2:25-2:40         An Evaluation of Precipitation Forecasts during the Nov. 12-15, 2015 Period. Robert Conrick and Cliff Mass, University of Washington, Seattle

2:40-2:50        General discussion and questions about OLYMPEX

2:50-3:20         Break with refreshments

Session II:  Precipitation, Hydrology, and Severe Weather
3:20-3:35         Observed Precipitation Intensity Increase With More Warming and Less Acid Rain in BC and Yukon. Mindy Brugman, Gerry Holdsworth, David Fischer and others, Revelstoke, BC, Canada

3:35-3:50         Simulations of historical extreme Pacific Northwest precipitation. Todd Mitchell, Raquel Lorente-Plazas, Eric Salathe, Guillaume Mauger, and Rick Steed.  University of Washington

3:50-4:05         Proposal for an Atmospheric River Impacts Scale.  Lawrence Schick,

                         U.S. Army Corps of Engineers

4:05-4:20          Climate change: What does it mean for stormwater?   Guillame Mauger, Climate Impacts Group, UW

4:20-4:35         Hydrologic Model To Cover the Whole Nation - the National Water Model.  Brent Bower, NWS, Seattle

4:35-4:50         Short Range Probabilistic River Forecasting in the National Weather Service. Brent Bower, NWS, Seattle

4:50-5:05        Defining an Interagency Management Strategy for Washington Remote Automated Weather Stations.  Josh Clark,

                           Washington Department of Natural Resources

 6:00-9:00         Workshop Banquet at the Talaris Conference Center  

                        4000 NE 41st St, Seattle, WA 98105

Banquet Talk:   Communicating Climate Uncertainty
                       Jessica Engel, Climate Preparedness Specialist,King County’s Department of Natural Resources and Parks
                        6:00-7:00 PM    Icebreaker – no host bar
                        7:00-8:00            Buffet Dinner
                        7:45-8:30              Presentation

Saturday, March 4

8:30-9:00         Registration and coffee
Session III:  Weather Prediction

9:00-9:15         The Synoptic and Mesoscale Environment that Led to a Historic Snowstorm for the Portland, OR and Vancouver, WA Metro Areas on January 10-11, 2017. Colby Neuman, Jeremiah Pyle, Evan Bentley, Laurel McCoy, Bill Schneider. National Weather Service, Portland, Oregon

9:15-9:30         Improvements to the Northwest Weather Modeling System.  Cliff Mass, University of Washington.

9:30-9:45     Quantifying shifting winds and wildfires.  Brian Potter, U.S. Forest Service.

9:45-10:00    The 14 October, 2016 Manzanita, Oregon EF2 Tornado: A Case Study. Jeremiah Pyle, NWS  Portland, Oregon

10:00-10:15    Summer Weather in Washington State: Are Clouds more a Cause or Result of Cooler Maximum Temperatures?  Nicholas A. Bond and Karin A. Bumbaco. Office of the Washington State Climatologist

10:15-10:45    Coffee Break

10:45 -11:00   Elevated temperature and O3 in the western US in June 2015. Dan Jaffe, Lei Zhang, UW-Bothell

Session IV:  Forecast Uncertainty and Communication I

11:00-11:15     Weather and Community Organizing: The Challenges of Building a Weather-Ready Nation in Undeserved Populations" Logan Johnson, NWS, Seattle Washington

11:15-11:30    The October 15, 2016 Windstorm:  What Went Wrong?  Cliff Mass, UW

11:30-11:45   The Effects of Forecast Consistency and Accuracy on User Trust.  Susan Joslyn, Jessica Burgeno.  Dept of Psychology, University of Wa

11:45-12:00     Communicating Forecast Uncertainty at the National Weather Service Office in Portland, Oregon During the Active Winter of 2016/2017, Bill Schneider, NWS Portland


Session V:  Forecast Uncertainty and Communication II

1:00-1:15  Changes to NWS operations and communications since the October 15 windstorm.  Logan Johnson, NWS, Seattle

1:15-2:15         Media Panel Discussion on Communicating Forecast Uncertainty

- TV - MJ McDermott(Q-13)
- Radio - Rick Van Cise (KOMO)
- Print - Chuck Taylor (Everett Herald)
- Web - Scott Sistek (KOMO News)
- Blogger - Charlie Phillips (weathertogether)

NWS Social Science Training Initiatives: Emphasis on IDSS.  Kirby Cook, NWS Seattle

Session VI: Northwest Weather and Climate

2:30-2:45    The Top Weather and Climate Events of 2016.  Karin Bumbaco and Nick Bond.  Office of the Washington State Climatologist

2:45-3:00       2016 Cam Highlights.   Greg Johnson, SkunkBay Weather.