High-Resolution Ensemble Prediction
The future of weather prediction will increasingly depend on
ensembles of many forecasts, each using differing starting points
and model physics. Such ensembles provide the basis for
predicting and defining forecast uncertainty, as well as the
provision of probabilities to the forecast.
Most operational ensembles have relatively coarse resolution
(typically 25-50 km grid spacing), which is inadequate in
places where terrain or convection are important.
Thus, with support from the Northwest modeling consortium and
NOAA, the UW has built an operational high-resolution ensemble
system, currently with 25 members run at 4-km grid spacing.
This system is not only used operationally, but is a research
engine for exploring the influence of high-resolution ensembles
and the best ways to post-process their output to provide
calibrate uncertainty information.