University of Washington Mesoscale Ensemble
Multiple 48-hour forecasts of U.S. Pacific Northwest weather by the non-hydrostatic Penn State/NCAR mesoscale model (MM5) are produced twice per day at the University of Washington. MM5 is a research oriented numerical weather prediction model, maintained by the National Center for Atmospheric Research, Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Division (NCAR/MMM).

UWME-Related Publications & Presentations

Journal Articles:
In Adobe PDF Format
  • Grimit, E. P., T. Gneiting, V. J. Berrocal and N. A. Johnson, 2007: The continuous ranked probability score for circular variables and its application to mesoscale forecast ensemble verification. Quart. J. Roy. Met. Soc., in press. [DRAFT]
  • Grimit, E. P. and C. F. Mass, 2007: Measuring the ensemble spread-error relationship with a probabilistic approach: Stochastic ensemble results. Mon. Wea. Rev., 135, 203-221. [HTML Version]
  • Eckel, F. A. and C. F. Mass, 2005: Aspects of effective mesoscale short-range ensemble forecasting. Wea. Forecasting, 20, 328-350.[HTML Version]
  • Grimit, E. P. and C. F. Mass, 2002: Initial results of a mesoscale short-range ensemble forecasting system over the Pacific Northwest. Wea. Forecasting, 17, 192-205. [HTML Version]

    Theses and Dissertations:
    In Adobe PDF Format
  • Grimit, E. P., 2004: Probabilistic Mesoscale Forecast Error Prediction Using Short-Range Ensembles. Ph.D. dissertation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, 146 pp. [Available from University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195.]
  • Eckel, F. A., 2003: Effective Mesoscale Short-Range Ensemble Forecasting. Ph.D. dissertation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, 224 pp. [Available from University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195.]
  • Grimit, E. P., 2001: Implementation and evaluation of a mesoscale short-range ensemble forecasting system over the Pacific Northwest. M.S. thesis, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, 111 pp. [Available from University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195.]

    Conference Preprints:
    In Adobe PDF Format
  • Grimit, E. P., and C. F. Mass, 2004: Forecasting mesoscale uncertainty: Short-range ensemble forecast error predictability, Preprints, 16th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction, Seattle, WA, Amer. Meteor. Soc.

    Recent Conference Presentations:
    In Adobe PDF Format
    18-21 October 2004: Joint WGNE/WGSIP/WGCM Workshop on Ensemble Methods, poster 10018, Exeter, UK
  • Redefining the Ensemble Spread-Skill Relationship from a Probabilistic Perspective, E. P. Grimit
    15 January 2004: 20th WAF / 16th NWP Conference (84th AMS Meeting), paper 24.3, Seattle, WA
  • Forecasting Mesoscale Uncertainty: Short-Range Ensemble Forecast Error Predictability, E. P. Grimit
    13 January 2004: 20th WAF / 16th NWP Conference (84th AMS Meeting), paper J6.1, Seattle, WA
  • Effective Short-Range Ensemble Forecasting, F. A. Eckel, presented by: E. P. Grimit
  • Other Papers & Presentations:
    In Adobe PDF Format
    08 October 2004: Ph.D. Final Exam Presentation Seattle, WA
  • Probabilistic Mesoscale Forecast Error Prediction Using Short-Range Ensembles, E. P. Grimit
    22 April 2004: NCEP Invited Talk Camp Springs, MD
  • UWME and Probabilistic Spread-Skill Relationships, E. P. Grimit
    24 April 2003: MURI Meeting Seattle, WA
  • Forecast Probability for the UW SREF, F. A. Eckel
    30 January 2003: NOAA/NWS Seattle, WA
  • An Update on Local MM5 Products at NWSFO-Seattle, E. P. Grimit
    11 June 2002: UW ATMS547 Seattle, WA
  • Perturbing MM5 Moisture Availability for Ensemble Forecasting, F. A. Eckel
  • Questions and comments should be directed to: Eric Grimit

    Last Updated: December 19, 2005

    [UW Atmospheric Sciences] [UW MM5 Real-Time System] [UW Weather Information ]