Nov. 5 Caren Marzban, UW Statistics Department and APL

Optical flow for verification: A comparison of MM5, COAMPS, and WRF-ARW

Abstract: An image processing method is adapted to performing verification on meteorological fields. The method, called Optical Flow, is then applied to sea-level pressure forecasts from MM5, COAMPS, and WRF-ARW, for the period March 2008 to March 2009. The approach allows for a decomposition of forecast error into intensity and displacement components. It is shown that forecast quality can be assessed and comparisons, although difficult, can be made between the models. Also, model systematic biases can be identified.