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Precipitation susceptibility
The work on precipitation susceptibility attempts to get at the question:
Can the concentration of aerosol particles in the air affect precipitation rates in marine stratocumulus? We currently
don't have a clear understanding of what increased numbers of aerosol particles will do to rainfall in clouds. Much of
the response looks to depend on the type of clouds, so we've concentrated on looking at the response in low-lying liquid clouds.
This understanding will hopefully be helpful in assessing results from regional model simulations that are starting to
incorporate the effect of aerosols on clouds. To get at the effect of aerosol concentrations on marine stratocumulus
clouds, we look at correlations between precipitation rates and the concentration of ambient aerosol particles with
diameters greater than 0.1 micrometer.
The current understanding of the effect of aerosols on precipitation is that an increase in aerosol concentration leads to more
numerous and smaller cloud droplets. This slows down the rate at which cloud droplets collide with each other to form
drizzle drops. In short, less rain is expected with increased concentrations of aerosol particles.
Evidence supporting this hypothesis, which pertains only to clouds with liquid water droplets, is found in observations
from past field experiments, but quantifying the sole effect of aerosol particles has always been difficult. Changes in
aerosol concentrations coexist with changes in meteorology, such as changes in thickness of clouds.
Our study tries to account for the meteorology by grouping the clouds by cloud thickness and looking at the relationship
between aerosol concentrations and rain rate in each group. When we group the clouds by their thickness, we find
that the effect of aerosols on the precipitation varies with the thickness of the cloud. The magnitude of the precipitation
response decreases with increasing cloud thickness. We argue that most of the variation exists because in thinner clouds,
aerosol concentrations can determine whether it drizzles or not, while in thicker clouds there is so much cloud water that
it drizzles regardless of the aerosol concentration.
More details can be found in our paper below.
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