Pacific Northwest Weather Workshop – 2016


March 4-5, 2016

Building 9 Auditorium

NOAA Western Regional Center

7600 Sand Point Way, Seattle, WA 98115


Agenda (Subject to Amendment)


Friday, 4 March

12:00-1:00       Registration

1:00-1:15         Welcome and Workshop Plans

                        Logan Johnson, MIC, NOAA/NWS WFO Seattle


Session I:  The Olympex Field Experiment:  Observations and Initial Results


1:15-1:30         OLYMPEX: Why did NASA Choose the Olympic Mountains to Test a Satellite? Robert A. Houze. University of Washington.

1:30-1:45         The OLYMPEX field project: observational network design and daily operations. Lynn McMurdie.  University of Washington.

1:45-2:00         A Day in the life of an OLYMPEX weather forecaster. Jen DeHart, Nick Weber and Luke Madaus. University of Washington

2:00-2:15         From synoptic to microscale: a case study of a frontal passage using multiple OLYMPEX observations. Hannah Barnes. University of Washington

2:15-2:30         Microphysical processes during OLYMPEX: insight from a research S-band polarimetric radar.  Angela Rowe. University of Washington

2:30-2:45         Orographic enhancement of precipitation as observed by a DOW X-band radar during the OLYMPEX field campaign.  Megan Chaplin.  University of Washington

2:45-3:00         Variations in raindrop concentration and size distribution during heavily precipitating storms on the Olympic Peninsula. Joe Zagrodnik. University of Washington


3:00-3:30        Coffee Break


3:30-3:45         Olympic Efforts to measure Olympic Snow. William Ryan Currier, Teddy Thorson, Colin Butler, Derek Beal, Bill Baccus, and Jessica Lundquist.  University of Washington and U.S. Park Service

3:45-4:00         Precipitation variability in the Chehalis River Basin during OLYMPEX. Diana Gergel and Bart Nijssen.  University of Washington


Session II:  WFIP2 Field Program and New Observations.


4:00-4:30         Overview of WFIP2:  Justin Sharp, Sharply Focused LLP


4:30-4:45         The Second Wind Forecast Improvement Project:  Event Log and Case Studies.  Eric Grimit, Vaisalla

4:45-5:00         Rainfall in a Smart City: developments in measurement and prediction at the City of Seattle.  James Rufo Hill, Seattle Public Utilities

5:00-5:15         Improved Snow Level Simulations by Using Precipitation Rate.  Mindy       Brugman

5:15-5:30         The PUD’s challenges during the two record-breaking wind storms of         2015. Mark Oens, Snohomish County PUD




6:00-9:00         Workshop Banquet at the Talaris Conference Center  

                        4000 NE 41st St, Seattle, WA 98105


Banquet Speaker: Lynn McMurdie, Chief Scientist Olympex and UW Research Scientist.


Topic:   The Olympex Field Experiment:  Interesting Stories and Adventures.


                        6:00-7:00 PM    Icebreaker – no host bar

                        7:00-8:00            Buffet Dinner

                        7:45-8:30         Presentation


Saturday, March 1


Session III:   Alaska Weather


8:00-8:30         Registration and coffee


8:30-8:45         An Assessment of a Late Season Hurricane-Force Low Striking Southeast Alaska. Richard Lam, NWS Juneau Forecast Office

8:45-9:00         Operational NWP using cloud computing. David Siuta, Henryk Modzelewski, Gregory West, Roland Schigas, and Roland Stull

University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada


Session IV:  Weather Prediction:  Modeling and Other Aspects


9:00-9:15         Diagnosing Sneaker Wave Threat. David Elson, National Weather                                        Service, Portland Oregon

9:15-9:30         Why Are Long-Range Forecasts So Poor?  Cliff Mass, University of Washington.

9:30-9:45         Atmospheric River Forecasting Tools. Jon Rutz, Jason Cordeira, and Marty Ralph. National Weather Service, Western Region Science Division, Salt Lake City, UT, Plymouth State University, Plymouth, NH, Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes at UCSD/Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA

9:45-10:10       Short-term Wind Forecasts in Complex Terrain. David Siuta, The University of British Columbia


10:10-10:40    Coffee Break


10:40-10:55     The impact of regional soil-moisture errors on WRF near-surface forecasts

Jeffrey Massey. The Climate Corporation


Session IV:  Drought and fire weather


10:55-11:10     Smoke Forecasting for the Washington State 2015 Wildfire Season. Marlin Enid Martínez., Susan O’Neill; Sim Larkin; Miriam Rorig; Robert Salomon. U.S Forest Service

11:10-11:25     The 2014-2015 Snow Drought in Washington State: what Does It Tell Us About Future Drought Risk? Joe Casola, Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington

11:25-11:40 The Year of Living Snowlessly:  Washington’s 2015 Drought
Jeff Marti Washington Department of Ecology

11:40-12:15  Tragedy Fires: What Can We Learn in the weather community?

Andy Haner, National Weather Service, Seattle


12:15-1:15      Lunch


1:15-1:30         What brings smoke from prescribed fires into town? A meteorological analysis of smoke intrusions into Bend, Oregon

Colton Miller1, Susan O’Neill2, Miriam Rorig2, Sim Larkin2, Rick Graw2

UW1, USDA Forest Service2


Session V:  Regional Climate


1:30-1:45 Inter-model variance in Northwest CMIP5 model precipitation due to jet

variability. Naomi Goldenson, Guillaume Mauger, and Cecilia Bitz University of Washington and Ruby Leung, PNNL

1:45-2:00   The Top Weather and Climate Events of 2015. Karin Bumbaco and Nick  

            Bond Office of the Washington State Climatologist


Session VI: Northwest Weather and Climate


2:00-2:15         November 17th historic windstorm in Eastern Washington and North

Idaho. Jeremy Wolf/ National Weather Service Forecast Office, Spokane, WA

2:15-2:30         Rare Damaging Southwesterly Wind Event in the Columbia Gorge on November 17th, 2015. Laurel McCoy. National Weather Service, Portland, Or.

2:30-2:45         Why Should Weather Geeks Pay Attention to the Ocean?      Nicholas A

            Bond.  State Climatologist

2:45-3:00         Did Antecedent Hot and Dry Weather Contribute to An Unusual Level of Tree Damage During the 29 Aug 2015 Windstorm? Wolf Read, UBC

3:00-3:15         Use of the Swiss SNOWPACK modeling system at WFO Missoula, Montana. Chris Gibson NWS

3:15-3:30         An Evaluation of the Heavy Rain Event for Sitka, Alaska on August 18,

                        2015 Richard Lamb.  NWS Juneau Forecast Office

3:30-3:45         WeatherCam Spectacular:  Greg Johnson, SkunkBay Weather