Examining Climate Impacts on the Pacific Northwest

What's this all about?

We are interested in documenting the human and ecosystem dimensions of climate variability for the Pacific Northwest region. Floods, droughts, snowpack, temperature and streamflow . . . each of these aspects of climate impact the natural resources of the Pacific Northwest. In the past few years we have worked very hard to establish an ongoing dialogue with people in resource industries that might benefit from the "state-of-the art" in climate monitoring and prediction. This project is an interdisciplinary effort, one of the first of its kind, that involves researchers in forestry, fisheries, atmospheric sciences, marine affairs, hydrology, and public health. From 1995-2011 we've been funded by NOAA's Climate Program Office as part of the Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (RISA) program.

Research Interests

• Large-scale climate variability and predictability
• The human and ecosystem dimensions of climate variability
• The El Niño/Southern Oscillation and other modes of ocean-atmosphere climate variability

Education

• B.S., University of California at Davis, Atmospheric Sciences, 1988
• Ph. D., University of Washington, Atmospheric Sciences, 1994, under the supervision of Drs. David Battisti and Ed Sarachik
• Dissertation title: Numerical Modeling Studies of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (abstract)

Professional Experience

• Research Assistant, University of Washington, 1988-94
• Teaching Assistant, University of Washington, 1990
• Field Assistant, TOGA-COARE leg I on the R/V Moana Wave, 1992
• Postdoctoral Fellow, Scripps Institution of Oceanography/The International Research Institute for Climate Prediction, supervised by Nicholas Graham, 1994-95.
• Postdoctoral Fellow, University of Washington, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Oceans (JISAO), 1995-1997.
• Research Scientist, University of Washington, JISAO, July 1997 - present.
• Affiliate Assistant Professor, UW Department of Atmospheric Sciences, July 1998 - present.
• Affiliate Assistant Professor, UW School of Marine Affairs, June 2000 - present.
• Research Associate Professor, UW School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences, September 2006 - present.

Awards

• NOAA's Presidential Early Career Award for Scientists and Engineers, April 2000

Service

• member of the "Responding to Change" panel for the Study of Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH), January 2005-present
• member of the PICES panel on Fisheries and Ecosystem Responses to Recent Regime Shifts in the North Pacific, 2004-2005 (find our report here)
• member of the US Global Oceans Ecosystems Dynamics (GLOBEC) Scientific Steering Committee 1997-2003
• member of the National Research Council panel on the Alaska Groundfish Fishery and Stellar Sea Lions, 2001-2002
• member of the US CLIVAR Predictability, Prediction, and Applications Interface panel.
• lead author for CCSP product 5.3: Decision-Support Experiments and Evaluations using Seasonal to Interannual Forecasts and Observational Data.
• member of the PICES Physical Oceanography and Climate committee.

Publications

• Moore, S.K., N.J. Mantua, J.P. Kellogg, and J.A. Newton. 2008: Local and large-scale forcing of Puget Sound oceanographic properties on seasonal to interdecadal timescales. Limnology and Oceanography, 53(5): 1746-1758.

• Crozier, LG, PW Lawson, TP Quinn, AP Hendry, J Battin, NJ Mantua, W Eldridge, and RG Shaw (in press): Evolutionary responses to climate change for organisms with complex life histories: Columbia River salmon as a case in point. Evolutionary Applications, 1(1): 252-270.

• E K Heyerdahl, D McKenzie, L D Daniels, A E Hessl, J S Littell, and N J Mantua. 2008: Climate drivers of regionally synchronous fires in the inland Northwest (1651-1900). International Journal of Wildland Fire, 17: 40-49.

• Parrish, JK, N Bond, H Nevins, NJ Mantua, R Loeffel, WT Peterson, JT Harvey. 2007: Beached birds and physical forcing in the California Current System. Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser., 352:275-288. doi: 10.3354/meps07077

• Trites, A. W., A. J. Miller, H. D. G. Maschner, M. A. Alexander, S. J. Bograd, J. A. Calder, A. Capotondi, K. O. Coyle, E. Di Lorenzo, B. P. Finney, E. J. Gregr, C. E. Grosch, S. R. Hare, G. L. Hunt, J. Jahncke, N. B. Kachel, H.-J. Kim, C. Ladd, N. J. Mantua, C. Marzban, W. Maslowski, R. Mendelssohn, D. J. Neilson, S. R. Okkonen, J. E. Overland, K. L. Reedy-Maschner, T. C. Royer, F. B. Schwing, J. X. L. Wang and A. J. Winship, 2007: Bottom-up forcing and the decline of Steller sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus) in Alaska: Assessing the ocean climate hypothesis. Fisheries Oceanography, 16, 46-67.

• Miles, E. L., A. K. Snover, L. C. Whitely Binder, E. S. Sarachik, P. W. Mote, and N. Mantua. 2006: An approach to designing a national climate service. PNAS, December 2006; 103(52): 19613 - 19615.

• Mantua, N.J. 2006: A Decadal Chronology of 20th-Century Changes in Earth's Natural Systems. In Sustainability or Collapse? An integrated history and future of people on earth, edited by R. Costanza, L.J. Graumlich, and W. Steffen. MIT Press Books, Cambridge, MA 02142, 495pp.

• Hibbard, K.A., P.J. Crutzen, E.F. Lambin, D.M. Liverman, N.J. Mantua, J.R. McNeill, B.Messerli, and W. Steffen. 2006: Decadal-scale interactions of humans and the environment. In Sustainability or Collapse? An integrated history and future of people on earth, edited by R. Costanza, L.J. Graumlich, and W. Steffen. MIT Press Books, Cambridge, MA 02142, 495pp.

• Schwing F. B., N. A. Bond, S. J. Bograd, T. Mitchell, M. A. Alexander, N. Mantua, 2006: Delayed coastal upwelling along the U.S. West Coast in 2005: A historical perspective, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L22S01, doi:10.1029/2006GL026911.

• Mantua, N.. 2005: Upscaling for a better understanding of climate links to ecosystems. PICES Press, Vol. 13: 12-14.

• Strom, A., R.C. Francis, N.J. Mantua, E.L. Miles, and D.L. Peterson. 2005: Preserving low-frequency climate signals in growth reconstructions of geoduck clams (Panopea abrupta). PALAEO-03692: 1-12. doi:10.1016/j.palaeo.2005.03.048

• Maurer, E. P., D. P. Lettenmaier, and N. J. Mantua. 2004. Variability and predictability of North American runoff. Water Resources Research, 40, W09306, doi:10.1029/2003WR002789.

• Lawson, P.W., E.A. Logerwell, N.J. Mantua, R.C. Francis, and V.N. Agostini. 2004. Environmental factors influencing freshwater survival and smolt production in Pacific Northwest coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch). Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, Vol 61, Number 3: 360-373.

• deYoung, B., R. Harris, J. Alheit, G. Beaugrand, N. Mantua and L. Shannon. 2004: Detecting regime shifts in the ocean: Data considerations. Progress in Oceanography, vol. 60, nos. 2-4:143-164. Available online via Science Direct

• Strom, A., R. C. Francis, N. J. Mantua, E. L. Miles, and D. L. Peterson. 2004. North Pacific climate recorded in growth rings of geoduck clams: A new tool for paleoenvironmental reconstruction. Geophysical Research Letters 31, doi: 10.1029/2004GL019440, 2004. (read the article online)

• Mantua, N.J.: Methods for detecting regime shifts in large marine ecosystems: a review with approaches applied to North Pacific data. 2004. Progress in Oceanography, vol. 60, nos. 2-4:165-182. Available online via Science Direct or (preprint pdf)

• Mantua, NJ, and RC Francis. 2004: Natural climate insurance for Pacific northwest salmon and salmon fisheries: finding our way through the entangled bank. In E.E. Knudsen and D. MacDonald (editors). Sustainable Management of North American Fisheries. American Fisheries Society Symposium 43:127-140. Preprint pdf.

• Mote, P.W., E.A. Parson, A.F. Hamlet, K.G. Ideker, W.S. Keeton, D.P. Lettenmaier, N.J. Mantua, E.L. Miles, D.W. Peterson, D.L. Peterson, R., Slaughter, and A.K. Snover. 2003. Preparing for climate change: the water, salmon, and forests of the Pacific Northwest. Climatic Change.

• 2003 Francis, R.C., and N.J. Mantua: Climate and Extinction Risk for Salmon Populations of the Northeast Pacific. Eds. A. D. MacCall and T. C. Wainwright. Assessing extinction risk for West Coast salmon: Proceedings of the workshop, Nov 13-15, 1996, Seattle, WA. U.S. Dep. Commer., NOAA Tech. Memo. NMFS-NWFSC-56: 37-76. Electronic reprints will be available via the NWFSC website - http://www.nwfsc.noaa.gov/publications/techmemos

• 2003 Logerwell, EA, NJ Mantua, P. Lawson, RC Francis, and V Agostini: Tracking environmental processes in the coastal zone for understanding and predicting Oregon coho (Oncorhynchus kisutch) marine survival. Fisheries Oceanography, 12(3): 1-15. reprint pdf

• Edmonds, R.L., R.C. Francis, N.J. Mantua, and D.L. Peterson. 2003. Chapter 2. Sources of climate variability in river ecosystems. Pages 000-000 in R.C. Wissmar and P.A. Bisson, editors. Strategies for restoring river ecosystems: sources of variability and uncertainty in natural and managed systems. American Fisheries Society, Bethesda, Maryland. April 2003 Stock #550.44; ISBN 1-888569-46-8 (preprint pdf).

• 2002 Mote, P.W. and N.J. Mantua. Coastal upwelling in a warming future. Geophysical Research Letters, doi: 10.1029/2002GL016086.

• 2002 Gedalof, Z., NJ Mantua, and DL Peterson: A multi-century perspective of variability in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation: new insights from tree rings and corals. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol 29., No. 24, doi: 10.1029/2002GL015824, 2002 Reprints:pdf or compressed postscript

• 2002 Mantua, N.J., D. Haidvogal, Y. Kushnir, and N. Bond: Making the Climate connections: bridging scales of space and time in the US GLOBEC program. Oceanography. Vol 15, No 2, 75-86.

• 2002 Mantua, N.J., and P. Mote: Uncertainty in scenarios of human-caused climate change. American Fisheries Society, Symposium 32:263-272. preprint pdf

• 2002 Mantua, N.J. and S.R. Hare: The Pacific Decadal Oscillation.  Journal of Oceanography, Vol. 58 (No. 1), pp. 35-44. (preprint pdf)

• 2002 Mantua, N.J.: La Niña impacts on the Pacific Northwest. Pages 102-114 in La Niña and its impacts: facts and speculation. Edited by Michael Glantz. United Nations University Press, Tokyo, Japan. 271pp.

• 2001 Mantua, N.J.: The Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Eds M.C. McCracken and J.S. Perry, in The Encyclopedia of Global Environmental Change, Vol 1, The Earth System: physical and chemical dimension of global environmental change: 592-594. (reprint pdf, postscript, or preprint html)

• 2000 S.R. Hare and N.J. Mantua: Empirical evidence for North Pacific regime shifts in 1977 and 1989 . Progress in Oceanography. Vol 47, pp Vol 47, pp.103-145.

• 1999 P.M. Mote, M. Holmberg, N.J. Mantua and the Climate Impacts Group: Impacts of Climate Variability and Change on the Pacific Northwest. Executive Summary. Information on the full technical report is here.

• 1999 MILES, E.L., N.MANTUA and P.MOTE. ENSO impacts on the Pacific Northwest: an integrated assessment. Proceedings of Public Program, School of Marine Affairs 25th Anniversary, pp. 90-98.

• 1999 Minobe, S., and N.J. Mantua. Interdecadal Modulation of Interannual Climate Variability. ECOSYSTEM DYNAMICS IN THE EASTERN AND WESTERN GYRES OF THE SUBARCTIC PACIFIC, a special issue of Progress in Oceanography. Eds M. Angel, A. Bychkov. Vol 43, 163-192.

• 1999 Hare, S.R., N.J. Mantua, and R.C. Francis. Inverse production regimes: Alaskan and West Coast Pacific Salmon. Fisheries,. Vol. 21, No. 1, 6-14.

• 1997 Mantua, N.J. and S.R. Hare, Y. Zhang, J.M. Wallace, and R.C. Francis: A Pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon production. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 78, pp. 1069-1079.

• 1995 Mantua, N.J. and D.S. Battisti: " Aperiodic variability in the Zebiak-Cane coupled ocean-atmosphere model: ocean-atmosphere interactions in the western equatorial Pacific." J. Climate, 8, 2897-2927.

• 1994 Mantua, N.J. and D.S. Battisti: Evidence for the Delayed-Oscillator Mechanism for ENSO: the "Observed" Oceanic Kelvin mode in the Far Western Pacific." J. Phys. Oceanogr., 24, 691-699.

Reports and non-peer reviewed articles

• Mantua, N.J., N.G. Taylor, G.T. Ruggerone, K.W. Myers, D. Preikshot, X. Augerot, N.D. Davis, B. Dorner, R. Hilborn, R.M. Peterman, P. Rand, D. Schindler, J. Stanford, R.V. Walker, and C.J. Walters. 2007. The salmon MALBEC project: a North Pacific-scale study to support salmon conservation planning. (NPAFC Doc. 1060) School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195-5020, U.S.A. 48 p. (Available at http://www.npafc.org)

• (ISAB) Independent Scientific Advisory Board, 2007: Climate Change Impacts on Columbia River Basin Fish and Wildlife. ISAB Climate Change Report. Document ISAB 2007-2, available online at http://www.nwcouncil.org/library/isab/isab2007-2.htm (ad-hoc ISAB member and contributing author).

• Sound Science: Synthesizing Ecological and Socioeconomic Information about the Puget Sound Ecosystem. 2007. M H Ruckelshaus and M McClure, coordinators; prepared in cooperation with the Sound Science collaborate team. U.S. Dept. of Commerce, National Oceanoic and Anmostpheric Administration (NMFS), Northwest Fisheries Science Center. Seattle, Washington. 93p. The Sound Science document is available online at http://www.nwfsc.noaa.gov/research/shared/sound_science/documents/sound_science_finalweb.pdf. (lead author for sections 3.2 and 4.1).