1999 Pacific Northwest Weather Workshop
Friday, 26 February 1999
8:30-8:45 Welcome and Bureaucratic Details: Cliff Mass and Chris Hill
Session I: Diagnosing Precipitation
8:45-9:00 Operational Enhancements in the WSR-88D Precipitation Processing Subsystem. Tim O'Bannon, WSR-88D Operational Support Facility. Norman, Oklahoma
9:00-9:15 Radar Precipitation Estimate Case Studies in Mountainous Terrain. Dan Berkowitz, NWS, Operational Support Facility, Norman, OK
9:15-9:30 Precipitation Observation in the Coastal Northwestern United States. How Useful is Radar? Ken Westrick, Cliff Mass, and Brian Colle, University of Washington
9:30-9:45 Radar Reflectivity and Rainfall in the Western Coastal Mountains. Sandra Yuter and Grant Gray, UW
9:45-10:00 Proposed Extension of Radar Coverage over the Pacific and the Washington/Oregon Coast. Grant Gray, UW and Sandra Yuter
10:00-10:15 Dual-Gauge Verification of NEXRAD Precipitation Estimates In Mountainous Terrain. David Levinson and Clayton Hanson, USDA-ARS, Boise, ID
10:15-10:45 Coffee Break
10:45-11:00 Derived Digital Data Use in Western Region Forecast Offices. Kevin Schrab, NWS Western Region, Scientific Services Division
11:00-11:15 Satellite Estimation of Precipitation Using Spectral Information. Rod Scofield, NESDIS
11:15-11:30 An Assessment of the Inadequacy of Low-Elevation Snow Depth Observations. Chris Burke, NWS, Seattle
11:30-11:45 Group Discussion: Will We Ever Accurately Diagnose Precipitation Over the Mountainous West?
11:45-12:45 Lunch
Session II: Evaluating Mesoscale Model Precipitation Over Orography
12:45-1:00 Evaluation of the MM5 Precipitation Forecasts over the Pacific Northwest During the 1997-1998 Cool Season. Brian Colle, Clifford Mass, and Kenneth Westrick, Atmospheric Sciences, UW
1:00-1:15 Preliminary Results of a Detailed Numerical Simulation of the 19 November 1996 Eastern Washington and Northern Idaho Ice Storm. Daran Rife and Ronald Miller, NWS-Spokane, David Bright, NWS, Tuscon
1:15-1:30 Some Preliminary Sensitivity Tests and "What Ifs" of the MM5 Applied to the 19 November 1996 Eastern Washington and Northern Idaho Ice Storm. Daran Rife and Ronald Miller, NWS-Spokane, David Bright, NWS, Tuscon
1:30-1:45 Initial Assessment of Mesoscale NWSP Guidance for Short-Term Precipitation Forecasts over Southwestern BC. Aaron McCay, Environment Canada
Session III: Hydrological Modeling
1:45-2:00 Flood Forecasting Using a Spatially Distributed Hydrology Model. Part I: Model Description and Testing. Pascal Storck, Bart Nijssen, Dennis Lettenmaier, Civil and Environmental Engineering, and Ken Westrick, Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington
2:00-2:15 Flood Forecasting Using a Spatially Distributed Hydrology Model. Part II: Calibration, and Implementation. Ken Westrick, University of Washington.
2:15-2:30 Flood Forecasting Using a Spatially Distributed Hydrology Model. Part III: An Early Evaluation. Doug McDonnal, NWS, and Kenneth Westrick, University of Washington, NWS
2:30-3:00 Coffee Break
3:00-3:15 Applied Distributed Atmospheric and Watershed Modeling for Dam Safety Studies. Euben Lu, Power Supply Engineering, BC Hydro
3:15-3:30 Water and Streamflow Forecasting for BC Hydro. Doug McCollor and Stephanie Smith, BC Hydro
Session IV: Flooding and Mudslides
3:30-3:45 Mudslides and Flooding in Juneau. Amy Saviers, NWS, Juneau
3:45-4:00 West Coast Flooding Events Used In the COMET Hydrometeorology Course. Matt Kelsch, COMET, Boulder, CO
4:00-4:15 Use of SAR Data to Monitor Ice Jams at the Alaskan River Forecast Center. Arleen Lunsford, NWS, Anchorage
4:15-4:30 Flooding on the Skokomish River. Doug McDonnal, NWS, Seattle
4:30-4:45 Forecasting Precipitation for the Oregon Debris Flow Warning Program. Mike Ziolko and Jim Trost, Oregon Department of Forestry
4:45-5:00 A Frequency Analysis of Snowpack Equivalent Data. Gerald Nibler, NWS, Anchorage
Dinner at Ivar’s Salmon House
5:45-6:45 No-host cocktail hour
6:45-7:45 Dinner
7:45-8:45 After dinner talk and discussion
Speaker: George Miller, Retired NWS Area Manager for Oregon
Topic: Floating Houses and Businesses, The Great Willamette River Flood of December 1861
Saturday, 27 February 1999
Session V: Regional Air Quality
8:30-8:45 Meteorological Effects on Aerosol Composition in Seattle 1996-1997. Naydene Maykut and Ken Knowle, Puget Sound Air Pollution Control Agency
Session VI: Regional Numerical Weather Prediction
8:45-9:00 Mesoscale Model Horizontal Resolution Necessary to Capture Orographic Effects in British Columbia. Henryk Modzelewski, Geography-Atmospheric Sciences, Univ. of British Columbia
9:00-9:15 Numerical Forecast Accuracy vs. Compiler Optimizations. Hacker, Geography-Atmospheric Sciences, Univ. of British Columbia
9:15-9:30 The Northwest Real-Time MM5 Modeling System. Current status and future plans. Cliff Mass and Mark Albright, UW
9:30-9:45 Verification of the MM5 Output: David Ovens, Cliff Mass, Brian Colle and Ken Westrick, UW
9:45-10:00 Application of Ensemble Prediction to Pacific Northwest Weather. Steve Tracton, NWS/NCEP/EMC
10:00-10:30 BREAK
10:30-11:00 Group Discussion: Higher Resolution, Better Physics, Improved Initialization, Ensemble: Where is the Future of PNW Numerical Weather Prediction?
Session VII: Major West Coast Field Experiments: COAST, CALJET, and NOPP 1999
11:00-11:15 High Resolution Observations and Numerical Simulations of Gap Flow through the Strait of Juan de Fuca on 9-10 December 1995. Brian Colle and Cliff Mass, UW
11:15-11:30 The California Land-Falling Jets Experiment (CALJET) : Summary of Offshore Observations. Louisa Bogar Nance, ETL, Boulder, CO
11:30-11:45 The California Land-Falling Jets Experiment (CALJET) : Summary of Coastal Observations. Paul Neiman, ETL, Boulder, CO
11:45-12:00 Observational and Numerical Aspects of the 5 February 1988 CALJET Storm. Wendell Nuss and Douglas Miller, Naval Postgraduate School
12:00-12:15 OSU Coastal Ocean NOPP 1999: A Look Ahead. Roger Samelson, Oregon State University
12:15-1:15 LUNCH
Session VIII: West Coast and Pacific Weather Features
1:15-1:30 The Weather of Georgia Basin of British Columbia. Owen Lange, Environment Canada
1:30-1:45 The Structure and Evolution of a Kona Low. Steve Businger and Ian Morrison, University of Hawaii
1:45-2:00 Verification of a 2-D Model Of Windstorms Near Juneau. Mike Mitchell, NWS, Juneau, and Louisa Bogar Nance, ETL
2:00-2:15 Effect of the Olympic Mountain Convergence Zone on the Lower Fraser Valley. Roland Stull, Geography-Atmospheric Sciences, Univ. of British Columbia
2:15-2:30 An Investigation of Anchorage Wind Events with the RAMS Model. John Papineau and Carven Scott, NWS, Anchorage Forecast Office
Session IX: El Nino and Longer Term Trends in Northwest Weather
2:30-2:45 The Pacific Decadal Oscillation: a bigger deal for the Northwest than El Nino? Phil Mote, Climate Impacts Group, JISAO
2:45-3:00 Columbia River Streamflow Forecasting Based on ENSO and PDO Climate Signals, Alan Hamlet, Civil Engineering, University of Washington
3:00-3:15 ENSO’s Influence on Puget Sound Windstorms. Nick Bond, JISAO/UW and NOAA/PMEL
3:15-3:30 Summation and closing remarks. Brad Colman, NWS