Weather Forecasting and
Advanced
Synoptic Meteorology
Spring 2006
Instructors:
Professor Cliff Mass, 612 ATG, 685-0910,
email: cliff@atmos.washington.edu
Dr. Nick Bond, 526-6459 (PMEL), 685-2183 (UW)
email:nickolas.bond@noaa.gov
Class Hours:
MW 1:30-4:20 PM, TTHF 1:30-3:20 PM
Lectures generally MWF 1:30-2:20 PM, but occasionally will occur on Tuesdays or Thursdays.
Office Hours:
Anytime we are in our offices. Appointments can be made if needed. Email questions are welcome.
Book:
None. But lots of handouts and web-based materials.
Grading:
25% forecasting, 25% labs and map discussion, 25% midterm, 25% final
Class Web Site:
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~cliff/452.html
Goals of Class:
1. To learn the tools and techniques of modern weather forecasting
2. To review more advanced topics in synoptic and mesoscale meteorology
Laboratory Exercises:
Surface map analysis (both North American, regional, and oceanic)
Daily forecasting at several cities
Student-led map discussions
Regional case studies (e.g., onshore push)
Introduction.
History of weather forecasting
Overview of the forecast process.
Basic approaches to forecasting primary meteorological parameters.
Numerical weather prediction
Data collection, assimilation, and model initializationStatistical forecasting approaches: MOS and Perfect Prog methodsDescription of the major models
Ensemble forecasting
Convective systems.
Review of their structure and evolutionAviation meteorologyRadar principles and interpretation.
Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convection.
Forecasting aircraft icing, turbulence, and obstructions to visibility.Diurnal and topographically forced circulations.
Structure and evolutionNorthwest meteorologyForecasting near mountains and coastal zones
Descriptions and forecast approaches for major regional featuresHydrological prediction