Pacific Northwest Weather Workshop -- 2003

 

7 and 8 March

Building 9 Auditorium

NOAA Western Regional Campus

Seattle, Washington

 

DRAFT 1/23/03

 

Friday, 7 March

 

8:00 - 9:00       REGISTRATION

9:00 - 9:05       OPENING REMARKS

                        Chris Hill, Meteorologist in Charge, NWS Seattle

 

9:05 - 9:30       National Weather Service Science and Technology Infusion Plan. Jack Hayes, National Weather Service, Silver Spring, MD                

 

Session 1:       FIELD PROGRAMS AND OBSERVATIONS

                        Chairperson:

 

9:30 - 9:45       Overview of the IMPROVE Project. Mark Stoelinga, Department of Atmospheric Sciences

 

9:45 - 10:00     Precipitation Processes in an Offshore Occluded System Observed during IMPROVE-1. Amanda Evans, J.D. Locatelli, M.T. Stoelinga, and P.V. Hobbs, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington          

 

10:00 - 10:15   Precipitation Processes in an Orographic Precipitation System Observed During IMPROVE-2. C.P. Woods, M.T. Stoelinga, J.D.Locatelli, and P.V. Hobbs, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington          

 

10:15 - 10:30   Verifying Model Simulation during IMPROVE-2. Matt Garvert and Cliff Mass, University of Washington

 

10:30 – 11:00 BREAK

 

 

Session 2:       FIELD PROGRAMS AND OBSERVATIONS (continued)

                        Chairperson:

          

11:00 - 11:15   Evaluation of an Experimental Snow-Level Product by West Coast Forecasters. Louisa B. Nance (CIRES/NOAA/ETL), D.J. Gottas (CIRES/NOAA/ETL), A.N. Keane (NOAA/ETL), A.B. White (CIRES/NOAA/ETL), W.R. Schneider(NWS, Portland, OR), and F.M. Ralph (NOAA/ETL)    

 

11:15 - 11:30   Surface-based Measurements of Precipitation Characteristics at Air Temperatures near Zero degrees C. Sandra E. Yuter, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, L.B. Nance, CIRES/NOAA/ETL, Boulder, CO, and M. Loffler-Mang, University of Applied Sciences, Saarbruken, Germany

 

11:30 - 11:45   Why We Need a Coastal Radar. Cliff Mass, University of Washington

 

11:45 - 12:00   Measurements of Visibility and Optical Attenuation in the Sammamish Valley. Ken W. Fischer, Michael Witiw, Jeff Baars, Eric Eisenberg, Janae Nash, Terabeam Corporation

 

 

           

 

          

 

 

12:00 - 1:00     LUNCH

 

Session 3:       Climate and Climate Services

                        Chairperson:

 

1:00 - 1:15       Western Region Climate Center. Kelly Redmond, Western Region Climate Center, Reno, NV        

 

1:15 – 1:30      Real-Time Application of the Influence of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) on Precipitation in Washington State: November-December 2002. Nicholas Bond and Gabriel Vecchi, NOAA/PMEL and UW/JISAO       

 

1:30 - 1:45       A Modernized Cooperative Observer Network. Andrew Horvitz, NOAA/NWS/Office of Climate, Water, and Weather Services, Silver Spring, Maryland

 

1:45 - 2:00       Application of Downscaling in NWS Western Region Operational Climate Forecasts. Marina Timofeyeva, ²Andrea Bair, ²David Unger, ¹UCAR/NWS/NOAA; ²NWS/NOAA

 

2:00 - 2:15       Has Global Change Already Arrived in the Northwest? Philip Mote, JISAO/SMA Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington

 

2:15 - 2:45       Panel Discussion: What will the Northwest Climate be like in 2050? Members: Nate Mantua, Phil Mote, Richard Palmer, Cliff Mass, Mike Wallace

           

2:45 – 3:30      BREAK AND POSTER SESSION

           

Session 4:       POSTER SESSION

 

                        Experimental MM5 Short-Range Ensemble Forecast Products at NWS Seattle. Eric Grimit and Brad Colman

 

                        Verification of Station Temperature Translations from CPC Probability of Exceedance Seasonal Outlooks. Andrea Bair, M. Timofeyeva, D. Unger, and K. Moser

 

                        AMS Mesoscale Conference Poster. Justin Sharp, University of Washington

 

                  Waves, our Canadian buoys, and the new tri-axial instrument pack that will be tested on the La Peruse buoy. Laurie Neil, Environment Canada.

 

Session 5:     PHENOMENOLOGICAL STUDIES

                        Chairperson: Nick Bond, NOAA/PMEL, U of WA/JISAO

 

3:30 – 3:45      Gap Flow in the Columbia River Gorge. Justin Sharp, University of Washington

 

3:45 – 4:00      Columbia Basin Fog and Low Stratus. Jon Mittelstadt, National Weather Service, Pendleton, OR.

 

4:00 – 4:15      Seasonal variation of fog and low clouds in San Francisco. Michael Witiw, Ken Fischer, Jeff Baars, Terabeam

                       

4:15 – 4:30      From Forecasting to Fujita: Changes in Information about Tornadoes. Dan McCarthy, NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Norman, OK      

 

                        Afternoon session ends; leave for Museum of Flight

 

5:00 - 6:00       Museum of Flight, Boeing Field - self-guided tour preceding banquet.

 

6:00                 Banquet in the Skyline Room at the Museum of Flight, Boeing Field. Nick Bond will discuss the Farmers Almanac and tell us just how accurate they really are with their published forecasts. Cash bar with dinner catered by McCormick and Schmick's.

 

 

 

Saturday, 2 March 2002

 

 

Session 6:       NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTON

                        Chairperson: Mary Jane McDermott, KCPQ TV

 

8:30 - 9:00       NCEP Update. Louis Uccellini, NCEP, National Weather Service, Camp Springs, MD

 

9:00 - 9:15       Status, Performance, and Plans for the NCEP Short Range Ensemble Forecast System"

                        M. Steven Tracton and Jun Du, ONR and NCEP

 

9:15 – 9:30      The NCEP Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model: Description and Performance over the Western United States. Eric Rogers, Thomas Black, Hui-ya Chuang, and Geoffrey DiMego, Mesoscale Modeling Branch, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC

 

9:30 – 9:45      Update on the University of Washington MM5 Real-Time Prediction System.

Clifford F. Mass, Mark Albright, and David Ovens, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, U of WA,Seattle

 

9:45 - 10:00     The Influence of Model Uncertainty on Short-Range Ensemble Forecasts.

                        F. Anthony Eckel, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, U of WA, Seattle

 

10:00 – 10:30 BREAK

 

10:30 –10:45   Toward Prediction of Mesoscale Forecast Skill.

Eric P. Grimit, U of WA/NWS, Seattle; F. Anthony Eckel, and Clifford F. Mass, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, U of WA, Seattle

 

10:45 - 11:00   Major Forecast Busts along the West Coast. Lynn McMurdie and C. Mass, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle

 

11:00 – 11:15  Mesoscale Ensemble Data Analysis and Prediction. Greg Hakim, UW.

 

11:15 – 11:30 An Automated Mesoscale Forecast Verification System. Scott Sandgathe, UW APL

 

11:30-11:45     Analysis of the Surface Layer Diurnal Temperature Cycle in the MM5 Forecast Model.

                        Ralph Foster, Matthew Wyant, James McCaa, Sue Ferguson, Cliff Mass

 

11:45 - 12:15   PANEL DISCUSSION: What is the future of Weather Forecasting over the Northwest?

 

12:15 - 1:15     LUNCH

 

 

Session 7:       APPLICATIONS

                        Chairperson: Lynn McMurdie, U of WA, Seattle

 

1:15 - 1:30       Improvements and Financial Benefits of Wind Energy Forecasting. Kristin Larson, 3 Tier Environmental Forecasting Group.       

 

1:30 - 1:45       Forecasting Streamflow with the UW Hydrometeorological Forecast System. Ed Maurer, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle

 

1:45 – 2:00      Using an Extended Run of the MM5 as Initialization Grids for the NWS Interactive Forecast Preparation System (IFPS). Brad Colman, National Weather Service, and Dave Ovens, University of Washington

 

2:00 – 2:15      ARROWS Transportation Prediction System. Mark Maciver and R. Steed, University of Washington.

 

2:15 - 2:30       The Use of NASA Land Data Assimilated Products to Improve Flood and Drought Risk Analysis and Forecasting for Water Resources Management in the Columbia River Basin. Kristi R. Arsenault, University of Maryland – Baltimore County, Greenbelt, MD, P.R. Houser (NASA/GSFC), D. Matthews, C. Hartzell, S. Meyer (U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, Denver, CO), and W. Sharp (U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, Upper Columbia Office, Yakima, WA)      

 

2:30 - 2:45       Assessing the Value of Increased Model Resolution in Forecasting Fire Danger. Jeanne Hoadley, M. Rorig, and S. Ferguson, USDA, Forest Service, Seattle Forestry Laboratory, Seattle, WA

 

2:45 –3:15       BREAK

 

3:15- 3:30        Utilization of MM5 Forecasts for Air Quality Forecasting, the AIRPACT and ClearSky Projects. Joseph K. Vaughan and Brian, Laboratory for Atmospheric Research, Washington State University, Pullman, WA     

 

3:30 – 3:45      Aviation Forecasting at Whidbey Island: Challenges and Rewards. LT Victoria L. Taber, Naval Air Station, Whidbey Island

                       

3:45 – 4:00      Nonlinear Post-Processing of Model Output. Caren Marzban, University of Oklahoma and University of Washington

 

CONCLUDING REMARKS

                        Brad Colman, NWS, Seattle

 

Please note: Next year’s Pacific Northwest Weather Workshop will be held Friday and Saturday, 27 and 28 February, 2004. This will be advertised at the current workshop web site. The web page address is:

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/maciver/pnw/.

 

Those without computers are asked to provide their name, phone number and address so that we can mail you a registration form for next year’s workshop. Thank you everyone!