Numerical Weather Prediction Initialization/Forecast Evaluation



    This site provides an evaluation of initialization fields of the ETA, GFS, MRF, and NGM models from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)  in Washington, DC, the NOGAPS model from the Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center  in Monterey, CA, and the GEM model from the Canadian Meteorological Center  in Montreal, Quebec. For a description of the data sets used to verify the models, see the data links below.  This work is the result of collaborations between the University of Washington and the National Weather Service Forecast Office, Seattle, WA, and is supported by COMET/UCAR.


Please Note

Beginning April 1, 2008

These webpages have been temporarily stopped. They will resume in the fall, September 1, 2008. Sorry for the inconvenience


The model availability varies with each model. The ETA is the earliest followed by the GFS. The CMC and NOGAPS are the latest.

Initialization plots and statistics for model run initialized at: 2011060712

Summary Plots for West Coast

MODEL Upper Level Plots (centered at 250 mb) Mid-level Plots (centered at 500mb) Low-Level Plots (centered at 850mb) Surface Plots Surface Plots (close up view)
ETA ETA ETA ETA ETA ETA
GFS GFS GFS GFS GFS GFS
NOGAPS NOGAPS NOGAPS NOGAPS NOGAPS NOGAPS
CMC CMC CMC CMC CMC CMC
UKMO UKMO UKMO UKMO UKMO UKMO


Summary Plots for East Coast
MODEL Upper Level Plots (centered at 250 mb) Mid-level Plots (centered at 500mb) Low-Level Plots (centered at 850mb) Surface Plots Surface Plots (close up view)
ETA ETA -- EAST ETA -- EAST ETA -- EAST ETA -- EAST ETA -- EAST
GFS GFS -- EAST GFS -- EAST GFS -- EAST GFS -- EAST GFS -- EAST
NOGAPS NOGAPS -- EAST NOGAPS -- EAST NOGAPS -- EAST NOGAPS -- EAST NOGAPS -- EAST
CMC CMC -- EAST CMC -- EAST CMC -- EAST CMC -- EAST CMC -- EAST
UKMO UKMO -- EAST UKMO -- EAST UKMO -- EAST UKMO -- EAST UKMO -- EAST

Other Plots for West Coast

Temperature Comparisons between model and ACARS and/or Upper Air

Ship/Buoy Data

Vector Differences between model and ACARS and/or Cloud track/water vapor winds

Statistics comparing each data source and each model


Previous Model Run Initialization Plots (model initialized at): 2011060700

Forecast verification plots and statistics for 6, 12, 24, 36, 48, 60, 72 hour forecasts:
06-hour Forecast Verification Plots and Statistics for model initialized at: 2011060700
12-hour Forecast Verification Plots and Statistics for model initialized at: 2011060700
24-hour Forecast Verification Plots and Statistics for model initialized at: 2011060612
36-hour Forecast Verification Plots and Statistics for model initialized at: 2011060600
48-hour Forecast Verification Plots and Statistics for model initialized at: 2011060512
60-hour Forecast Verification Plots and Statistics for model initialized at: 2011060500
72-hour Forecast Verification Plots and Statistics for model initialized at: 2011060412


Informational Links
Click this link to learn about the color code of the plots and to see the FAQ page.

About the data used in the verification:

Cloud Track/Water Vapor Satellite Derived Winds:
    These data are produced at the  Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS)  at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. These winds are calculated by tracking the motion of finite cloud elements over a short period of time. Please see their web page for further details about this data set.

Aircraft Communications, Addressing, and Reporting System (ACARS):
    This data set is provided by the  Forecast Systems Laboratory in Boulder, CO. Several airlines have equipped their aircraft with meteorological instruments that are capable of measuring windspeed and direction, and temperature. Some also provide dew point temperature.

Surface, Ship, and Buoy Observations:
    These data are those which are received from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) .

Radiosonde Data:
    These data, like the surface data above are also received from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) .

Precipitable Water (derived via satellite):
    This data set is also a product received from the Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS) group at the University of Wisconsin-Madison.

Scatterometer Winds (derived via satellite):
    This data set is a product received from the  Ocean Physical Processes Team  at NESDIS/NOAA in Camp Springs, Maryland. The satellite is the ERS-2 satellite maintained by the  European Space Agency and the algorithm used to produce the winds is CMOD4.


    About the graphics/plotting package:

GEMPAK Plotting Package:
    All viewable gif files are generated with GEneral Meteorological PAcKage (GEMPAK) .


Links to sites that support and use this effort:

COMET/UCAR Homepage

Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington

University of Washington

National Weather Service Forecast Office, Seattle, WA

National Weather Service Forecast Office, Billings, MT

This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant No. 0450684

These files are updated as the verification data are received. Please let the author know if a problem arises in product availability by clicking on the link below.

If you have comments or suggestions, email me at mcmurdie@atmos.washington.edu
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