Atmospheric Sciences 452

Weather Forecasting and Advanced Synoptic Meteorology
Spring 2006

Instructors:

Professor Cliff Mass, 612 ATG, 685-0910,
email: cliff@atmos.washington.edu

Dr. Nick Bond, 526-6459 (PMEL), 685-2183 (UW)
email:nickolas.bond@noaa.gov

Class Hours:

MW 1:30-4:20 PM, TTHF 1:30-3:20 PM

Lectures generally MWF 1:30-2:20 PM, but occasionally will occur on Tuesdays or Thursdays.

Office Hours:

Anytime we are in our offices. Appointments can be made if needed. Email questions are welcome.

Book:

None. But lots of handouts and web-based materials.

Grading:

25% forecasting, 25% labs and map discussion, 25% midterm, 25% final

Class Web Site:

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~cliff/452.html

Goals of Class:

1. To learn the tools and techniques of modern weather forecasting

2. To review more advanced topics in synoptic and mesoscale meteorology

Laboratory Exercises:

Surface map analysis (both North American, regional, and oceanic)
Daily forecasting at several cities
Student-led map discussions
Regional case studies (e.g., onshore push)


Course Outline
(Some Change in Order Possible)

Introduction.

History of weather forecasting

Overview of the forecast process.

Basic approaches to forecasting primary meteorological parameters.

Numerical weather prediction

Data collection, assimilation, and model initialization

Description of the major models

Statistical forecasting approaches: MOS and Perfect Prog methods

Ensemble forecasting

Convective systems.

Review of their structure and evolution

Radar principles and interpretation.

Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convection.

Aviation meteorology
Forecasting aircraft icing, turbulence, and obstructions to visibility.
Diurnal and topographically forced circulations.
Structure and evolution

Forecasting near mountains and coastal zones

Northwest meteorology
Descriptions and forecast approaches for major regional features
Hydrological prediction