Pacific Northwest Weather Workshop 2000

A Workshop Sponsored by the National Weather Service, the University of Washington, and the Puget Sound Chapter of the American Meteorological Society


Friday, 4 February 2000

8:00-8:45 Registration

8:45-9:00 Welcome and Bureaucratic Details: Cliff Mass and Chris Hill

Session I: Observing Systems and Model Initialization over the Pacific

9:00-9:30 Invited Talk: The Need for a Coordinated Pacific Basin Observing Program. Dr. Alexander MacDonald, Director, Forecast Systems Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado

9:30-9:45 Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) Analyses of Marine Extratropical Cyclones. Jack Dostalek, Mark DeMaria, and John Knaff, NESDIS, Colorado State

9:45-10:00 Integrating POES AMSU Data into the Forecast Process. Don Moore, NWS Spokane

10:00-10:15 Compilation of 98/99 Cold Season Storms Impacting NWS Spokane's Forecast Area. Don Moore and Ron Miller, NWS Spokane

10:15-10:45 Break

10:45-11:00 Investigation of Initialization and Forecast Errors in the Cyclone of 3 March 1999. Lynn McMurdie and Brett Newkirk, University of Washington

11:00-11:15 An Evaluation of Numerical Weather Prediction Models over the Pacific Ocean: Initial and Forecast Times. Brett Newkirk and Cliff Mass, University of Washington, and Brad Colman, NWS, Seattle

11:15-12:00 Panel and Group Discussion: Pacific Initialization: How Big of a Problem is it and How Can We Address it?

12:00-1:15 Lunch

Session II: Radar Diagnosis of Precipitation

1:15-1:30 Rainfall Characteristics and Z-R relation for Eureka, CA. Sandra Yuter, University of Washington

1:30-1:45 Use of a Vertically Pointing S-band Cloud and Precipitation Radar During CALJET: Field Testing a Radar Coupler Mode and Comparison With NEXRAD. Allen White, NOAA/ETL, Boulder, CO, D.E. Kingsmill, Desert Research Institute, Reno, NV, and Marty Ralph, NOAA/ETL, Boulder, CO

1:45-2:00 A prolonged rainshadow event: utility of weather radar and forecasting implications. Robert Nissen, Laurie Neil, and Rick Drouillard, Environment Canada

2:00-2:15 Operational Assessment of a Real-Time WSR-88D Snow Algorithm at NWSFO Reno. Mary M. Cairns, NWS, Reno, Mark Fresch, OSF, Norman, OK, Larry Osterman and Steve Otteson, NWS, Reno

Session III: Hydrological Prediction

2:15-2:30 Evaluation and Sensitivities of the MM5-DHSVM Streamflow Forecasting System. Ken Westrick, Clifford Mass, and Pascal Storck, University of Washington, and Doug McDonnal, NWS, Seattle

2:30-2:45 The Sensitivity of the Forest Canopy Representation On Peak Streamflow Prediction in the Pacific Northwest. Pascal Storck, University of Washington

2:45-3:45 General Poster Session with refreshments

Performance of the WSR-88D Tornadic Detection Algorithm in the Western U.S. Robert A. Lee, NEXRAD Operational Support Facility, Norman, OK

OSU Coastal Ocean NOPP. Roger Samuelson, Oregon State University

Analysis of Radiosonde Data for Spokane, Washington. Roco Pelatti, NWS, Spokane, WA

An Evaluation of MRF MOS Temperature Forecasts in Northern Alaska During the Cold Season: Richard Thoman, NWS, Fairbanks, Alaska

An Analysis of ENSO as a Predictor of Flood Threat. Doug McDonnal, NWS, Seattle

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies During Different Phases of ENSO. Dana Felton, NWS, Seattle

Real-Time Mesoscale Atmospheric and Hydrologic Modeling in the Pacific Northwest. Chris Hill and Brad Colman, NWS Seattle

Operational Use of Model Diagnostics. Joel Curtis, NWS, Anchorage, Alaska, and Steve Tracton, NWS, NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD

Dry Versus Wet Lightning. Dr. Sue Ferguson, USDA Forest Service, Seattle

The Washington State Road Weather Information System.  Mark Maciver, Cliff Mass, and Rick Steed, University of Washington

Session IV: Coastal and Orographic Precipitation

3:45-4:00 An Overview of the Upcoming IMPROVE Field Project in the Pacific Northwest. Mark Stoelinga, University of Washington

4:00-4:15 A Preliminary Verification of National Weather Service WFO and HPC QPF forecasts in the Pacific Northwest and Implications for Future Flood Forecasting. Bill Schneider, NWS, Portland

Session V: Forecast Preparation and Dissemination

4:15-4:30 Reassessing the Issuance Criteria for Coastal Flood Watches and Warnings, and Heavy Surf Advisories along the south Washington and North Oregon Coasts.  David B. Elson and Stephen Starmer

4:30-4:45 NCEP Plans for Improved Coastal Forecasting. Fedor Mesinger, M.S. Tracton, S. J. Lord, J. Derber, and K. Mitchell, NWS NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD

Workshop Banquet at Ramada Inn, Northgate

6:00 No-host cocktail hour

7:00 Dinner

7:45-8:45 After-dinner talk and discussion

"Regional Climate -- The Real Issue of Global Change."  Dr. Alexander MacDonald, Director, NOAA Forecast Systems Laboratory, Boulder, CO

Saturday, 5 February 2000

Session VI: Numerical Weather Prediction

8:30-9:00 Invited Talk: Coastal Orography: Does It Help or Harm Mesoscale Predictability? Wendell Nuss and Douglas Miller, Naval Postgraduate School

9:00-9:15 The Northwest MM5 Prediction System: Current Status and Future Plans. Dave Ovens,
Mark Albright, and Cliff Mass

9:15-9:30 The UW Mesoscale Ensemble System. Eric Grimit and Cliff Mass, UW, and Brad Colman, NWS

9:30-9:45 Ensemble Forecasting a Bust. Joshua Hacker, Scott Krayenhoff, and Roland Stull,
University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC

9:45-10:30 Panel and Group Discussion: Are Probablistic Forecasts the Future for the Dissemination of Weather Forecasts?

10:30-11:00 BREAK

11:00-11:15 The Effects of Domain Size and Boundary Update Frequency on Mesoscale Forecasts. Rick Steed, Nick Bond and Cliff Mass, University of Washington

11:15-11:30 Precipitation Verification Over the Pacific Northwest During the 1997-1999 Cool
Seasons. Brian Colle, SUNY Stony Brook and Clifford Mass and Ken Westrick,
University of Washington

11:30-11:45 On the Need for Local Sea State Modeling. Jay Albrecht, WSFO Seattle

Session VII: Results of Major West Coast Field Experiments

11:45-12:00 Rapid Evolution of a Landfalling Cold Front Upstream of Steep Coastal Orography: Bradley F. Smull, NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory and University of Washington, Seattle, Cheng-Ku Yu, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Brian Colle, SUNY Stony Brook

12:00-12:15 Lessons from CALJET and Plans for the Pacific Landfalling Jets Experiment
(PACJET):Marty Ralph, NOAA/ETL

12:15-1:15 LUNCH

1:15-1:30 The Impact of Offshore In-situ Observations on the Prediction of Coastal Wind and Precipitation: A Case Study. Sarah Michelson, J. W. Bao, CIRES/ETL, Boulder, CO, J. M. Wilczak, F. M. Ralph, NOAA/ETL, Boulder, CO, P. O. G. Persson, CIRES/ETL, and R. J. Zamora, NOAA/ETL

1:30-1:45 Critical Verification of Synoptic\Mesoscale Structures and Processes in MM5 during CALJET. Ola Persson, J. W. Bao, S. Michelson, CIRES/ETL, Boulder, CO, P. Neiman, M. Ralph, NOAA/ETA, Boulder, CO, and B. Walter, Northwest Research Associates, Bellevue, WA

1:45-2:00 Mesoscale Observations of West Coast Land-Falling Storms using CALJET's Coastal Profiler Array. Paul Neiman, F. M. Ralph, NOAA/ETL, Boulder, CO, P. O. G. Persson, J. W. Bao, and S. Michelson, CIRES/ETL, Boulder, CO

Session VIII: West Coast and Pacific Weather Features

2:00-2:30 Invited Talk: Impacts of Complex Terrain on Northwest Weather. David Whiteman, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA

2:30-3:00 BREAK

3:00-3:15 An Observational Study of Cold Pools in the Columbia Basin. David Whiteman, S. Zhong, W.J. Shaw, J.M. Hubbe, and X. Bian, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, and Jon Mittelstadt, NWS, Pendelton

3:15-3:30 A Numerical Study of Cold Pool Evolution in the Columbia Basin. S. Zhong, C.D. Whiteman, W.J. Shaw, J.M. Hubbe, and X. Bian, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

3:30-3:45 The diurnal cycle of the Oregon coastal lower atmosphere during summertime. Soline Bielli, P. Barbour, R. Samelson, E. Skyllingstad, Oregon State University, J. Wilczak NOAA/ETL

Session IX: The Effects of ENSO on Northwest Weather

3:45-4:00 The Effects of ENSO on Extratropical baroclinic life cycles over the North Pacific. Melvyn A. Shapiro, NOAA/Environmental Technology Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado, Heini Wernli Institute for Atmospheric Science, ETH, Zurich, Switzerland, Nicholas A. Bond, University of Washington

4:00 Summation and closing remarks. Brad Colman, NWS