Pacific Northwest Weather
Workshop Ð 2016
March 4-5, 2016
Building 9 Auditorium
NOAA Western Regional Center
7600 Sand Point Way, Seattle, WA 98115
Agenda (Subject to Amendment)
Friday, 4 March
12:00-1:00 Registration
1:00-1:15 Welcome and Workshop Plans
Logan Johnson, MIC, NOAA/NWS WFO Seattle
Session I: The Olympex Field Experiment: Observations and Initial Results
1:15-1:30 OLYMPEX: Why did NASA Choose the Olympic Mountains to Test a Satellite? Robert A. Houze. University of Washington.
1:30-1:45 The OLYMPEX field project: observational network design and daily operations. Lynn McMurdie. University of Washington.
1:45-2:00 A Day in the life of an OLYMPEX weather forecaster. Jen DeHart, Nick Weber and Luke Madaus. University of Washington
2:00-2:15 From synoptic to microscale: a case study of a frontal passage using multiple OLYMPEX observations. Hannah Barnes. University of Washington
2:15-2:30 Microphysical processes during OLYMPEX: insight from a research S-band polarimetric radar. Angela Rowe. University of Washington
2:30-2:45 Orographic enhancement of precipitation as observed by a DOW X-band radar during the OLYMPEX field campaign. Megan Chaplin. University of Washington
2:45-3:00 Variations in raindrop concentration and size distribution during heavily precipitating storms on the Olympic Peninsula. Joe Zagrodnik. University of Washington
3:00-3:30 Coffee
Break
3:30-3:45 Olympic Efforts to measure Olympic Snow. William Ryan Currier, Teddy Thorson, Colin Butler, Derek Beal, Bill Baccus, and Jessica Lundquist. University of Washington and U.S. Park Service
3:45-4:00 Precipitation variability in the Chehalis River Basin during OLYMPEX. Diana Gergel and Bart Nijssen. University of Washington
Session II: WFIP2 Field Program and New
Observations.
4:00-4:30 Overview of WFIP2: Justin Sharp, Sharply Focused LLP
4:45-5:00 Rainfall in a Smart City:
developments in measurement and prediction at the City of Seattle. James Rufo Hill, Seattle Public
Utilities
5:00-5:15 Improved
Snow Level Simulations by Using Precipitation Rate. Mindy Brugman
5:15-5:30 The
PUDÕs challenges during the two record-breaking wind storms of 2015.
Mark Oens, Snohomish County PUD
6:00-9:00 Workshop Banquet at the Talaris Conference Center
4000 NE 41st St, Seattle, WA 98105
Banquet Speaker: Lynn McMurdie, Chief Scientist Olympex and UW Research Scientist.
Topic: The Olympex Field Experiment: Interesting Stories and Adventures.
6:00-7:00 PM Icebreaker Ð no host bar
7:00-8:00 Buffet Dinner
7:45-8:30 Presentation
Saturday, March 1
Session III: Alaska Weather
8:00-8:30 Registration
and coffee
8:30-8:45 An Assessment of a Late Season Hurricane-Force Low Striking Southeast Alaska. Richard Lam, NWS Juneau Forecast Office
8:45-9:00 Operational NWP using cloud computing. David Siuta, Henryk Modzelewski, Gregory West, Roland Schigas, and Roland Stull
University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada
Session IV: Weather Prediction: Modeling and Other Aspects
9:00-9:15 Diagnosing Sneaker Wave Threat. David Elson, National Weather Service, Portland Oregon
9:15-9:30 Why
Are Long-Range Forecasts So Poor? Cliff
Mass, University of Washington.
9:30-9:45 Atmospheric River Forecasting Tools. Jon Rutz, Jason Cordeira, and Marty Ralph. National Weather Service, Western Region Science Division, Salt Lake City, UT, Plymouth State University, Plymouth, NH, Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes at UCSD/Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA
9:45-10:10 Short-term Wind Forecasts in Complex Terrain. David Siuta, The University of British Columbia
10:10-10:40 Coffee
Break
10:40-10:55 The impact of regional soil-moisture errors on WRF near-surface forecasts
Jeffrey Massey. The Climate Corporation
Session IV: Drought and fire weather
10:55-11:10 Smoke
Forecasting for the Washington State 2015 Wildfire Season. Marlin Enid Mart’nez.,
Susan OÕNeill; Sim Larkin; Miriam Rorig; Robert Salomon. U.S Forest Service
11:10-11:25 The 2014-2015 Snow Drought in Washington State: what Does It Tell Us About Future Drought Risk? Joe Casola, Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington
11:25-11:40 The
Year of Living Snowlessly:
WashingtonÕs 2015 Drought
Jeff Marti Washington Department of Ecology
11:40-12:15 Tragedy Fires: What Can We Learn in the
weather community?
Andy
Haner, National Weather Service, Seattle
12:15-1:15 Lunch
1:15-1:30 What brings smoke from prescribed fires into town? A meteorological analysis of smoke intrusions into Bend, Oregon
Colton Miller1, Susan OÕNeill2, Miriam Rorig2, Sim Larkin2, Rick Graw2
UW1, USDA Forest Service2
Session V: Regional Climate
1:30-1:45 Inter-model variance in Northwest CMIP5 model precipitation due to jet
variability. Naomi Goldenson, Guillaume Mauger, and Cecilia Bitz University of Washington and Ruby Leung, PNNL
1:45-2:00 The Top Weather and Climate Events of 2015. Karin Bumbaco and Nick
Bond Office of the Washington State Climatologist
Session VI: Northwest
Weather and Climate
2:00-2:15 November 17th historic windstorm in Eastern Washington and North
Idaho. Jeremy Wolf/ National Weather Service Forecast Office, Spokane, WA
2:15-2:30 Rare Damaging Southwesterly Wind Event in the Columbia Gorge on November 17th, 2015. Laurel McCoy. National Weather Service, Portland, Or.
2:30-2:45 Why Should Weather Geeks Pay Attention to the
Ocean? Nicholas
A
Bond. State Climatologist
2:45-3:00 Did Antecedent Hot and Dry Weather Contribute to An Unusual Level of Tree Damage During the 29 Aug 2015 Windstorm? Wolf Read, UBC
3:00-3:15 Use of the Swiss SNOWPACK modeling system at WFO Missoula, Montana. Chris Gibson NWS
3:15-3:30 An Evaluation of the Heavy Rain Event for Sitka, Alaska on August 18,
2015 Richard Lamb. NWS Juneau Forecast Office
3:30-3:45 WeatherCam Spectacular: Greg Johnson, SkunkBay Weather