Analyses of NCEP/NCAR data

Histograms: Unfiltered reanalysis data set; 6-hour intensity changes

Histograms of vortex intensity changes as measured from tropopause potential temperature amplitude changes. Data is from NCEP reanalysis data 1948-1999 of tropopause vortices lasting at least 2 days and spending more than 60 percent of their lifetimes north of 65N. The values on the x-axis are absolute values of the changes in 6-hour changes in vortex intensity. Potential temperature amplitude is as defined in Hakim and Canavan (2003).
TPV growth only TPV decay only
TPV intensity changes (growth and decay; 1 K bins) TPV intensity changes (growth and decay; 5 K bins) TPV intensity changes (growth and decay; 10 K bins)
Same as above except bins centered at "5's" (for separating purposes later)
TPV intensity changes (growth and decay; 10 K bins)



Histograms: Filtered reanalysis data set; 6-hour intensity changes

This data set filtered out tracks in which there were vortex merger events. In those cases, there were separate tracks in the data file even though they were the same vortex after merging. Also filtered out are spikes in tropopause theta amplitude. Spikes here were defined as a sudden jump (of at least 10K) in tropopause potential temperature amplitude, immmediately followed by a reduction of amplitude by at least 75% of the original spike. These spikes were replaced with NaNs in the dataset.
TPV growth only TPV decay only
TPV intensity changes (growth and decay; 1 K bins) TPV intensity changes (growth and decay; 5 K bins) TPV intensity changes (growth and decay; 10 K bins)
Same as above except bins centered at "5's" (for separating purposes later)
TPV intensity changes (growth and decay; 10 K bins)



Histograms: Filtered reanalysis data set; 24-hour intensity changes

Filter includes vortex mergers in which there was redundant 24-hour amplitude change data and spikes in which there was a spurious change of amplitude at one or two adjacent times.
TPV growth only TPV decay only
TPV intensity changes (growth and decay; 1 K bins) TPV intensity changes (growth and decay; 5 K bins) TPV intensity changes (growth and decay; 10 K bins)
Same as above except bins centered at "5's" (for separating purposes later)
TPV intensity changes (growth and decay; 10 K bins)



TPV density plots: Filtered reanalysis data set; 6-hour amplitude changes

Large amplitude change vortex density plots
Amplitude changes of 5K or more
Amplitude changes of 10K or more
Amplitude changes of 20K or more
Amplitude changes of 30K or more



TPV density plots: Filtered reanalysis data set; 24-hour amplitude changes

Large amplitude change vortex density plots
Amplitude changes of 5K or more
Amplitude changes of 10K or more
Amplitude changes of 20K or more



Composites

The following are composites of the cyclones at the times of their greatest amplitude changes. Data from only the point where the maximum amplitude change occurred are used in the compositing. The geographic location over which to perform the compositing was chosen where the density of largest amplitude changes occurred. The density was determined by counting the number of times large amplitude changes occurred within a 5 degree latitude x 15 degree longitude box centered at each latitude and longitude pair north of 50N. In the plots below, it is those that have a potential temperature amplitude (potential temperature difference from last closed contour to center of vortex) of over 5 and 10 K. Only the anomalies at the 95% significance level from the student t test are shown.
Maximum amplitude changes of 5 K
5K cyclone growth: Greenland maximum 5K cyclone growth: Canada maximum
5K cyclone decay: Greenland maximum 5K cyclone decay: Canada maximum
5K anticyclone growth: Greenland 5K anticyclone growth: Siberia
5K anticyclone decay: Greenland 5K anticyclone decay: Siberia
Maximum amplitude changes of 10 K
10K cyclone growth: Greenland maximum 10K cyclone growth: Canada maximum
10K cyclone decay: Greenland maximum 10K cyclone decay: Canada maximum
10K anticyclone growth: Greenland 10K anticyclone growth: Siberia
10K anticyclone decay


Plots of TPV signficant growth and decay densities. For each vortex, the location in which the maximum growth and decay occurred was saved. Those vortices in which the growth and decay was more than two standard deviations from the mean were retained in the following plot. The plots show the number of vortices that had significant tropopause potential temperature amplitude changes within a 2.5 degree latitude by 7.5 degree longitude box (weighted by cos(latitude) to get equal areas) centered at each location on the map.
Signficant amplitude change density plots
Timeseries plots of cyclone and anticyclone tropopause theta amplitude for those vortices which had 6-hour tropopause theta amplitude changes of greater than 30K.
Cyclone growth Cyclone decay
Anticyclone growth Anticyclone decay
The above timeseries plots revealed 2 problems with the data: (1) There were repeated vortex tracks, both in phase and out of phase and (2) there were tropopause theta "spikes." Both of these need to be filtered out. To combat (1), it is first worth noting the "repeats" appeared adjacent to each other, suggesting a bug in the original code that generated the data sets. To take care of this, I compared each vortex track with the adjacent vortex track in the data set, and if their correlations were unity, they were removed. For the out of phase ones, I took half of the first vortex track amplitude vector centered at the middle, then took the second one and shifted it the amplitudes backward and forward in time. If at one of these shifts the correlations were unity, then then the repeat was thrown out. Further, there had to be a minimum of 4 (24 hours since each step is 6 hours) "shifts" in which the unity correlation arose. To deal with (2), we can note that if there is a spike in the amplitude, then when looking at the amplitude changes, there will be a sudden increase in amplitude immediately followed by a sudden decrease in amplitude. Following this note, I tested to see first whether there was an amplitude increase of a treshold value (40 K here). If that was followed by a drop that was at least 90 percent of what the initial increase was, then I considered it a spike and replaced that amplitude with a NaN while keeping the rest of the vortex track. Here is a visual step through of the process, using cyclone growth as the example:
After filtering out the repeats only
After filtering out the spikes only
Filtering out both the repeats and the spikes
Table of results using the filtering techniques described above for vortices in which there were amplitude changes of at least 50K.
Cyclone growth at least 50K Cyclone decay at least 50K Anticyclone growth at least 50K Anticyclone decay at least 50K
Unfiltered Unfiltered Unfiltered Unfiltered
Repeated tracks removed Repeated tracks removed Repeated tracks removed Repeated tracks removed
Amplitude spikes removed Amplitude spikes removed Amplitude spikes removed Amplitude spikes removed
Full Filter: Repeated tracks + spikes Full Filter: Repeated tracks + spikes Full Filter: Repeated tracks + spikes Full Filter: Repeated tracks + spikes
TPV density plots: Comparisons of filtered vs. unfiltered
Cyclones and anticyclones