Mesoscale Conference Strawman I 3/20/2001

Monday, July 30, 2001

9:00 Welcome and Meeting Overview - Mass and Burnett

Joint Session I: REVIEW OF MAJOR MESOSCALE MODELING SYSTEMS

9:10 AM (23428) OPERATIONAL OVERVIEW OF NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION (NWP) AT THE AIR FORCE WEATHER AGENCY (AFWA). Ed Bensman, Air Force Weather Agency, Offutt AFB, NE; and J. Wegiel, S. Applequist, and S. Hausman

9:30 (MESO (23191) THE NEXT VERSION OF THE CANADIAN OPERATIONAL GEM REGIONAL MESOSCALE MODEL. Jocelyn Mailhot, MSC, Dorval, PQ, Canada; and S. Belair, A. Tremblay, A. Methot, B. Bilodeau, L.-P. Crevier, and A. Glazer Canadian GEM

9:50 (22711) RECENT AND PLANNED CHANGES TO THE NCEP ETA ANALYSIS AND FORECAST SYSTEM. Eric Rogers, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and T. Black, G. DiMego, Y. Lin, K. Mitchell, D. Parrish, M. Ek, and B. Ferrier

10:10 (MESO 22839) RECENT DEVELOPMENTS OF THE COUPLED OCEAN/ATMOSPHERE MESOSCALE PREDICTION SYSTEM (COAMPS). Teddy R. Holt, NRL, Monterey, CA; and S. Chen, D. Westphal, and R. Hodur

10:30 BREAK

11:00 (MESO 3297) PROTOTYPES FOR THE WRF (Weather Research and Forecast) MODEL

Joseph B. Klemp, William C. Skamarock, Jimy Dudhia, NCAR, Boulder, CO;

11:20 CURRENT STATUS OF THE ARPS MODELING SYSTEM. Kelvin Droegemeier, University of Oklahoma.

11:40 Flexible Discussion time (20 minutes to be when needed after the above talks)

12-1:00 Lunch

Joint Weather Briefing by Miami NWS WFO

SESSION II: IMPROVING UNDERSTANDING OF PHYSICAL PROCESSES AND THEIR PARAMETERIZATIONS

1:00: (23239) ON THE IMPORTANCE OF SATURATION EFFECTS IN THE TURBULENCE SCHEME OF A MESOSCALE MODEL. David R. Stauffer, Penn State Univ., University Park, PA; and R. C. Munoz and N. L. Seaman

1:15 (22491) RECENT IMPROVEMENTS FOR SURFACE AND MICROPHYSICAL SCHEMES IN THE MESONH MESOSCALE MODEL. Patrick Jabouille, CNRM, Toulouse, France; and J.-P. Pinty, V. Masson, and F. Solmon

1:30 (23141) PRELIMINARY RESULTS FROM IMPROVE: A FIELD STUDY TO VERIFY AND IMPROVE BULK MICROPHYSICAL PARAMETERIZATIONS IN MESOSCALE MODELS. Mark T. Stoelinga, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and P. V. Hobbs, J. D. Locatelli, and C. F. Mass

1:45 (23346) WEATHER RESEARCH AND FORECAST MODEL PHYSICS: STATUS, CRUCIAL ISSUES AND PLANS. John M. Brown, NOAA/FSL, Boulder, CO; and T. Black, S.-H. Chen, J. Dudhia, S.-Y. Hong, J. S. Kain, X.-Z. Liang, M. Sinclair, W.-K. Tao, and M. Xue

2:00 (23375) PARAMETERIZED CONVECTION WITH ENSEMBLE CLOSURE/FEEDBACK ASSUMPTIONS. Georg Grell, NOAA/FSL and CIRES/University of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and D. Devenyi

2:15 (23256) IMPROVING BULK MICROPHYSICS PARAMETERIZATION USING SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS. Giulia Panegrossi, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and G. Tripoli

SESSION III:

POSTER SESSION III: IMPROVED PHYSICAL PARAMETERIZATIONS IN MESOSCALE MODELS. Refreshments served.

2:30-4:00 PM

(22736) MESOSCALE MODEL CLOUD SCHEME ASSESSMENT USING SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS. Jean-Pierre Chaboureau, Laboratoire d'Aerologie, Toulouse, France; and J.-P. Cammas, P. Mascart, J.-P. Pinty, and J.-P. Lafore

(23356) EVALUATION OF A TURBULENT MIXING LENGTH PARAMETERIZATION APPLIED TO THE CASE OF AN APPROACHING UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH. Douglas K. Miller, NPS, Monterey, CA; and D. L. Walters and A. Slavin

(23343) PERFORMANCE OF THE UPDATED EXPLICIT MICROPHYSICS IN THE 20KM RUC. John M. Brown, NOAA/FSL, Boulder, CO; and G. Grell, T. G. Smirnova, S. G. Benjamin, R. M. Rasmussen, and G. Thompson

(23394) ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COMPREHENSIVE LAND SURFACE MODEL. Vince C. Wong, Coastal Meteorology Research Program, Norman, OK; and F.-Y. Kong

(23198) MODELING THE INTERACTION BETWEEN BOUNDARY LAYER AND SHALLOW CLOUDS USING A TKE AND A SHALLOW CONVECTION PARAMETERIZATION. Ricardo C. Munoz, Penn State Univ., University Park, PA; and N. L. Seaman, D. R. Stauffer, and A. Deng

(23313) MODEL SENSITIVITY TO WILDFIRE-INDUCED CHANGES IN SOIL ALBEDO, VEGETATION COVER, AND SOIL MOISTURE. Elizabeth Mulvihill Page, NOAA/NWS, Boulder, CO; and W. R. Cotton

(23329) RESPONSE OF CONVECTION TO DRY LAYERS: SIMULATION AND PARAMETERIZATION TESTS. James A. Ridout, NRL, Monterey, CA

(22812) THE EFFECT OF BOUNDARY LAYER PARAMETERIZATIONS ON MESOSCALE MODEL SIMULATIONS. Frank P. Colby, Jr., Univ. of Massachusetts, Lowell, MA

(23339) STORM INITIALIZATION OF HURRICANE BONNIE USING SSM/I BRIGHTNESS TEMPERATURES: PRELIMINARY RESULTS. C. Amerault, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and X. Zou, J. Hawkins, K. Park, and G. -. S. Liu

(23187) SPRING 2001 CHANGES TO NCEP ETA ANALYSIS AND FORECAST SYSTEM: LAND-SURFACE MODEL. M. Ek, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Suitland, MD; and K. E. Mitchell, V. I. Koren, J. C. Schaake, Q. Duan, D. Lohmann, P. Grunmann, E. Rogers, T. Black, C. Marshall, C. Marshall, C. Peters-Lidard, and T. Meyers

(22477) MESOSCALE NUMERICAL SIMULATIONS OF THE 7 JUNE 1997 SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IN SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS . Robert E. Dumais, Jr., U.S. Army Research Laboratory, White Sands Missile Range, NM; and J. E. Passner

(23170) APPLICATION OF THE PSU SHALLOW-CONVECTION PARAMETERIZATION SCHEME IN 3-D ENVIRONMENTS. Aijun Deng, Penn State Univ., University Park, PA; and N. L. Seaman, D. R. Stauffer, and R. Munoz

(22879) A COMPARISON OF BULK AERODYNAMIC METHODS FOR CALCULATING AIR-SEA FLUXES. Qing Wang, NPS, Monterey, CA; and D. Eleuterio

(22766) EVALUATING CONVECTIVE MOMENTUM FLUXES USING REMOTELY-SENSED DATA SOURCES. John R. Mecikalski, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI

(22960) LOW-LEVEL JET DYNAMICS AND PARAMETERIZATION OF SURFACE FLUXES IN THE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. Robert M. Banta, NOAA/ERL/ETL, Boulder, CO; and R. K. Newsom and J. K. Lundquist

(22741) EFFECTS OF CONVECTIVELY GENERATED GRAVITY WAVE DRAG ON A NUMERICALLY PREDICTED HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OCCURRED NEAR THE JIRI MOUNTAIN, KOREA. Hye-Yeong Chun, Yonsei Univ., Seoul, Seoul, Korea; and S.-H. Sohn

(22701) DEVELOPMENT OF A NEW PARAMETERIZATION FOR REPRESENTING BOUNDARY LAYER CLOUDS IN MESOSCALE MODELS. Jean-Christophe Golaz, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and V. E. Larson and W. R. Cotton

(23109) A PHOTOSYNTHESIS-BASED GAS-EXCHANGE EVAPOTRANSPIRATION MODEL (GEM) COUPLED WITH A LAND SURFACE SCHEME FOR MESOSCALE APPLICATIONS. Dev Dutta S. Niyogi, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and K. Alapaty and S. Raman

(23132) A MODIFIED LEVEL 2.5-EPSILON TURBULENCE PARAMETERIZATION APPLIED TO THE NEUTRAL AND STABLE ATMOSPHERIC BOUNDARY LAYERS. Frank R. Freedman, Environmental Fluid Mechanics Laboratory, Stanford, CA; and M. Z. Jacobson

(22876) IMPACTS OF PARAMETERIZED CONVECTION ON THE NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF HEAVY RAIN OVER EAST ASIA. Young-Youn Park, Yonsei University, Seoul, Korea; and T.-Y. Lee

(22610) IMPLEMENTATION OF AN URBAN CANOPY PARAMETERIZATION IN MM5 FOR MESO-GAMMA-SCALE AIR QUALITY MODELING APPLICATIONS. Tanya L. Otte, NOAA/ERL/ARL, Research Triangle Park, NC; and A. Lacser

(22872) EVALUATION OF SURFACE FLUX AND BOUNDARY LAYER PARAMETERIZATIONS IN A MESOSCALE MODEL USING AIRCRAFT MEASUREMENTS. Qing Wang, NPS, Monterey, CA; and K. Rados, H. Zuo, J. Kalogiros, S. Wang, C. Friehe, D. Khelif, and H. Jonsson

SESSION IV: MOIST PROCESSES

4:00 (22802) THE THEORETICAL FOUNDATION FOR MODELS OF MOIST CONVECTION. Peter R. Bannon, Penn State University, University Park, PA

4:15 (23318) UTILIZING THE ETA MODEL WITH TWO DIFFERENT CONVECTIVE PARAMETERIZATIONS TO PREDICT CONVECTIVE INITIATION AND EVOLUTION AT THE SPC. John S. Kain, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and M. E. Baldwin, P. R. Janish, and S. J. Weiss

4:30 (23167) THE HANDLING OF RETURN MOISTURE FLOW IN THE ETA MODEL. Geoffrey S Manikin, NCEP/EMC and SAIC/GSC, Camp Springs, MD; and K. E. Mitchell and S. J. Weiss

4:45 (22549) A COMPARISON STUDY OF CUMULUS PARAMETERIZATION SCHEMES FOR PRECIPITATING SYSTEMS IN THE TAIWAN AREA. Ming-Jen Yang, Chinese Culture University, Taipei, Taiwan; and Q.-C. Tung

5:00 (22700) PARAMETERIZING BOUNDARY LAYER CLOUDS USING PDF METHODS. Vincent E. Larson, Univ. of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, WI; and J.-C. Golaz and W. R. Cotton

5:15 Flexible Discussion
 
 

8:00 PM JOINT SESSION V: Panel and Group Discussion: How will the role of humans change during the next few decades in mesoscale weather prediction?

Summary: Traditionally, humans have diagnosed the mesoscale details using synoptic guidance. Today, the situation is changing rapidly: mesoscale models with higher resolution and more robust physics are beginning to invade this territory, appearing to often get local weather details correct. Mesoscale ensembles may provide further local weather guidance. Will people be replaced in the mesoscale arena as they have on the synoptic? This discussion will address these and other related questions. Light refreshments

Tuesday, July 31, 2001

JOINT SESSION VI: MESOSCALE DATA ASSIMILATION

8:00 (22313) A THREE-DIMENSIONAL VARIATIONAL DATA ASSIMILATION SCHEME FOR THE ARPS . Jidong Gao, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. Xue, K.

Brewster, F. Carr, and K. K. Droegemeier

8:15 (22855) PRELIMINARY RESULTS WITH THE NESTED VERSION OF NAVDAS DATA ASSIMILATION SYSTEM FOR COAMPS. Keith D. Sashegyi, NRL, Monterey, CA; and E. H. Barker, R. Daley, N. L. Baker, and P. M. Pauley

8:30 (23336) THE 20KM VERSION OF THE RUC. Stanley G. Benjamin,

NOAA/OAR/FSL, Boulder, CO; and G. Grell, S. Weygandt, T. L. Smith, T. G. Smirnova, B.

Schwartz, G. S. Manikin, D. Kim, D. Devenyi, K. J. Brundage, and J. M. Brown

8:45 INITIAL VERIFICATION OF THE MM5 3DVAR DATA ASSIMILATION SYSTEM. Dale M. Barker, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and W. Huang and Y.-R. Guo

9:00 (23128) THE WRF 3D-VAR ANALYSIS SYSTEM. W.-S. Wu, General Sciences

Corporation and NOAA/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and M. Xue, T. Schlatter,

R. J. Purser, M. McAtee, J. Gao, D. Devenyi, J. Derber, D. Barker, S.

Benjamin, and R. Aune

9:15 Flexible discussion

SESSION VII: BOUNDARY LAYER PROCESSES

800 (22878) TURBULENCE PARAMETERIZATIONS AND SCALE DEPENDENCE OF TURBULENCE STATISTICS. Michelle Whisenhant, NPS, Monterey, CA; and Q. Wang and S. Wang

8:15 (23442) MESOSCALE VARIABILITY IN BOUNDARY LAYER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. Kenneth Davis, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and A. Desai, D. Stauffer, B. Reen, R. Dobosy, and S. Ismail

8:30 (23362) VALIDATION OF BOUNDARY-BAYER PARAMETERIZATIONS IN A MARITIME STORM USING AIRCRAFT DATA. Ola P. G. Persson, CIRES and NOAA/ETL, Boulder, CO; and B. Walter, J.-W. Bao, S. A. Michelson, and F. M. Ralph

8:45 (22915) IMPROVING BULK SURFACE FLUX PARAMETERIZATION AT LOW WIND SPEEDS IN THE NAVY'S COAMPS. Shouping Wang, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. D. Doyle and Q. Wang

9:00 (23138) MESOSCALE VARIABILITY IN COASTAL MARINE ATMOSPHERIC BOUNDARY LAYERS. Tracy Haack, NRL, Monterey, CA; and S, D. Burk and R. M. Hodur

9:15 Flexible Discussion

9:30-10:00 BREAK

SESSION VIII: MESOSCALE DATA ASSIMILATION

10:00 (22805) THE IMPACT OF TRMM RAINFALL DATA ON MESOSCALE SIMULATIONS OF SUPER TYPHOON PAKA. Zhao-Xia Pu, University of Maryland, Baltimore County and NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and W.-K. Tao, S. Braun, J. Simpson, W. Olson, J. Halverson, Y. Jia, and A. Hou

10:15 (22556) FINE SCALE INITIALIZATION AND PREDICTION OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS OVER FRENCH MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.. Didier Ricard, CNRM, Toulouse, France; and V. Ducrocq and J.-P. Lafore

10:30 (23217) ASSIMILATION OF SATELLITE AND RADAR DERIVED PREDICTION ESTIMATES AND RAINGAGE OBSERVATIONS FOR IMPROVED QUANTITATIVE PREDICTION FORECASTS. S. Q. Peng, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and X. Zou

10:45 (23113) AN INVERSE TECHNIQUE FOR ASSIMILATING SOIL MOISTURE USING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. Kiran Alapaty, MCNC-Environmental Programs, Research Triangle Park, NC; and D. D. S. Niyogi

11:00 (23229) ASSIMILATING SINGLE-DOPPLER RADAR OBSERVATIONS INTO MESOSCALE MODELS. Qin Xu, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and W. Gu and J. Gong

Session IX: NUMERICS AND MODEL STRUCTURE

10:00 (23084) THE EFFECTS OF NONHYDROSTATIC DYNAMICS IN HIGH RESOLUTION NUMERICAL FORECASTS. Zavisa I. Janjic, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD

10:15 (23259) THE INFLUENCE OF NUMERICAL ALGORITHMS ON EXPLICITLY SIMULATED COHERENT CLOUD STRUCTURES. Gregory J. Tripoli, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI

10:30 (22990) A SEMI-LAGRANGIAN DYNAMICAL CORE FOR THE NON-HYDROSTATIC WRF MODEL. R. James Purser, EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and T. Fujita, S. K. Kar, and J. G. Michalakes

10:45 (22598) APPLICATION OF THE EQUIVALENT GEOPOTENTIAL TO THE PENN/NCAR MESOSCALE MODEL(MM5) FOR IMPROVING PRECIPITATION PREDICTION OVER MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS. Qiu-Shi Chen, Ohio State Univ., Columbus, OH; and L.-S. Bai and D. H. Bromwich

11:00 (22688) FORECAST GUIDANCE FROM HIGH RESOLUTION NESTS IN THE NCEP MESO ETA MODEL. Thomas Black, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and E. Rogers and G. DiMego

Session X: MESOSCALE COASTAL CIRCULATIONS

11:15 (22814) THE SANTA CRUZ EDDY: OBSERVATIONS AND NUMERICAL SIMULATIONS. Cristina L. Archer, Stanford University, Stanford, CA; and M. Z. Jacobson

11:30 (22540) NUMERICAL SIMULATIONS OF A LANDFALLING COLD FRONT OBSERVED DURING COAST: RAPID EVOLUTION AND RESPONSIBLE MECHANISMS. Brian A. Colle, SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and B. F. Smull and M.-J. Yang

11:45 (22887) THE IMPACT OF CALIFORNIA'S COASTAL MOUNTAINS ON THE OBSERVED FRONTAL EVOLUTION DURING A MAJOR LAND-FALLING WINTER STORM. Paul J. Neiman, NOAA/ERL/ETL, Boulder, CO; and O. P. G. Persson, F. M. Ralph, and D. P. Jorgensen

12:00-1:00 PM LUNCH

12:30 Joint Weather Briefing by Miami NWS WFO

SESSION X Continued: MESOSCALE COASTAL CIRCULATIONS

1:00 (22385) COMPARISONS BETWEEN LIDAR MEASUREMENTS AND MODEL SIMULATIONS OF THE SEA BREEZE AT MONTEREY BAY. Lisa S. Darby, NOAA/ETL, Boulder, CO; and R. M. Banta and R. A. Pielke, Sr.

1:15 (22617) THE SUBTROPICAL SEA BREEZE. John W. Nielsen-Gammon, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX; and S. A. Naumann and D. Dexheimer

1:30 (22969) VERTICAL POLLUTANT TRANSPORT BY THE SEA-BREEZE FRONT AT GALVESTON BAY IN OPPOSING SYNOPTIC FLOW. Robert M. Banta, NOAA/ERL/ETL, Boulder, CO; and C. J. Senff, L. S. Darby, and R. J. Alvarez

SESSION XI: OROGRAPHIC SYSTEMS

1:45 (22511) MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION STRUCTURES DURING THE INTERMOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION EXPERIMENT. David M. Schultz, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK

2:00 (22567) THE DYNAMICS OF MOUNTAIN-INDUCED ROTORS. James D. Doyle, NRL, Monterey, CA; and D. R. Durran

2:15 (23348) THE MESOSCALE METEOROLOGY OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE. Justin Sharp, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and C. F. Mass

2:30-4:00 POSTER SESSIONS

POSTER SESSION XIIA: MESOSCALE DATA ASSIMILATION

(22963) SENSITIVITY OF OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION TO CHANGING AMBIENT CONDITIONS: AN IDEALIZED MODELING PERSPECTIVE. Brian A. Colle, SUNY, Stony Brook, NY

(23050) MESOSCALE NUMERICAL MODELS AND FIELD OBSERVATION PLATFORMS TO EVALUATE AIRBORNE TRANSPORT OF HAZARDOUS SUBSTANCES IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. Arthur L. Doggett, IV, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX; and T. E. Gill, C.-B. Chang, and R. E. Peterson

(22373) USING IMPROVED BACKGROUND ERROR COVARIANCES FROM AN ENSEMBLE KALMAN FILTER FOR ADAPTIVE OBSERVATIONS. Thomas M. Hamill, NOAA-CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center, Boulder, CO; and C. Snyder

(22383) MESOSCALE STOCHASTIC-DYNAMIC WEATHER PREDICTION FOR THE 2002 OLYMPIC WINTER GAMES. Andrew Jay Siffert, Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and D. J. Onton and W. J. Steenburgh

(22490) NUMERICAL SIMULATIONS OF HURRICANE BRET (21-23 AUGUST 1999) OBSERVED BY TRMM. Olivier Nuissier, Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées, Toulouse, France; and F. Roux and N. Viltard

(22739) PRELIMINARY RESULTS OF THE GPS PW ASSIMILATION IN TO A LIMITED-AREA MODEL: A CASE STUDY FOR IOP8 MAP/SOP. Claudia Faccani, Univ. of L'Aquila, L'Aquila, Italy; and R. Ferretti, C. Scairretta, R. Pacione, F. Vespe, and G. Visconti

(23368) SIMULATION OF HURRICANE BRET AND IMPACT OF HIGH RESOLUTION SATELLITE-DERIVED SSTS. Loren D. White, Jackson State University, Jackson, MS; and R. S. Reddy and R. L. Miller

(23359) THE IMPACT OF INITIAL DATA AND ANALYSIS METHODS ON MM5 FORECASTS OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS. James F. Bresch, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and F. Vandenberghe

(22996) ANALYSIS OF THE MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE 24-25 JANUARY 2000 STORM. Daryl T. Kleist, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and H. M. Kim and M. C. Morgan

(23363) ENSEMBLE BASED ERROR COVARIANCE MATRICES FOR MESOSCALE VARIATIONAL DATA ASSIMILATION. M.S.F.V. De Pondeca, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and X. Zou

(23160) ASSIMILATION OF RAIN RATES USING SATELLITE DATA BY A REGIONAL SPECTRAL MODEL. Ana M. B. Nunes, Centro de Previsao do Tempo e Estudos Climaticos, Cachoeira Paulista, SP, Brazil

(22665) COMPARISON OF THE SSM/I SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS WITH MM5 SIMULATIONS OF TYPHOON OMAR. Shu-hua Chen, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and F. Vandenberghe, G. Petty, W. Huang, and J. Bresch

(23280) INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HETEROGENEITIES ON BOUNDARY LAYER DYNAMICS AND SECONDARY COHERENT CIRCULATIONS. Adrian Marroquin, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Boulder, Colorado; and R. F. Heretenstein and R. A. Peilke, Sr.

POSTER SESSION XIIB. THE DEVELOPMENT OF MESOSCALE PREDICTION MODELS

(23255) OPERATIONAL FIRE WEATHER SUPPORT THROUGH THE USE OF A MESOSCALE FORECAST MODEL. Michael P. Meyers, NOAA/NWSFO, Grand Junction, CO; and E. M. Page, R. L. McAnelly, and W. R. Cotton

(23075) THE SENSITIVITY OF NESTING STRATEGY OF THE NCEP REGIONAL SPECTRAL MODEL. Hann-Ming H. Juang, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and S.-Y. Hong

(22989) AN UPPER BOUNDARY CONDITION FOR NONHYDROSTATIC MODELS ABSORBING BOTH GRAVITY AND ACOUSTIC WAVES. R. James Purser, EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and S. K. Kar

(22768) A MESOSCALE MODEL FOR GLOBAL MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTING IN CANADA. Stephane Belair, MSC, Dorval, PQ, Canada; and J. Mailhot, A. Tremblay, A.-M. Leduc, A. Methot, M. Roch, and P. Vaillancourt

(23162) MESOSCALE MODEL EVALUATION OF A NEW INTEGRATION SCHEME FOR THE MET OFFICE UNIFIED MODEL. Andrew J. Malcolm, Met Office, Bracknell, Berks., United Kingdom; and T. Davies, H. W. Lean, and P. A. Clark

SESSION XII CONTINUED: OROGRAPHIC SYSTEMS

4:00 (22997) STRUCTURE OF WAKE NORTH OF THE ALPS: STUDY OF PV BANNERS DURING AN EPISODE OF DEEP SOUTH FöHN. Vanda Grubisic, DRI, Reno, NV

4:15 (22831) (22840) MICROPHYSICAL TIMESCALES AND OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION. Qingfang Jiang, Yale University, New Haven, CT; and R. B. Smith

4:30 (23134) STRATIFIED FLOWS PAST 3D RIDGES AT INTERMEDIATE ROSSBY NUMBER. Craig C Epifanio, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and D. Muraki and R. Rotunno

4:45 (22992) ESSENTIAL INGREDIENTS FOR OROGRAPHIC HEAVY RAINFALL AND THEIR POTENTIAL APPLICATION FOR PREDICTION. Yuh-Lang Lin, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and S. Chiao, D. B. Ensley, T.-A. Wang, and M. L. Kaplan

5:00 (22502) OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION AND AIRMASS DRYING IN MAP. Ronald B. Smith, Yale University, New Haven, CT; and M. G. Fearon and Q. Jiang

5:15 (22380) OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION PROCESSES ASSOCIATED WITH THE WASATCH MOUNTAINS DURING IPEX IOP-3. Justin A. Cox, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and W. J. Steenburgh, D. E. Kingsmill, and B. A. Colle

5:30 Flexible discussion

8:00 PM JOINT SESSON XIII: Panel and Group Discussion: Has mesoscale modeling outpaced our understanding of basic physical processes?

Light refreshments

Summary: During the past several decades tremendous resources has gone into increasing resolution and improving data acquisition and assimilation. As other aspects of modeling have improve, work on physical parameterizations has received less attention. To what degree do we need to rework our parameterizations for high-resolution simulations? Do we have enough observational data and physical knowledge to make the needed improvements?

Wednesday, August 1, 2001

SESSION XIV: MESOSCALE MODEL VERIFICATION

8:15 (22580) A PRELIMINARY STUDY OF SURFACE TEMPERATURE COLD BIAS IN COAMPS. Hung-Neng S. Chin, LLNL, Livermore, CA; and M. J. Leach, G. A. Sugiyama, and F. J. Aluzzi

8:30 (23046) DOES INCREASING HORIZONTAL RESOLUTION PRODUCE BETTER FORECASTS? THE RESULTS OF TWO YEARS OF REAL-TIME NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. Cliff F. Mass, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and D. Ovens, K. Westrick, and B. A. Colle

8:45 (23364) VERIFICATION OF MESOSCALE FEATURES IN NWP MODELS. Michael E. Baldwin, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and J. S. Kain and S. Lakshmivarahan

9:00 Group Discussion: Can a viable approach to mesoscale verification and evaluation be found? SESSION XV: MESOSCALE PREDICTABILITY AND ENSEMBLES

9:30 (23381) SHORT TERM MESOSCALE ENSEMBLES OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES DURING THE MONSOON. David R. Bright, NOAANWS, Tucson, AZ; and S. L. Mullen and D. J. Stensrud

9:45 (23026) PREDICTABILITY STUDIES WITH THE NCEP SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE FORECASTING (SREF) SYSTEM. M. Steven Tracton, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MA; and J. Du

10:00-10:30 BREAK

10:30 (23047) EVALUATION OF A MESOSCALE SHORT-RANGE ENSEMBLE FORECASTING SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. Eric P. Grimit, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and C. F. Mass

10:45 (22426) SENSITIVITY OF THE 3-4 MAY 1999 TORNADIC OUTBREAK TO SYNOPTIC SCALE INITIAL CONDITIONS. Paul J. Roebber, Univ. of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, WI; and D. Schultz and R. Romero

11:00 (22724) STATUS REPORT ON THE PREDICTABILITY OF MESOSCALE GRAVITY WAVES WITH NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS. Steven E Koch, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO

11:15 (23119) THE INFLUENCE OF MOIST CONVECTION ON THE PREDICTABILITY OF LARGE SCALES. Fuqing Zhang, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. Snyder and R. Rotunno

11:30 (22618) MESOSCALE ENSEMBLE PREDICTION OF MID-LATITUDE CYCLONES. Mohan K. Ramamurthy, Univ. of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and B. Cui

11:45 Flexible discussion time

12:00 LUNCH

12:30 Joint Weather Briefing by Miami NWS WFO

SESSION XV CONTINUED: MESOSCALE PREDICTABILITY AND ENSEMBLES

1:00 (23354) A COMPARISON OF MESOSCALE MODEL FORECAST ACCURACY USING RANDOM AND A SIMPLIFIED TARGETTING APPROACH. Wendell A. Nuss, NPS, Monterey, CA; and D. K. Miller

1:15 (22520) INFERENCES OF PREDICTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH WARM SEASON PRECIPITATION EPISODES. R. E. Carbone, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. D. Tuttle, D. A. Ahijevych, and S. B. Trier

1:30 (23345) FORECAST EVALUATION OF A MIXED-PHYSICS ENSEMBLE. Matthew S. Wandishin, University of Arizona and NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and S. L. Mullen, D. J. Stensrud, and H. E. Brooks

SESSION XVI: CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS

1:45 (22777) SIMPLE NUMERICAL SIMULATIONS OF CONVECTIVE LINES WITH LEADING STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION. Matthew D. Parker, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and R. H. Johnson

2:00 (22572) THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL VERTICAL DISTRIBUTION OF STATIC STABILITY ON THE INTERNAL STRUCTURE OF MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS. George H. Bryan, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and J. M. Fritsch

2:15 (23257) THE SENSITIVITY OF MODELED SUPERCELL STORM DYNAMICS TO SEVERAL CLOUD MICROPHYSICAL PARAMETERS. Susan C. van den Heever, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and W. R. Cotton

2:30- 4:00 PM POSTER SESSIONS

POSTER SESSION XVIIA: MESOSCALE PREDICTABILITY AND ENSEMBLES

(22774) EVALUATION OF THE RAMS MESOSCALE MODEL APPLIED TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY DURING THE COASTAL MARINE DEMONSTRATION PROJECT. Jeffery T. McQueen, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and J. G. W. Kelley and F. Aikman III

(23415) GAUGING MESOSCALE PREDICTABILITY OF AN UNUSUAL HIGH LATITUDE SNOW EVENT VIA A MULTI-MODEL INTERCOMPARISON. Jeffrey S. Tilley, Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK; and R. Thoman

(23349) ENVIRONMENTAL HETEROGENEITY AND THE BEHAVIOR OF SUPERCELLS. Brian J. Gaudet, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and W. R. Cotton

(23127) ETA MODEL FORECASTS FOR THE MILLENNIUM SNOWSTORM OF 30-31 DECEMBER 2000. Geoffrey S. Manikin, NCEP/EMC and SAIC/GSC, Camp Springs, MD; and K. F. Brill

(23230) IMPACT OF SOIL MOISTURE INITIALIZATION ON A SIMULATED FLASH FLOOD. C. Travis Ashby, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and W. R. Cotton

(23353) WIND ENERGY FORECASTS AND ENSEMBLE UNCERTAINTY FROM THE RUC. Kevin J. Brundage, NOAA/FSL and CIRA/Colorado State University, Boulder, CO; and S. G. Benjamin and M. N. Schwartz

(22713) BALANCED INITIALIZATION PROCEDURES AND MESOSCALE PREDICTABILITY. Steven E Koch, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and F. Zhang

(22758) QUANTIFYING THE IMPACT OF OBSERVATIONS USING ENSEMBLES. Brian J. Etherton, Penn State Univ., University Park, PA; and C. H. Bishop

(23074) IMPLEMENTATION OF A REAL TIME SHORT-RANGE ENSEMBLE FORECASTING SYSTEM AT NCEP: AN UPDATE. Jun Du, EMC/NCEP and SAIC, Camp Springs, MD; and M. S. Tracton

(22844) EVALUATION OF HIGH RESOLUTION MM5 AND ETA FORECASTS OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. Brian A. Colle, SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and J. B. Olson and J. S. Tongue

(23057) EVALUATION OF THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF MM5 AND ETA SURFACE TROUGH PASSAGES OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. Brian A. Colle, SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and C. F. Mass and D. Ovens

(23323) QUANTIFYING THE PREDICTABILITY AND UNCERTAINTY OF MODELS TO IMPROVE AVIATION FORECASTS. Steven R. Silberberg, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Kansas City, MO

(22849) NONLINEAR INTERACTIONS BETWEEN PERTURBATION GROWTH IN A LIMITED-AREA MODEL AND VARIABLE FORCING OF LATERAL BOUNDARY CONDITIONS BY A GLOBAL ENSEMBLE. Paul A. Nutter, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK

(22425) PREDICTABILITY OF CONVECTION AT 24-48H FORECAST RANGE USING A VERY-HIGH RESOLUTION (6 KM) NWP MODEL. Michael A. Fowle, Univ. of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, WI; and P. J. Roebber

(22639) NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF A RIGHT-MOVING STORM OVER FRANCE. Katia Chancibault, CNRM, Toulouse cedex, France; and V. Ducrocq and J.-P. Lafore

(22468) VARIABILITY IN WARM-SEASON MCS RAINFALL PREDICTABILITY. Isidora Jankov, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and W. A. Gallus, Jr.

(22733) UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC INERTIAL INSTABILITY: CLIMATOLOGY AND POSSIBLE RELATIONSHIP TO SEVERE WEATHER PREDICTABILITY. Russ S. Schumacher, Valparaiso University, Valparaiso, IN; and D. M. Schultz

(22589) THE USE OF A 10KM ENSEMBLE TO IMPROVE WARM SEASON MCS RAINFALL PREDICTION. William A. Gallus, Jr., Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and M. Segal and I. Jankov

(22423) 24-48H PREDICTABILITY OF LAKE-ENHANCED SNOWBANDS IN THE 2-3 JANUARY 1999 MIDWEST BLIZZARD. James E. Sieveking, Univ.y of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, WI; and P. J. Roebber

(22378) AN EVALUATION OF SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE FORECASTS (SREF) DURING THE INTERMOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION EXPERIMENT (IPEX). James A. Nelson, Jr., NOAA/NWS, Salt Lake City, UT; and W. J. Steenburgh

(22636) AN EXAMINATION OF THE OPERATIONAL PREDICTABILITY OF MESOSCALE TERRAIN-INDUCED FEATURES IN EASTERN COLORADO FROM SEVERAL MODELS. Edward J. Szoke, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and B. Shaw

POSTER SESSION XVIIB: NEW INSIGHTS REGARDING MESOSCALE STRUCTURE BASED ON RECENT FIELD EXPERIMENTS AND NEW OBSERVING PLATFORMS

(23048) LAKE MICHIGAN SURFACE TEMPERATURE VARIATIONS AND IMPACTS ON SURFACE HEAT FLUXES AND CONVECTIVE INTENSITY. David A. R. Kristovich, ISWS, Champaign, IL; and M. R. Hjelmfelt, M. C. Peters, and M. S. Timlin

(22881) TROPOPAUSE FOLD AND CYCLOGENESIS: A CASE STUDY FROM FASTEX. . Jérôme Donnadille, Université Paul Sabatier, Toulouse, France; and J.-P. Cammas, P. Mascart, D. Lambert, and R. L. Gall

(22453) VERTICAL STRUCTURE AND CHARACTERISTICS OF TWO LEADING STRATIFORM MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS. Crystalyne R. Pettet, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and R. H. Johnson

(22921) PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY OF MIDWESTERN MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS DEDUCED FROM GOES SOUNDINGS. Stacy N. Allen, University of Missouri-Columbia, Columbia, MO; and P. S. Market and R. Scofield

(22911) PROFILER OBSERVATIONS OF BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE ZONES. Kevin R. Knupp, University of Alabama in Huntsville, Huntsville, AL; and J. Walters

(22943) SCALE-DISCRIMINATING VORTICITY BUDGET FOR A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX. Jason C. Knievel, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and R. H. Johnson

(23253) OBSERVATIONAL ANALYSES OF THE FINE-SCALE WIND AND MOISTURE CHARACTERISTICS IN MAP IOP-2B AND IOP-8. Joseph J. Charney, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and Y.-L. Lin, C. M. Hill, and J. A. Thurman

(22834) THE DEATH OF A MID-LEVEL CLOUD. Vincent E. Larson, Univ. of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, WI; and R. P. Fleishauer, J. A. Kankiewicz, D. L. Reinke, and T. H. Vonder Haar

(22945) REGIMES FOR A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE FLOW OVER A THREE-DIMENSIONAL MESOSCALE MOUNTAIN. Yuh-Lang Lin, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and S.-H. Chen

(22652) USE OF LOWER ATMOSPHERIC PROFILERS AND AUTOMATED SURFACE MEASUREMENTS TO INVESTIGATE MESOSCALE STRUCTURE AND PREDICTABILITY. Elford G. Astling, West Desert Test Center, Dugway, UT

(22361) TOPOGRAPHIC DISTORTION OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS. W. James Steenburgh, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and T. R. Blazek

(22946) THERMODYNAMICS OF THE WAKE OF A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM AND ITS MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX. Jason C. Knievel, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and R. H. Johnson

(22757) THE VALUE OF REALTIME UPPER TROPOSPHERIC INERTIAL STABILITY MEASUREMENTS ON TROPICAL CONVECTION FORECASTS. John R. Mecikalski, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI

(22905) THE USE OF GPS INTEGRATED PRECIPITABLE WATER MEASUREMENTS TO SUPPLEMENT WSR-88D PARAMETERS IN DETERMINING THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOOD PRODUCING RAINFALL. Stephen J. Keighton, NOAA/NWS Blacksburg VA, Blacksburg, VA; and M. Gillen, G. V. Loganathan, S. Gorugantula, and T. Eisenberger

(22615) LEE WAVES OVER COMPLEX TOPOGRAPHY DURING MAP. James D. Doyle, Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, CA; and R. B. Smith and G. S. Poulos

(22947) A CASE STUDY OF A SEVERE MIDWESTERN PULSE THUNDERSTORM EVENT. Patrick S. Market, Univ. of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and A. R. Lupo and R. W. Przybylinski

(22328) FACTORS INFLUENCING ATMOSPHERIC INTERNAL BORE FORMATION RESULTIING FROM COLLIDING BOUNDARIES. David E. Kingsmill, DRI, Reno, NV

(22789) COMPARISON OF 9-KM WIND FORECASTS VERSUS 27-KM WIND FORECASTS DURING THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO LITTORAL INITIATIVE. Pat J. Fitzpatrick, Jackson State University, Jackson, MS; and . G. Mostovoi and Y. Li

(22908) ANALYSIS OF WARM-SEASON MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. John A. Haynes, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and C. E. Hane, D. L. Andra, E. Berry, F. H. Carr, and R. M. Rabin

(22537) AN OBSERVATIONAL STUDY ON ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS FOR FORMATION OF CLOSED CONVECTION CELLS. Yuichi Miura, Science University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan

(22833) COMPARISON OF IN-SITU AND SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS OF MESOSCALE MOISTURE STRUCTURE IN AN EASTERN-PACIFIC POLAR FRONTAL WAVE. F. Martin Ralph, NOAA/ERL/ETL, Boulder, CO; and P. J. Neiman and C. S. Velden

(22555) MESOSCALE PROCESSES AND IMPACT OF FASTEX CYCLONES THROUGH MOMENTUM, HEAT, AND WATER BUDGETS(IOPS 11, 12, 16, 17). Alain J. F. Protat, CETP, Velizy, France; and D. H. Bouniol and Y. T. A. Lemaître

(22296) OBSERVATIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS DRYLINE UTILIZING MOBILE MESONET DATA. Albert E. Pietrycha, NOAA/NSSL and Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX; and E. N. Rasmussen

(22299) OBSERVATIONS OF THE DCVZ USING MOBILE MESONETS. Albert E. Pietrycha, NOAA/NSSL and Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX; and E. N. Rasmussen

(23005) NUMERICAL SIMULATIONS OF HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE MESOSCALE ALPINE PROGRAM (MAP). James A. Thurman, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and Y.-L. Lin and J. J. Charney

SESSION XVI CONVECTION CONTINUED

4:00 (22796) THE ROLE OF LOW-LEVEL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN PROMOTING STRONG, LONG-LIVED SQUALL LINES. Morris L. Weisman, NCAR, Boulder, Colorado; and R. Rotunno

4:15 (22799) EFFECTS OF AMBIENT SHEAR ON LIFTING PRODUCED BY COLD POOLS. Richard Rotunno, NCAR, Boulder, Colorado; and M. L. Weisman

4:30 4:45 (23384) OBSERVATIONS AND NUMERICAL SIMULATIONS OF A LONG-LIVED CONVECTIVELY GENERATED VORTEX. Stanley B. Trier, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. A. Davis

5:00 (22819) HORIZONTAL SCALE SELECTION, CONVECTIVE ROLLS, AND THE ROLE OF GRAVITY WAVES IN THE CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER. Todd P. Lane, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and T. L. Clark

5:15 (22784) FAVORED LOCATIONS OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. Donna F. Tucker, University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS; and N. A. Crook

5:30 (22634) MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS OVER THE UNITED STATES DURING 1999 AND 2000. Christopher J. Anderson, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and R. W. Arritt and L. Strehlow

EVENING: GALA Cruise and Dinner.

Thursday, August 2, 2001

SESSION XVIII: HURRICANE DYNAMICS AND MODELING

8:15 (22726) THE GENESIS OF HURRICANE DIANA (1984). Christopher A. Davis, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. G. Powers and L. F. Bosart

8:30 (22681) WARM CORE INTENSIFICATION OF A HURRICANE THROUGH HORIZONTAL EDDY HEAT TRANSPORTS INSIDE THE EYE. Scott A. Braun, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and M. T. Montgomery, J. Fulton, and D. S. Nolan

8:45 (23149) TOWARD A FULLY COUPLED ATMOSPHERE-WAVE-OCEAN HURRICANE PREDICTION MODEL. Shuyi S. Chen, University of Miami, Miami, FL; and W. Zhao, J. Tenerelli, and M. Donelan

9:00 (23436) NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF THE GENESIS OF HURRICANE DANNY. Ying-Hwa Kuo, NCAR, Boulder, CO

SESSION XIX: INVITED SPEAKER: THE FUTURE OF MESOSCALE OBSERVATION SYSTEMS AND DATA ASSIMILATION

9:15--9:45 TALK

9:45 Discussion

10:00-10:30 BREAK

SESSION XX: MESOSCALE DYNAMICS

10:45 (22685) THE ROLE OF LATENT HEAT RELEASE IN THE FORMATION OF A WARM OCCLUDED THERMAL STRUCTURE IN AN INTENSE CONTINENTAL CYCLONE. Derek J. Posselt, Univ.of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and J. E. Martin

11:00 (22732) DYNAMICAL OVERVIEW OF THE TWO EUROPEAN STORMS OF DECEMBER 99 USING GENERALIZED POTENTIAL VORTICITY INVERSION.. P. Arbogast, CNRM, Toulouse, France; and G. Hello and A. Joly

11:15 (23105) MESOSCALE DYNAMICS AND LIFE CYCLE OF THE 24-26 JANUARY 2000 EAST-COAST SNOWSTORM. Melvyn A. Shapiro, NCAR and NOAA/ETL, Boulder, CO; and F. Zhang

11:30 (23392) AGGREGATE EFFECTS OF THE GREAT LAKES ON THE INTENSITY AND PROPAGATION OF FRONTS DURING THE WARM SEASON. Peter J. Sousounis, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI

11:45 (23219) AN EFFORT TO INCORPORATE TOMS OZONE MEASUREMENTS INTO THE PREDICTION OF A WINTER SNOW STORM. Kun-Il Jang, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and X. Zou, A. Kruger, and M. Shapiro

12:00 LUNCH

12:30 Joint Weather Briefing by Miami NWS WFO

SESSION XX CONTINUED: MESOSCALE DYNAMICS

1:00 (22906) THE ROLE OF EVAPORATION IN GRAVITY WAVE GENESIS DURING STORM-FEST. Brian F. Jewett, Univ. of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and M. K. Ramamurthy and R. M. Rauber

1:15 (22645) MESOSCALE PROCESSES INVOLVED IN FASTEX SECONDARY CYCLONES. Dominique Bouniol, CETP, Vélizy, France; and Y. Lemaître and A. Protat

1:30 (22514) SIMULATIONS OF WINTER MESOSCALE CIRCULATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH AXISYMMETRIC AND ELONGATED ISOLATED HEAT AND MOISTURE SOURCES. Neil F. Laird, ISWS, Champaign, IL; and D. A. R. Kristovich and J. E. Walsh

1:45 (22528) THE MESOSCALE EVOLUTION OF THE EARLY CYCLOGENESIS OF THE MARCH 1993 STORM OF THE CENTURY. Karl D. Pfeiffer, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and M. L. Kaplan, Y.-L. Lin, G. M. Lackmann, A. J. Riordan, J. J. Charney, K. T. Waight, III, and D. B. Ensley

2:00 (22968) CLOUD-RESOLVING NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF A POLAR LOW OVER JAPAN SEA. Wataru Yanase, Univ. of Tokyo, Nakano, Tokyo, Japan; and H. Niino and K. Saito

2:15 Flexible Discussion

2:30-4:00 POSTER SESSION

POSTER SESSION XXI: MESOSCALE CIRCULATIONS

(23441) MIXING PROCESSES AND THE INTERACTION AMONG 3 ATMOSPHERIC REGIMES IN THE SALT LAKE CITY BASIN. Gregory S. Poulos, Colorado Research Associates, Boulder, CO; and R. Hertenstein

(22778) THE ANTARCTIC MESOSCALE PREDICTION SYSTEM. Jordan G. Powers, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. F. Bresch, B. Kuo, J. J. Cassano, and D. H. Bromwich

(22743) THE INFLUENCE OF ELECTRIFICATION ON MICROPHYSICAL AND DYNAMICAL PROCESSES INSIDE THUNDERSTORMS . Anping Sun, Yonsei Univ., Seoul, Seoul, Korea; and H.-Y. Chun

(22790) SIMULATED GRAVITY WAVES PRODUCED BY MCS-LIKE HEATING PROFILES: MCS GEOMETRY AND ITS EFFECTS ON THE ENVIRONMENT. Matthew D. Parker, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO

(23008) PARALLEL IMPLEMENTATION OF COMPACT NUMERICAL SCHEMES. Tsukasa Fujita, EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and R. J. Purser

(23044) THE ROLE OF UPPER TROPOSPHERIC INERTIAL STABILITY IN HURRICANE INTENSIFICATION. Eric Rappin, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and M. C. Morgan

(23261) THE MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT AND LIGHTNING DISTRIBUTION DURING THE 1998 FLORIDA WILDFIRES. Arlene G. Laing, University of South Florida, Tampa, FL; and C. H. Paxton, S. L. Goodrick, D. Sharp, and P. F. Blottman

(22999) NUMERICAL SIMULATIONS OF AN OROGRAPHIC RAINFALL EVENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL STORM OVER A MESOSCALE MOUNTAIN. Sen Chiao, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and Y.-L. Lin

(22684) DIAGNOSIS OF A RAPID SURFACE CYCLOLYSIS EVENT IN THE BERING SEA. Nathan Marsili, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and J. E. Martin

(22750) A NUMERICAL STUDY ON CHARACTERISTICS OF INTERNAL GRAVITY WAVES IN THE STRATOSPHERE INDUCED BY MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. In-Sun Song, Yonsei Univ., Seoul, Seoul, Korea; and H.-Y. Chun

(22810) A MIXED LAYER MODEL OF THE DIURNAL DRYLINE. Patrick A. Jones, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and P. R. Bannon

(22647) MESOSCALE PROCESSES AND MM5 SIMULATIONS OF THE 9 MARCH 1999 DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA SNOWSTORM. John H. E. Clark, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and R. P. James and R. H. Grumm

(22880) EVALUATION OF HORIZONTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT SCHEMES IN A TERRAIN FOLLOWING COORDINATE. Sang-Hun Park, Yonsei University, Seoul, Korea; and T.-Y. Lee, H.-Y. Chun, and S.-Y. Hong

(23367) EVALUATION OF THE MM5 AND WORKSTATION ETA MODELS NEAR TALLAHASSEE, FLORIDA. Todd P. Lericos, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and T. J. Turnage, A. I. Watson, H. E. Fuelberg, and S. Goodrick

(23260) VORTEX-LINES AND AIRFLOW STRUCTURE NEAR A TORNADO-LIKE VORTEX IN A SIMULATED MINI-SUPERCELL. Akira Noda, Ocean Research Institute, Nakano, Tokyo, Japan; and H. Niino

SOME DYNAMICAL ASPECTS OF THE MISTRAL. Qingfang Jiang, Yale University, New Haven, CT; and R. Smith

(23027) COLD-FRONTAL POTENTIAL VORTICITY MAXIMA: SENSITIVITY TO MODEL PHYSICS. C. Michael Trexler, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and G. M. Lackmann

(22835) FINE-SCALE STRUCTURE AND DYNAMICS OF A HEAVY SNOWBAND. Robert M. Rauber, Univ. of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and M. K. Ramamurthy, B. F. Jewett, and M. Han

(22503) RADAR CHARACTERISTICS OF SEVERE WIND-PRODUCING CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. Brian A. Klimowski, NOAA/NWSFO, Rapid City, SD; and M. R. Hjelmfelt

(23386) NUMERICAL STUDY OF A MESOSCALE CONVECTION SYSTEM OVER TAIWAN STRAIT. Qinghong Zhang, NCAR, Boulder, CO
 
 

SESSION XXII: MESOCALE CIRCULATIONS AND THEIR INTERACTIONS WITH THE SYNOPTIC SCALE

4:00 (23142) USE OF A MESOSCALE MODEL TO FORECAST TORNADIC STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT ALOFT. Stan Rose, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and M. T. Stoelinga, J. D. Locatelli, and P. V. Hobbs

4:15 (22680) THE RAPID GROWTH AND DECAY OF A LOW-LATITUDE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN. Jonathan E. Martin, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and J. A. Otkin

4:30 (22593) NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF A DRYLINE-OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERSECTION. Christopher C. Weiss, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and H. B. Bluestein

4:45 (22987) MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENTS WHICH CHARACTERIZE SEVERE MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TURBULENCE. Michael L. Kaplan, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and Y.-L. Lin, J. J. Charney, K. T. Waight, A. J. Riordan, A. W. Huffman, J. D. Cetola, and K. M. Lux

5:00 Flexible Discussion
 
 

7:30 PM Panel and Group Discussion: How can we better estimate and communicate uncertainty in mesoscale forecasts?

SUMMARY

During the past ten years progress has been made on estimating the uncertainty in synoptic and mesoscale forecasts (e.g., ensembles). Forecasters often have insight into the uncertainty of forecasts, but this information is often not effectively communicated to the public. This discussion will examine how we can more effectively estimate model forecast uncertainty and explore ways we can communicate such information to the public.

Closing Ice Breaker and special refreshments