A Pacific interdecadal climate oscillation
with impacts on salmon production

by Nathan J. Mantua, Steven R. Hare, Yuan Zhang,
John M. Wallace, and Robert C. Francis

Published in the
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,
June, 1997 (Vol 78, pp. 1069-1079)


Evidence gleaned from the instrumental record of climate data identifies a robust, recurring pattern of ocean-atmosphere climate variability centered over the mid-latitude Pacific basin. Over the past century, the amplitude of this climate pattern has varied irregularly at interannual-to-interdecadal time scales. There is evidence of reversals in the prevailing polarity of the oscillation occurring around 1925, 1947, and 1977; the last two reversals correspond with dramatic shifts in salmon production regimes in the North Pacific Ocean. This climate pattern also affects coastal sea and continental surface air temperatures, as well as streamflow in major west coast river systems, from Alaska to California.

An On-Line HTML VERSION of the full article is here, while postscript and adobe acrobat verions can be accessed here.

An 600 kB Postscript/PDF version of the of the published article (with one color figure!) is here.

Interested in obtaining the PDO index time series? It's here! This time series is updated periodically.

Links to related articles:

Climate and Extinction Risk for Salmon Populations of the Northeast Pacific

Inverse production regimes: Alaskan and West Coast Pacific Salmon

A nice web-article titled Long-term Climate Trends and Salmon Populations, by George Taylor (Oregon State Climatologist), is here.

corresponding author: Nathan Mantua, University of Washington, JISAO, Box 354235, Seattle, WA 98195-4235.