Cyclone Workshop 2006


Sunday, October 22


Arrival, registration.   Dinner.


Monday, October 23


8:30 – 8:45                 Welcome and Logistics

8:45 – 10:00               Session I:  Predictability I

                                    Session Chair:  Sharan Majumdar


Assessing Predictability with a Local Ensemble Kalman Filter:  Istvan Szunyogh


Consistent Global and Mesoscale Ensembles Using Ensemble Transformation: Craig H. Bishop, Justin McLay, Sue Chen, Teddy Holt, Carolyn Reynolds, Jason Nachamkin, James Doyle


Ensemble-Based Sensitivity Analysis for Observation Targeting and Thinning: Gregory J. Hakim, Ryan D. Torn


Structure, Growth Rates, and Tangent-Linear Accuracy of Adjoint Sensitivities with Respect to Horizontal Resolution:  Brian B. Ancell, Clifford F. Mass




10:00 – 10:30             Break


10:30 – noon              Session I:  Predictability continued

                                    Session Chair: Istvan Szunyogh


Spatial Growth of Perturbations in Turbulent Baroclinic Flows: Rahul Mahajan, Gregory Hakim


Spatial Scales and Predictability in a High-Resolution Quasi-geostrophic Model: Rebecca Morss, Chris Snyder, Richard Rotunno


Dynamics of Forecast Error in an NWP System: M. Didone, D. Luethi, H. C. Davies


Reanalysis Prior to the Radiosonde Era Using Only Surface Pressure Observations: Jeffrey Whitaker , Gilbert P. Compo, Prashant D. Sardeshmukh


Evaluating the Effectiveness of the ETKF Targeting Method for 3-5 Day Forecast: Kathryn Sellwood




12:00 – 1:30               Lunch


1:30 – 3:00                 Session I:  Predictability Continued

                                    Session Chair:  Carolyn Reynolds


The Impact of Unresolved Small-Scale Motions on Targeted Observations: Daniel Hodyss, Sharanya J. Majumdar


Predictability of Severe Weather at the Mesoscale:  Fuqing Zhang


Numerical Forecast Skill over North America and Adjacent Waters: Lynn McMurdie,
Garrett Wedam.


Predictability of Cool Season Extratropical Cyclones Within Operational Models: Brian A. Colle, Michael E. Charles


Diagnosis of the 9 February 2006 East Coast Forecast ‘Challenge’: Michael Morgan
Damon Alexander, Nicholas Bassill




3:00 – 6:00                 Recreation


6:00 – 7:30                 Dinner


7:30 – 9:30                 Session II:  THORPEX and Societal Impacts

                                    Session Chair:  Greg Hakim


An Overview of the Key THORPEX Predictability and Dynamical Processes Issues: Istvan Szunyogh


An Overview of the THORPEX Pacific Asian Regional Campaign: David B. Parsons, Patrick A. Harr, Istvan Szunyogh, Tetsuo Nakazawa


US THORPEX: Science, Structure, and Activities: Jim Hansen, Lance Bosart


Accelerating Advances in Weather, Climate, and Earth-System Prediction in the 21st Century:  M. A. Shapiro, B. J. Hoskins, G. Braseur


Public Response to Hurricane Rita Forecasts Along the Texas Coast: A student research study linking classroom to reality: Rebecca Morss, Fuqing Zhang, Coauthors


9:00 – 9:30                 Discussion on the future of THORPEX


Tuesday, October 23, 2006


8:30 – 10:15               Session III:  Tropical Cyclone Predictability

                                    Session Chair:  Rebecca Morss


Assimilation of vortex position with an ensemble Kalman filter: Yongsheng Chen, Chris Snyder.


Issues in Ensemble-Based Adaptive Sampling for Tropical Cyclone Prediction: Sharanya J. Majumdar


Comparison and Interpretation of Tropical Cyclone Adaptive Observing Methods: C. Reynolds, M. Peng, S. Majumdar,  S. Aberson, C. Bishop, R. Buizza

The Use of Ensemble Techniques for Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting and for the Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Track forecast Error: James S. Goerss


Predictability of Near-Shore Tropical Cyclone Formation: Allison (2001) and “Alex” (2004): Jason Sippel, Fuqing Zhang


Predicting Tropical Cyclones Using the WRF Model: Nicholas Bassill




10:15 -- 10:45             Break


10:45 – 12:15             Session IV:  Extratropical Transistion and Predictability

                                    Session Chair:  Craig Bishop  


Predictability Associated with the Downstream Impacts of the Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones: Patrick A. Harr, Doris Anwender, Sarah Jones


The Sensitivity of Western Pacific Extratropical Transition Events to the Initial Conditions: Ryan D. Torn


Hurricanes Ivan, Jeanne, Karl (2004) and Mid-Latitude Trough Interactions: Melinda S. Peng, Ryan N. Maue, Carolyn A. Reynolds, Rolf H. Langland


Impacts of Recurving West Pacific Tropical Cyclones on Extratropical Predictability in the Northern Hemisphere: Heather M. Archambault, Lance F. Bosart, Daniel Keyser


The Extratropical Transition and Subsequent Reintensification of Supertyphoon Dale (1996):  A Storm Noteworthy for its Impact on High Latitudes:  Lance F. Bosart,
Eric P. Kelsey


Recurving Eastern North Pacific Tropical Cyclones: Kristen L. Corbosiero, Michael Dickinson, Lance Bosart


12:15 – 1:30               Lunch


1:30 – 3:15                 Session IV continued

                                    Session Chair:  Michael Morgan


Synoptic-scale Sub-tropical Forcing of Extra-tropical Flow:  Diagnostic Analyses and Model Simulations: T. Spengler, C. Schwierz, H. C. Davies


The Possible Seasonal Climate Impact from Anomalous Frequency of Recurving Tropical Cyclones: Robert Hart, Lance Bosart, Charles Hosler


                                    Session V:  Tropical Cyclones


A Climatology of Tropical Transition: R. McTaggart-Cowan, L. F. Bosart, C. A. Davis


The Development of Upshear Convection during Tropical Transition in the Subtropical Atlantic: Andrew L. Hulme, Jonathan E. Martin


Images of Hurricane Katrina (2005) below the Cloud: Timothy J. Dunkerton


The Morphology of Eyewall Lighting Outbreaks in Two Category Five Hurricanes: Steven Businger, Kirt Squires




3:30 – 6 PM                Recreation


6:00 – 7:30                 Dinner


7:30 – 8:30                 The Contributions of Professor Peter Hobbs


                                    Comments by Cliff Mass, Lance Bosart, Dave Parsons, Jonathan Martin


                                    Open Discussion


8:30-9:15                    Open Discussion of the Contributions of Professor Fred Sanders










Wednesday, October 25, 2006


8:30 – 10:00               Session VI:  Extratropical Cyclones

                                    Session Chair:  Mark Stoelinga


A Study of Coherent Tropopause Disturbances within the Northern Hemispheric Circumpolar Vortex: Joseph R. Kravitz, Daniel Keyser, Lance F. Bosart, Anantha Aiyyer


Analysis of the Potential Vorticity Budget of a Tropopause Polar Cyclone: Steven M. Cavallo, Gregory J. Hakim


Role of Upper Level PV Anomalies in Polar Low Development and Their Significance for Forecasting: Sarah F. Kew


A Multiscale Examination of a Mesoscale Cyclogenesis Event in a Polar Airstream: Thomas J. Galarneau, Jr., Daniel Keyser, Lance F. Bosart


The Influence of Shearwise Vertical Motions on the Development of an Intense Upper-Front Andrea Lopez-Lang, Jonathan E. Martin




10:00 – 10:30             Break


10:30 – 12:00             Session VI continued

                                    Session Chair:  Brian Colle


Diabatic Rossby Waves:  Aspects of their Dynamics, Climatology and Predictability: Heini Wernli, Patricia Kenzelmann


Dynamics of the 24-25 February Cyclone:  Rich Moore


Breaking Waves at the Tropopause:  Climatological Analyses of the Orientation and Links to Inter Wave-guide wave Transfer:  Olivia Martius, Cornelia Schwierz and Huw C. Davies.


Synoptic-Scale and Mesoscale Aspects of Mountain Wave Predictability: James D. Doyle
Clark Amerault, Carolyn A. Reynolds


Predictability of Downslope Windstorms: Alex Reinecke, Dale Durran




12:00 – 1:30               Lunch



1:30 – 3:15                 Session VI continued

                                    Session Chair:  Jon Martin                       


A New Framework for Extratropical Windstorm Prediction: Tim Hewson, Helen Watkin


Windstorms of the Pacific Northwest.  Bri Dotson and Cliff Mass


Hurricane Force Extratropical Cyclones as Detected by QuikSCAT: Joseph M. Sienkiewicz, Joan M. Von Ahn, Gregory M. McFadden


Analysis of Midlatitude Cyclones and Fronts Using ATOVS Soundings: Jack Dostalek


                                    Session VII:  Fronts, Frontogenesis and Frontal Analysis


The Relationship between Frontal Zones and Airstream Boundaries: Robert A. Cohen,
David Schultz


A Study of the Effect of Horizontal Contrasts in Static Stability on Frontal Behavior: Mark T. Stoelinga



3:15 – 6:00                 Recreation


6:00 – 7:30                 Dinner


7:30 – 9:30 PM          Session VII continued

Panel discussion, Dan Keyser, Chair

Unanswered questions on Fronts, Frontogenesis and Frontal Analysis


David Schultz :  Cold Fronts:  The Unknown Knowns 

Mark Stoelinga:  Lower – Tropospheric Frontal Structure above the Surface 

Dave Novak and Brian Colle:  Non – classical Frontal Evolution over the Eastern United States during 17 – 18 January 2006 

Howie Bluestein:  The Relationship between Surface Boundaries and Convective Initiation, or What’s My Line?

Fred Carr:  The Strength and Movement of an Intense Warm Front

Jon Martin:  Synoptic Evolution of the Lower Stratospheric Portion of Upper – level Fronts.







Thursday, October 26, 2006


8:30 – 10:00               Session VIII:  Precipitation and Convection

                                    Session Chair:  Paul Roebber


Unexpectedly Heavy Precipitation Due to Mesoscale Features Induced by a Landfalling Tropical Storm: Alan F. Srock, Lance F. Bosart, John Molinari


A Pacific Moisture Conveyor Belt and its Relation to Precipitation Forecasts in the Southwestern US: Peter Knippertz, Jonathan E. Martin


The Pineapple Express and its role in high-latitude extreme precipitation events:  Alain Roberge, Eyad Atallah, and John Gyakum.


Rossby Wave Precursors and Predictability of Heavy Precipitation Events in the European Alps: Cornelia Schwierz, Olivia Martius, Huw C. Davies


The Role of Moist Processes in Band Formation and Evolution during the 25 December 2002 Northeast U.S. Banded Snowstorm: David R. Novak, Brian A. Colle




10:00 – 10:30             Break


10:30 – noon              Session VIII continued

                                    Session Chair:  Steve Colucci


The Effects of Evaporation and Sublimation on Mesoscale Structures in Extratropical Cyclones:  A Case Study with the Local Model: Florian Weidle, Heini Wernli


The Prediction of Cold-Season Convective Precipitation Events within Extratropical Cyclones by Utilizing the Growth Rate Parameter: Christopher J. Melick
Larry L. Smith, Brian P. Pettegrew Amy E. Becker, Patrick S. Market, Anthony R. Lupo


Cyclones at the Dryline-Front/Outflow Boundary Intersection in the Southern Plains: Howard B. Bluestein


Derecho Formation, Evolution and MCS Interactions during BAMEX:  Nicholas D. Metz, Lance F. Bosart


A Reanalysis of the Relationship between the Synoptic Scale Cyclone and the Tri-State Tornado of 18 March 1925:  Charles A. Doswell III, Robert A. Maddox, Charlie Crisp, Matthew S. Gilmore




12:00 – 1:30               Lunch


1:30 – 3:00                 Session IX:  Extratropical Cyclones revisited

                                    Session Chair:  Conny Schwierz



Roebber’s Tail:  A Tail:  Paul J. Roebber


Stratospheric Influences on Sea-Level Cyclogenesis:  Stephen J. Colucci


Low Frequency Variability of Extratropical Cyclone Activity:  Mark R. Sinclair


Baroclinic Development within Longitudinally Varying Flows: David Schultz, Fuqing Zhang, Heini Wernli

Diagnosis:  Keeping up with the Changing Meteorological Landscape: John W. Nielsen-Gammon




7:30 – 9:30 PM          Panel Discussion, Informal session addressing the following issues:


1)    What skills should the ‘modern’ synoptician have?  Are they any different than three decades ago?


2)    The Maproom – how do we communicate and interact     about the weather in this impersonal/electronic world?


Panel Includes:  Lance Bosart, Michael Morgan, John Nielsen-Gammon, and Warren Blier.  Moderated by Lynn McMurdie.