Pacific Northwest Weather Workshop – 2013
1-2 March 2013
Building 9 Auditorium
NOAA Western Regional Center
7600 Sand Point Way, Seattle, WA 98115
Friday, 1 March
12N-1:00 PM Registration
1:00-1:15 Welcome and Workshop Plans
Brad Colman, Meteorologist in Charge, NOAA/NWS WFO Seattle
Session I: Northwest Climate and Weather (Tamara Miller-Glahn)
1:15-1:30 The Top 5 Weather and Climate Events of 2012
Karin Bumbaco and N.A. Bond, Office of the Washington State Climatologist
1:30-1:45 Climate forcing of the coastal waters of the Pacific Northwest: Evaluation of seasonal predictions from the Coupled Forecast System (CFS)
N.A. Bond, A.J. Hermann and S. Siedlecki, University of Washington/JISAO
1:45-2:00 King Tides, Storm Surges, and Sea Level Rise in Seattle, Washington
James Rufo Hill, SPU
2:00-2:15 Summertime surface ozone variability over western Washington
Todd Mitchell and Joel Thornton. University of Washington
2:15-2:30 Weather for the last winter: A satellite view
Mindy Brugman, Coastal and Mountain Meteorology National Lab, MSC, Environment Canada
2:30-3:00 Break
with refreshments
Session II: Northwest Resilience to Extreme Weather (Brad Colman)
Ted Buehner, National Weather Service
Dorothy Reed, University of Washington
James Rufo-Hill, Seattle Public Utilities
Larry Schick, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers
3:00-3:45 Panel Presentation (including representatives from the National Weather Service, State and local agencies). Plenary Discussion.
Session III: Hydrologic Forecasting & Impacts (Michael Fagin)
3:45-4:00 Climatological Characteristics of Atmospheric Rivers and Their Inland Penetration over the Western United States
Jon
Rutz, NWS
4:00-4:15 Atmospheric River Frequency and Intensity
Changes in CMIP5 Climate Model Projections
Michael Warner, UW
4:15-4:30 OLYMPEX: A ground Validation Program on the Olympic Peninsula in the Pacific Northwest
Lynn McMurdie, Bob Houze, Walt Petersen, Robert Baccus, UW
4:30-4:45 Reservoir Flood Operations: Worst-case event Disturbing lessons from the severe flooding in Brisbane, Australia – January 2011
Larry Schick – Water Management U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Seattle
4:45-5:00 Community Hydrologic Prediction System - Opening the River Forecast 'Black Box' to the NWS Weather Forecast Office
Brent Bower, NWS, Seattle
5:00-5:15 Spring Drowning and Water Emergencies are Predictable and Preventable
Jim French, Washington State Parks and Recreation Commission
Workshop Banquet
6:00-9:00 Uncertainty Forecasts & General Public End Users
Professor Susan Joslyn, Department of Psychology, University of Washington
Workshop Banquet at the Talaris Conference Center
4000 NE 41st St, Seattle, WA 98105
6:00-7:00 PM Icebreaker – no host bar
7:00-8:00 PM Buffet Dinner
Saturday, March 2
Session IV: Impact Decision Support Services (Michael Warner)
9:00-9:15 A weather ready nation: The National Weather Services' strategic vision
Brad Colman, NWS Seattle
9:15-9:30 New Efforts in DSS - Reducing Uncertainty in Information Packaging
Shad Keene, NWS
9:30-9:45 A new look at warm season diurnal winds over the Pacific Northwest
Matt Brewer, UW
9:45-10:00 PISTE: A Snow-Physics Model for Groomed Ski Slopes in the Pacific Northwest
Rosie Howard and Roland Stull, UBC Dept. of Earth, Ocean & Atmospheric Sciences
10:00-10:15 AgWeatherNet: Effective Communication of Northwest Weather Data and Decision Support Information in the 21st Century
Nicholas Loyd, Gerrit Hoogenboom, Sean Hill, Derek Weaver, Rebecca Boose, Washington State University, AgWeatherNet
10:15-10:45 Break with refreshments
10:45-11:00 Spot Forecasts - What Are They, Tell Me More!
Andy
Haner - NWS Seattle, Incident Meteorologist
11:00-11:15 Spot Forecast Applications - Who'da
Thought!
Ted
Buehner - NWS Seattle, Warning Coordination Meteorologist
Session V: Regional Prediction
11:15-11:30 Update on the Northwest Regional Prediction System
Cliff Mass, UW
11:30-11:45 The Meteorological Development Laboratory's new SREF Winter Guidance (SWinG)
Brad Colman, NWS Seattle, Matt Peroutka and John Wagner, MDL, NWS.
11:45-12:45 Lunch
(included with registration)
Session VI: Local Weather Features
12:45-1:00 Detailed examination of 2-dimensional surface pressure gradients over Northwest Oregon for significant windstorms 1945-2012, with a focus on the 1962 Columbus Day Storm
Wolf Reed, UBC
1:00-1:15 Dual-pol case studies from Western Washington
Kirby Cook, NWS, Seattle
1:15-1:30 Why are Trowals drawn so often in Canada?
Mindy Brugman. Coastal and Mountain Meteorology National Lab, MSC, Environment Canada
1:30-1:45 Patterns of Pacific Northwest wintertime sea-level pressure variability
Brian
V. Smoliak, Department of Atmospheric Science, University of Washington,
Seattle, WA
1:45-2:00 Break
2:00-2:15 SnowWatch and the Great Inversion of 2013
James Rufo-Hill, Seattle Public Utilities
2:15-2:30 Winter-time Lightning in the North Pacific.
Lynn McMurdie, U.W.
2:45-3:00 Forecasting, Communicating, and Diagnosing Wintertime Air Quality in the Puget Sound: Successes and Challenges.
Philip C. Swartzendruber, Puget Sound Clean Air Agency
3:00 Closing remarks
