Pacific Northwest Climate Variability:
the record, mechanisms, and
impacts
and the potential applications of climate
forecasts
Honors Arts and Sciences 220A -- Fall 2001
Profs. David Battisti and Nathan Mantua
Syllabus
1) Introduction
a) Goals, Logistics, Web page, Evaluation Methods, Personnel;
b) Weather versus Climate;
c) Fundamentals: Pressure, Temperature, and Heat Transfer
Part I: Climate Basics
2) Climate: global and regional views
-
Earth's energy balance
-
the seasons
-
General circulation of the atmosphere
-
winds and upwelling
-
controls on mean climate
3) Patterns of Natural Climate Variability
-
El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
-
Pacific North American (PNA)
-
Pattern Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)
-
Arctic Oscillation (AO)
Part II: Climate Impacts
4) Paleo-Evidence for Cultural Impacts of Climate Variability and Change
-
Little Ice Age
-
East Coast Mega-drought
5) Modern Record of Climate Impacts
a) Global Impacts of ENSO: teleconnected
climate anomalies
and known effects on ecosystems; the 1997-98 El Niño event --
the climate event of the century?
b) PDO impacts in western
North America: influences on the marine ecosystems and
terrestrial hydrology (e.g., winter precipitation, snow pack, and streamflow)
c) Arctic Oscillation impacts
on extreme weather events
6) Long-lived drought in the West
a) Historic Drought episodes and their impacts:
the Texas Drought; the 1930's Dust Bowl;
Mega droughts
throughout the last millennium
b) Mechanisms for drought
7) Examples from the Pacific Northwest
Lesson's from the experience of UW's Climate
Impacts Group:
a) Water
Resources
b) Marine
Ecosystems
8) Using Climate Information to Improve Resource Management and Stewardship
a) Introduction: The Inca and
ENSO forecasts
b) What is a climate forecast?
Climate prediction vs. weather prediction;
c) Examples
of skillful seasonal climate prediction
Is it "storminess due to El Niño", or an "El Niño storm"?
d) Making Climate
Forecasts Matter
e) Institutional
Barriers and Opportunities
Part III: Anthropogenic Climate Change
9) Human Induced Climate Change: the greenhouse
effect and global warming
a) Mechanisms of human induced
climate change
b) The Carbon Budget
c) Projections of Future
Climate:
How are they made? How reliable are they?
d) Climate Change and the
Pacific Northwest
10) The Intersection of Science and Policy: The IPCC Process
-- Debate --
-- Symposium
--
url: http://www.atmos.washington.edu/honors_220/syllabus.html
Last Modified: September 6, 2001