Budgets Falling in Race to Fight Global Warming

Budgets Falling in Race to = Fight Global=20 Warming

DENVER =97 Cheers fit for a revival meeting swept a hotel ballroom as = 1,800=20 entrepreneurs and experts watched a PowerPoint presentation of the most=20 promising technologies for limiting global=20 warming: solar power, wind, ethanol and other farmed fuels, = energy-efficient=20 buildings and fuel-sipping cars.

=93Houston,=94 Charles F. Kutscher, chairman of the Solar 2006 conference, concluded in a = twist on=20 the line from the movie =93Apollo 13,=94 =93we have a solution.=94

Hold the applause. For all the enthusiasm about alternatives to coal = and oil,=20 the challenge = of=20 limiting emissions of carbon dioxide, which traps heat, will be immense = in a=20 world likely to add 2.5 billion people by midcentury, a host of other = experts=20 say. Moreover, most of those people will live in countries like China = and India,=20 which are just beginning to enjoy an electrified, air-conditioned mobile = society.

The challenge is all the more daunting because research into energy=20 technologies by both government and industry has not been rising, but = rather=20 falling.

In the United=20 States, annual federal spending for all energy research and = development =97=20 not just the research aimed at climate-friendly technologies =97 is less = than half=20 what it was a quarter-century ago. It has sunk to $3 billion a year in = the=20 current budget from an inflation-adjusted peak of $7.7 billion in 1979,=20 according to several different studies.

Britain, for one, has sounded a loud alarm about the need for prompt = action=20 on the climate issue, including more research. [A report commissioned by = the=20 British government and scheduled to be released today calls for spending = to be=20 doubled worldwide on research into low-carbon technologies; without it, = the=20 report says, coastal flooding and a shortage of drinking water could = turn 200=20 million people into refugees.]

President Bush has sought an increase to $4.2 billion for 2007, but = that=20 would still be a small fraction of what most climate and energy experts = say=20 would be needed.

Federal spending on medical research, by contrast, has nearly = quadrupled, to=20 $28 billion annually, since 1979. Military research has increased 260 = percent,=20 and at more than $75 billion a year is 20 times the amount spent on = energy=20 research.

Internationally, government energy research trends are little = different from=20 those in the United States. Japan=20 is the only economic power that increased research spending in recent = decades,=20 with growth focused on efficiency and solar technology, according to the = International Energy Agency.

In the private sector, studies show that energy companies have a long = tradition of eschewing long-term technology quests because of the lack = of=20 short-term payoffs.

Still, more than four dozen scientists, economists, engineers and=20 entrepreneurs interviewed by The New York Times said that unless the = search for=20 abundant non-polluting energy sources and systems became far more = aggressive,=20 the world would probably face dangerous warming and international strife = as=20 nations with growing energy demands compete for increasingly inadequate=20 resources.

Most of these experts also say existing energy alternatives and = improvements=20 in energy efficiency are simply not enough.

=93We cannot come close to stabilizing temperatures=94 unless humans, = by the end=20 of the century, stop adding more CO2 to the atmosphere than it can = absorb, said=20 W. David Montgomery of Charles=20 River Associates, a consulting group, =93and that will be an = economic=20 impossibility without a major R.& D. investment.=94

A sustained push is needed not just to refine, test and deploy known=20 low-carbon technologies, but also to find =93energy technologies that = don=92t have a=20 name yet,=94 said James A. Edmonds, a chief scientist at the Joint = Global Change=20 Research Institute of the University=20 of Maryland and the Energy Department.

At the same time, many energy experts and economists agree on another = daunting point: To make any resulting =93alternative=94 energy options = the new norm=20 will require attaching a significant cost to the carbon emissions from = coal, oil=20 and gas.

=93A price incentive stirs people to look at a thousand different = things,=92 =94=20 said Henry D. Jacoby, a climate and energy expert at the Mas= sachusetts=20 Institute of Technology.

For now, a carbon cap or tax is opposed by President Bush, most = American=20 lawmakers and many industries. And there are scant signs of consensus on = a=20 long-term successor to the Kyoto Protocol, the first treaty obligating=20 participating industrial countries to cut warming emissions. (The United = States=20 has not ratified the pact.)

The next round of talks on Kyoto and an underlying voluntary treaty = will take=20 place next month in Nairobi, Kenya.

Environmental campaigners, focused on promptly establishing binding = limits on=20 emissions of heat-trapping gases, have tended to play down the need for = big=20 investments seeking energy breakthroughs. At the end of =93An = Inconvenient Truth,=94=20 former Vice President Al=20 Gore=92s documentary film on climate change, he concluded: =93We = already know=20 everything we need to know to effectively address this problem.=94

While applauding Mr. Gore=92s enthusiasm, many energy experts said = this stance=20 was counterproductive because there was no way, given global growth in = energy=20 demand, that existing technology could avert a doubling or more of = atmospheric=20 concentrations of carbon dioxide in this century.

Mr. Gore has since adjusted his stance, saying existing technology is = sufficient to start on the path to a stable climate.

Other researchers say the chances of success are so low, unless = something=20 breaks the societal impasse, that any technology quest should also = include work=20 on increasing the resilience to climate extremes =97 through actions = like=20 developing more drought-tolerant crops =97 as well as last-ditch climate = fixes,=20 like testing ways to block some incoming sunlight to counter warming. =

Without big reductions in emissions, the midrange projections of most = scenarios envision a rise of 4 degrees or so in this century, four times = the=20 warming in the last 100 years. That could, among other effects, produce = a=20 disruptive mix of intensified flooding and withering droughts in the = world=92s=20 prime agricultural regions.

Sir Nicholas Stern, the chief of Britain=92s economic service and = author of the=20 new government report on = climate=20 options, has summarized the cumulative nature of the threat succinctly: = =93The=20 sting is in the tail.=94

The Carbon Dioxide Problem

Many factors intersect to make the prompt addressing of global = warming very=20 difficult, experts say.

A central hurdle is that carbon dioxide accumulates in the atmosphere = like=20 unpaid credit card debt as long as emissions exceed the rate at which = the gas is=20 naturally removed from the atmosphere by the oceans and plants. But the=20 technologies producing the emissions evolve slowly.

A typical new coal-fired power plant, one of the largest sources of=20 emissions, is expected to operate for many decades. About one large = coal-burning=20 plant is being commissioned a week, mostly in China.

=93We=92ve got a $12 trillion capital investment in the world energy = economy and=20 a turnover time of 30 to 40 years,=94 said John P. Holdren, a physicist = and=20 climate expert at Harvard=20 University and president of the American Association for the = Advancement of=20 Science. =93If you want it to look different in 30 or 40 years, you=92d = better start=20 now.=94

Many experts say this means the only way to affordably speed the = transition=20 to low-emissions energy is with advances in technologies at all stages = of=20 maturity.

Examples include:

=B6 Substantially improving the efficiency and cost of solar = panels;

=B6 Conducting full-scale tests of systems for capturing carbon = dioxide from=20 power plants and pumping it underground;

=B6 Seeking efficient ways to generate fuels from crops;

=B6 Finding new ways to store vast amounts of energy harvested = intermittently=20 from the wind and sun.

Carbon dioxide levels will stabilize only if each generation persists = in=20 developing and deploying alternatives to unfettered fossil-fuel = emissions, said=20 Robert = H.=20 Socolow, a physicist and co-director of a Princeton =93carbon mitigation=20 initiative=94 created with $20 million from BP and Ford=20 Motor.

The most immediate gains could come simply by increasing energy = efficiency.=20 If efficiency gains in transportation, buildings, power transmission and = other=20 areas were doubled from the longstanding rate of 1 percent per year to 2 = percent, Dr. Holdren wrote in the = M.I.T.=20 journal Innovations earlier this year, that could hold the amount of = new=20 nonpolluting energy required by 2100 to the amount derived from fossil = fuels in=20 2000 =97a huge challenge, but not impossible.

Another area requiring immediate intensified work, Dr. Holdren and = other=20 experts say, is large-scale demonstration of systems for capturing = carbon=20 dioxide from coal burning before too many old-style plants are built. =

All of the components for capturing carbon dioxide and disposing of = it=20 underground are already in use, particularly in oil fields, where = pressurized=20 carbon dioxide is used to drive the last dregs of oil from the ground. =

In this area, said David = Keith,=20 an energy expert at the University of Calgary, =93We just need to build = the damn=20 things on a billion-dollar scale.=94

In the United States, the biggest effort along these lines is the=20 285-megawatt Fu= turegen=20 power plant planned by the Energy Department, along with private and=20 international partners, that was announced in 2003 by President Bush and = is=20 scheduled to be built in either Illinois or Texas by 2012. James L. = Connaughton,=20 the chairman of the White House Council on Environmental Quality, said = the Bush=20 administration was making this a high priority.

=93We share the view that a significantly more aggressive agenda on = carbon=20 capture and storage and zero-pollution coal is necessary,=94 he said, = adding that=20 the administration has raised annual spending on storage options =93from = essentially zero to over $70 million.=94

Europe is pursuing a suite of such plants, including one in China, = but also=20 well behind the necessary pace, several experts said.

Even within the Energy Department, some experts are voicing = frustration over=20 the pace of such programs. =93What I don=92t like about Futuregen,=94 = said Dr.=20 Kutscher, an engineer at the National = Renewable=20 Energy Laboratory in Golden, Colo., =93is the word =91future=92 in = there.=94

Beyond a Holding Action

No matter what happens in the next decade or so, many experts say, = the second=20 and probably hardest phase of stabilizing the level of carbon dioxide = will fall=20 to the generation of engineers and entrepreneurs now in diapers, and the = one=20 after that. And those innovators will not have much to build on without = greatly=20 increased investment now in basic research.

There is plenty of ferment. Current research ranges from work on = algae=20 strains that can turn sunlight into hydrogen fuel to the inkjet-style = printing=20 of photovoltaic cells =97 a technique that could greatly cut = solar-energy costs if=20 it worked on a large scale. One company is promoting high-flying = kite-like=20 windmills to harvest the boundless energy in the jet stream.

But all of the small-scale experimentation will never move into the = energy=20 marketplace without a much bigger push not only for research and = development,=20 but for the lesser-known steps known as demonstration and = deployment.

In this arena, there is a vital role for government spending, many = experts=20 agree, particularly on =93enabling technologies=94 =97 innovations that = would never be=20 pursued by private industry because they mainly amount to a public good, = not a=20 potential source of profit, said Christopher = Green, an=20 economist at McGill University.

Examples include refining ways to securely handle radioactive waste = from=20 nuclear reactors; testing repositories for carbon dioxide captured at = power=20 plants; and, perhaps more important, improving the electricity grid so = that it=20 can manage large flows from intermittent sources like windmills and = solar=20 panels.

=93Without storage possibilities on a large scale,=94 Mr. Green said, = =93solar and=20 wind will be relegated to niche status.=94

While private investors and entrepreneurs are jumping into = alternative energy=20 projects, they cannot be counted on to solve such problems, economists = say,=20 because even the most aggressive venture capitalists want a big payback = within=20 five years.

Many scientists say the only real long-term prospect for = significantly=20 substituting for fossil fuels is a breakthrough in harvesting solar = power. This=20 has been understood since the days of Thomas Edison. In a conversation = with=20 Henry Ford and the tire tycoon Harvey Firestone in 1931, shortly before = Edison=20 died, he said: =93I=92d put my money on the sun and solar energy. What a = source of=20 power! I hope we don=92t have to wait until oil and coal run out before = we tackle=20 that.=94

California, following models set in Japan and Germany,=20 is trying to help solar energy with various incentives.

But such initiatives mainly pull existing technologies into the = market,=20 experts say, and do little to propel private research toward the next = big=20 advances.

The Role of Leadership

At the federal level, the Bush administration was criticized by = Republican=20 and Democratic lawmakers at several recent hearings on climate change. =

Mr. Connaughton, the lead White House official on the environment, = said most=20 critics are not aware of how much has been done.

=93This administration has developed the most sophisticated and = carefully=20 considered strategic = plan for=20 advancing the technologies that are a necessary part of the climate = solution,=94=20 he said. He added that the administration must weigh tradeoffs with = other=20 pressing demands like health care.

Since 2001, when Mr. Bush abandoned a campaign pledge to limit carbon = dioxide=20 from power plants, he has said that too little is known about specific = dangers=20 of global warming to justify hard targets or mandatory curbs for the = gas.

He has also asserted that any solution will lie less in regulation = than in=20 innovation.

=93My answer to the energy question also is an answer to how you deal = with the=20 greenhouse-gas issue, and that is new technologies will change how we = live,=94 he=20 said in May.

But critics, including some Republican lawmakers, now say that = mounting=20 evidence for risks =97 including findings that administration officials = have tried=20 to suppress of late =97 justifies prompt, more aggressive action to pay = for or=20 spur research and speed the movement of climate-friendly energy options = into the=20 marketplace.

Martin I. Hoffert, an emeritus professor of physics at New=20 York University, said that what was needed was for a leader to = articulate=20 the energy challenge as President John=20 F. Kennedy made his case for the mission to the moon. President = Kennedy said=20 his space goals were imperative, =93not because they are easy, but = because they=20 are hard.=94

In a report on competitiveness and research released last year, the = National=20 Academies, the country=92s top science advisory body, urged the = government to=20 substantially expand spending on long-term basic research, particularly = on=20 energy.

The report, titled =93Rising Above the = Gathering=20 Storm,=94 recommended that the Energy Department create a = research-financing=20 body similar to the 48-year-old Defense Advanced Research Projects = Agency, or=20 Darpa, to make grants and attack a variety of energy questions, = including=20 climate change.

Darpa, created after the Soviet Union launched Sputnik in 1957, was = set up=20 outside the sway of Congress to provide advances in areas like weapons,=20 surveillance and defensive systems. But it also produced technologies = like the=20 Internet and the global positioning system for navigation.

Mr. Connaughton said it would be premature to conclude that a new = agency was=20 needed for energy innovation.

But many experts, from oil-industry officials to ecologists, agree = that the=20 status quo for energy research will not suffice.

The benefits of an intensified energy quest would go far beyond = cutting the=20 risks of dangerous climate change, said Roger H. Bezdek, an economist at = Management Information Systems, a consulting group.

The world economy, he said, is facing two simultaneous energy = challenges=20 beyond global warming: the end of relatively cheap and easy oil, and the = explosive demand for fuel in developing countries.

Advanced research should be diversified like an investment portfolio, = he=20 said. =93The big payoff comes from a small number of very large = winners,=94 he said.=20 =93Unfortunately, we cannot pick the winners in advance.=94

Ultimately, a big increase in government spending on basic energy = research=20 will happen only if scientists can persuade the public and politicians = that it=20 is an essential hedge against potential calamity.

That may be the biggest hurdle of all, given the unfamiliar nature of = the=20 slowly building problem =97 the antithesis of epochal events like Pearl = Harbor,=20 Sputnik and 9/11 that triggered sweeping enterprises.

=93We=92re good at rushing in with white hats,=94 said Bobi Garrett, = associate=20 director of planning and technology management at the National Renewable = Energy=20 Laboratory. =93This is not a problem where you can do=20 that.=94

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