Friday, March 1 -- Saturday, March 2, 2013
NOAA Western Regional Center, Seattle WA
©2010 Reid Wolcott Photography


Pacific Northwest Weather Workshop – 2013


1-2 March 2013

Building 9 Auditorium

NOAA Western Regional Center

7600 Sand Point Way, Seattle, WA 98115


Friday, 1 March

12N-1:00 PM Registration

1:00-1:15         Welcome and Workshop Plans

                        Brad Colman, Meteorologist in Charge, NOAA/NWS WFO Seattle

Session I:  Northwest Climate and Weather (Tamara Miller-Glahn)

1:15-1:30         The Top 5 Weather and Climate Events of 2012

Karin Bumbaco and N.A. Bond, Office of the Washington State Climatologist


1:30-1:45         Climate forcing of the coastal waters of the Pacific Northwest: Evaluation of seasonal predictions from the Coupled Forecast System (CFS)

                        N.A. Bond, A.J. Hermann and S. Siedlecki, University of Washington/JISAO


1:45-2:00         King Tides, Storm Surges, and Sea Level Rise in Seattle, Washington

                        James Rufo Hill, SPU


2:00-2:15         Summertime surface ozone variability over western Washington

                        Todd Mitchell and Joel Thornton. University of Washington


2:15-2:30         Weather for the last winter: A satellite view

                        Mindy Brugman, Coastal and Mountain Meteorology National Lab, MSC, Environment Canada


2:30-3:00        Break with refreshments


Session II:  Northwest Resilience to Extreme Weather (Brad Colman)

                        Ted Buehner, National Weather Service

                        Dorothy Reed, University of Washington

                        James Rufo-Hill, Seattle Public Utilities

                        Larry Schick, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers


3:00-3:45         Panel Presentation (including representatives from the National Weather Service, State and local agencies).  Plenary Discussion.


Session III:  Hydrologic Forecasting & Impacts (Michael Fagin)


3:45-4:00         Climatological Characteristics of Atmospheric Rivers and Their Inland Penetration over the Western United States

                        Jon Rutz, NWS


4:00-4:15         Atmospheric River Frequency and Intensity Changes in CMIP5 Climate Model Projections

                        Michael Warner, UW


4:15-4:30         OLYMPEX:  A ground Validation Program on the Olympic Peninsula in the Pacific Northwest 

                        Lynn McMurdie, Bob Houze, Walt Petersen, Robert Baccus, UW


4:30-4:45         Reservoir Flood Operations: Worst-case event   Disturbing lessons from the severe flooding in Brisbane, Australia – January 2011

                        Larry Schick – Water Management U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Seattle


4:45-5:00         Community Hydrologic Prediction System - Opening the River Forecast 'Black Box' to the NWS Weather Forecast Office  

                        Brent Bower, NWS, Seattle


5:00-5:15         Spring Drowning and Water Emergencies are Predictable and Preventable

                        Jim French, Washington State Parks and Recreation Commission



Workshop Banquet


6:00-9:00        Uncertainty Forecasts & General Public End Users

Professor Susan Joslyn, Department of Psychology, University of Washington


                        Workshop Banquet at the Talaris Conference Center  

                        4000 NE 41st St, Seattle, WA 98105


                        6:00-7:00 PM    Icebreaker – no host bar

                        7:00-8:00 PM    Buffet Dinner


Saturday, March 2


Session IV:  Impact Decision Support Services (Michael Warner)


9:00-9:15         A weather ready nation:  The National Weather Services' strategic vision

                        Brad Colman, NWS Seattle


9:15-9:30         New Efforts in DSS - Reducing Uncertainty in Information Packaging

                        Shad Keene, NWS


9:30-9:45         A new look at warm season diurnal winds over the Pacific Northwest

                        Matt Brewer, UW


9:45-10:00       PISTE: A Snow-Physics Model for Groomed Ski Slopes in the Pacific Northwest

                        Rosie Howard and Roland Stull, UBC Dept. of Earth, Ocean & Atmospheric Sciences


10:00-10:15     AgWeatherNet: Effective Communication of Northwest Weather Data and   Decision Support Information in the 21st Century

                        Nicholas Loyd, Gerrit Hoogenboom, Sean Hill, Derek Weaver, Rebecca Boose,      Washington State University, AgWeatherNet

10:15-10:45     Break with refreshments



10:45-11:00     Spot Forecasts - What Are They, Tell Me More!
                        Andy Haner - NWS Seattle, Incident Meteorologist

11:00-11:15     Spot Forecast Applications - Who'da Thought!
                        Ted Buehner - NWS Seattle, Warning Coordination Meteorologist


Session V:  Regional Prediction


11:15-11:30     Update on the Northwest Regional Prediction System 

                        Cliff Mass, UW


11:30-11:45     The Meteorological Development Laboratory's new SREF Winter Guidance (SWinG) 

                        Brad Colman, NWS Seattle, Matt Peroutka and John Wagner, MDL, NWS.



11:45-12:45    Lunch (included with registration)



Session VI:    Local Weather Features


12:45-1:00       Detailed examination of 2-dimensional surface pressure gradients over Northwest Oregon for significant windstorms 1945-2012, with a focus on the 1962 Columbus Day Storm

                        Wolf Reed, UBC


1:00-1:15         Dual-pol case studies from Western Washington

                        Kirby Cook, NWS, Seattle


1:15-1:30         Why are Trowals drawn so often in Canada? 

                        Mindy Brugman. Coastal and Mountain Meteorology National Lab, MSC, Environment Canada


1:30-1:45         Patterns of Pacific Northwest wintertime sea-level pressure variability

                        Brian V. Smoliak, Department of Atmospheric Science, University of Washington, Seattle, WA


1:45-2:00         Break


2:00-2:15         SnowWatch and the Great Inversion of 2013

                        James Rufo-Hill, Seattle Public Utilities


2:15-2:30         Winter-time Lightning in the North Pacific. 

                        Lynn McMurdie, U.W.


2:45-3:00         Forecasting, Communicating, and Diagnosing Wintertime Air Quality in the Puget Sound: Successes and Challenges.

                        Philip C. Swartzendruber, Puget Sound Clean Air Agency


3:00                 Closing remarks