[ W WA | SW WA and W OR | SE WA and NE OR | NE WA and N ID ]

Western Washington


332 
FXUS66 KSEW 260017 CCA
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
330 PM PDT SAT OCT 25 2014

CORRECTED DATE.

.SYNOPSIS...A DEEP LOW WILL REACH THE COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND 
THEN FILL AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST. RAIN AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL 
OCCUR THIS EVENING OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL 
BE SHOWERY. ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY. WET AND 
BREEZY WEATHER IS LIKELY AT TIMES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...BUOY AND METAR OBSERVATIONS FROM THE OREGON COAST SHOW 
STRONG WINDS ARE HEADED TOWARD WASHINGTON. A DEEP LOW WILL REACH THE 
CENTRAL WASHINGTON COAST AROUND 00Z AND SLOWLY FILL AS IT MOVES 
NORTHEAST. BY AROUND 04Z IT WILL CROSS ADMIRALTY INLET RESULTING IN 
A VERY STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS 
THE SEATTLE METRO AREA. A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL 
ZONES FROM EVERETT SOUTH INCLUDING THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR AND THE 
COAST. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 20-40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH 
ARE LIKELY.

HIGH WIND IN THE SEATTLE AREA IS RARE...ESPECIALLY THIS EARLY IN THE 
YEAR. MOST TREES STILL HAVE THEIR LEAVES...WHICH MEANS THEY ARE MORE 
LIKELY TO TOPPLE IN HIGH WIND. POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. 

THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN BRITISH 
COLUMBIA. WIND WILL SPREAD TO THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR BUT AT THIS 
POINT THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUB HIGH WIND. A WIND 
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THERE.

SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW ON SUNDAY. THE SNOW LEVEL 
IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL FALL BELOW 5000 FEET OR SO AND SOME SNOW ON 
THE HIGHER PASSES IS LIKELY. SHOWERS TAPER SUNDAY NIGHT AND AT LEAST 
THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY WILL PROBABLY BE DRY. THE NEXT FRONT 
ARRIVES ON THE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND SPREADS RAIN INLAND MONDAY 
NIGHT...WITH TUESDAY A COOL SHOWERY DAY. BURKE

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH 
SCATTERED SHOWERS. ANOTHER ORGANIZED SYSTEM ARRIVES THURSDAY. AT 
THIS POINT THE GFS AND EURO DIVERGE WITH THE EURO STAYING WET AND 
THE GFS TURNING SHOWERY. NOT CONFIDENT ON ANY DETAILS BUT THE 
FORECAST WILL STAY MOIST INTO THE WEEKEND. BURKE

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE SKOKOMISH RIVER APPEARS TO BE BOTTOMING OUT NEAR 15 
FEET. IT WILL RISE AGAIN IN RESPONSE TO HEAVY RAIN TODAY AND 
TONIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE THE RIVER WILL GET CLOSE TO FLOOD STAGE LATE 
TODAY OR TONIGHT. FOR NOW THE FORECAST TAKES THE STAGE AT POTLATCH 
TO BETWEEN 15.5 AND 16 FEET. FLOOD STAGE IS 16.5 FEET. 

A BREAK IN THE RAIN WILL ALLOW THE SKOKOMISH TO RECEDE RIVER MONDAY. 
ANOTHER FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL BRING 2-3 INCHES OF RAIN 
TO THE SKOKOMISH BASIN. WILL NEED TO KEEP A WATCH ON THIS BUT THE 
CURRENT FORECAST KEEPS THE RIVER BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

OTHERWISE...FLOODING ON OTHER RIVERS IS UNLIKELY OVER THE NEXT 7 
DAYS. BURKE

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS 
AFTERNOON WILL VEER TO WESTERLY TONIGHT AS A VIGOROUS FRONTAL SYSTEM 
AND ITS UPPER TROUGH MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THE AIR MASS WILL BE 
MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP 
SUNDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER RIDGE.

AREAS OF RAIN ARE MOVING THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS AFTERNOON 
AS A VIGOROUS FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE 
SOUTHWEST. OFFSHORE NORTHERLY FLOW IS KEEPING THE LOWER LEVELS OF 
THE AIR MASS GENERALLY DRY FOR MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS 
WILL DETERIORATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE 
FRONTAL SYSTEM REACHES THE AREA...AND AS MOIST ONSHORE FLOW FOLLOWS 
THE FRONT. THERE COULD ALSO BE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE 
COAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL RISE DRAMATICALLY AS THE 
SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEAST 
ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS EVENING...WITH AREAS OF SUSTAINED 20 
TO 35 KT WINDS AND GUSTS 40 TO 55 KT. THERE SHOULD BE GRADUAL 
IMPROVEMENT SUNDAY.

KSEA...NORTHEAST WINDS 15 KT OR LESS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON... 
THEN SHIFT TO SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AROUND 6 PM AND RISE QUICKLY TO 
20-30 KT GUSTING 40 KT. THE WIND SHOULD PEAK AROUND 11 PM...AND WIND 
AS HIGH AS 35 KT GUSTING 50 KT IS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL EASE TO 
SOUTHWEST 10-16 KT SUNDAY.   MCDONNAL

&&

.MARINE...A 987 MB LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS 
THIS AFTERNOON AND MAKE LANDFALL NEAR TAHOLA AROUND 5 PM TODAY. THE 
LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTH PART OF WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS 
EVENING. WINDS WILL RISE RAPIDLY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE LOW...WITH 
GALES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST AS THE LOW 
MOVES INLAND AND LOCALLY REACHING 45 KT. GALES WILL DEVELOP OVER ALL 
INLAND WATERS ZONES TOO...WITH WESTERLIES IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN 
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA PROBABLY REACHING 45 KT. 

HIGH PRES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND WINDS WILL EASE. 
ANOTHER VIGOROUS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA 
LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THAT FEATURE HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF 
PRODUCING GALES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND SOME OF THE INLAND 
WATERS LIKE THE EAST ENTRANCE STRAIT AND NORTHERN INLAND WATERS. 

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WA...HIGH WIND WARNING COAST...SOUTHWEST INTERIOR...SEATTLE/TACOMA 
     METROPOLITAN AREA. 
     WIND ADVISORY NORTHWEST INTERIOR AND EAST PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS.
PZ...GALE WARNING ALL WATERS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH BAR CONDITIONS GRAYS HARBOR.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT 
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML









[ W WA | SW WA and W OR | SE WA and NE OR | NE WA and N ID ]

Southwestern Washington and Western Oregon


567 
FXUS66 KPQR 260047 AAA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
547 PM PDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NORTHEASTWARD INTO
WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
A SHOWERY AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT AND LAST INTO
SUNDAY. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN TO THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL WET PERIODS LIKELY TOWARDS THE END
OF NEXT WEEK. 

&&

UPDATED HEADLINES

.SHORT TERM...BUOY 89 AND BUOY 29 HAVE BOTTOMED OUT IN THE 983 TO 
984 MB RANGE AS A LOW PRESSURE MOVED BETWEEN THEM. THIS LOW PRESSURE 
IS CURRENTLY ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR GRAYS HARBOR WASHINGTON. 
PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE BEGINNING TO OPEN UP ACROSS THE REGION WITH 
WIDESPREAD 50 TO 65 MPH WINDS ACTIVELY OCCURRING ACROSS OUR COASTAL 
COMMUNITIES WITH UP TO 80 TO 90 MPH WIND GUSTS REPORTED AT THE MOST 
EXPOSED BEACHES AND HEADLANDS. WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 55 MPH 
HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY IN THE LAST TWO 
HOURS.

THERE HAVE BEEN A NUMBER OF REPORTS OF POWER LINES AND TREES DOWN
ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
WHETHER OR NOT 60 MPH GUSTS WILL SURFACE...BUT GIVEN THE IMPACTS OF
CURRENT WINDS...WILL KEEP HIGH WIND WARNINGS GOING EVEN IF CRITERIA
BY PURE WIND SPEEDS IS NOT MET. WITH THAT SAID...SOUTH TO NORTH
PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE QUICKLY INCREASING AND ARE CURRENTLY 20MB
BETWEEN KBOK-KAST...15MB BETWEEN KMFR-KAST...AND 4MB BETWEEN
KEUG-KPDX. RAP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE KEUG-KPDX GRADIENT WILL INCREASE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS TO NEAR 10MB. WHEN COMBINED WITH A
DESTABILIZING LOWER ATMOSPHERE...THIS SHOULD HELP HIGHER WINDS ALOFT
SURFACE ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. 
EXPECT BREEZY WEATHER FOR THE REGION WELL INTO THIS EVENING...BUT THE
HIGHEST WINDS SHOULD BE OVER BETWEEN 5 PM AND 7 PM FOR THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY.  

IN ADDITION...THE BENT BACK OCCLUSION MAY BRING A STRONG WEST TO
NORTHWEST SURGE OF WINDS TO THE SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST...WILLAPA
HILLS AND LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING SO HIGH WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR A FEW HOURS LONGER IN
THESE LOCATIONS VERSUS LOCATIONS FARTHER SOUTH. 

VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE REST OF THE 
FORECAST DUE TO THE FOCUS ON THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM. MUCH COOLER 
AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...LIKELY BRINGING 1 TO 
3 INCHES OF SNOW TO THE HIGH COUNTRY ABOVE 4500 TO 5000 
FEET...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER ABOVE 6000 FT. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN 
THE WET WEATHER MONDAY...A FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TO 
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LESS 
WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN WITH THE CURRENT SYSTEM...AND THE FRONT 
APPEARS AS THOUGH IT WILL BE TRANSIENT ENOUGH THAT FLOOD CONCERNS 
WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEAR MINIMAL. /NEUMAN  


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES 
TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE THIS WEEK.  SHORTWAVES IN THE 
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN 
ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THERE 
WILL BE A COUPLE WEAK FRONTS...ONE WHICH MOVES ONSHORE TUESDAY AND A 
SECOND THAT MOVES ONSHORE LATE THIS WEEK. THESE WILL BRING THE BEST 
CHANCE FOR MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS...WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED 
INTERMITTENTLY BEHIND THE FIRST FRONT ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE 
SECOND FRONT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AROUND FRIDAY. -MCCOY


&&


.AVIATION...A DEEP LOW PRES IS ABOUT 50 MILES OFF THE OREGON
COAST WILL PUSH INLAND OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON BY 5 PM TODAY.
STRONG S TO SW WINDS THROUGH 03Z. MOSTLY VFR...BUT WILL HAVE
POCKETS OF MVFR UNDER SHOWERS. EXPECT ISOLATED TSTMS...MAINLY FROM
COAST RANGE AND WESTWARD. CONDITIONS RELAX AFTER 03Z...WITH
WIDESPREAD LOW VFR AND MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING. MOSTLY VFR...BUT WILL HAVE OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS AT TIMES.
GUSTY S WINDS WITH GUSTS 35 TO 45 KT CONTINUE UNTIL 02Z...THEN
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY RELAX.			       ROCKEY.


&&


.MARINE...A 983 MB LOW ABOUT 50 MILES WEST OF ASTORIA WILL MOVE
ONSHORE JUST NORTH OF WILLAPA BAY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. STORM
WARNING IN EFFECT...WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. WINDS WILL DROP OFF AFTER
6 PM...WITH GALES THROUGH EVENING. WINDS EASE FURTHER OVERNIGHT.

WIND GENERATED SEAS HAVE BUILD RAPIDLY. SEAS PEAKED AT 30 FT AT
BUOY 50 AROUND NOON...AND ARE STILL 25 TO 30 FT ON OREGON WATERS
WITH SEAS 20 TO 25 FT FURTHER N. AS WINDS DROP OFF...SEAS WILL
RELAX. SEAS LIKELY TO DROP BACK TO AROUND 15 FT AROUND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...AND DOWN A BIT FURTHER FOR SUN.		ROCKEY.


&&


.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM TODAY FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL 
       WILLAMETTE VALLEY...AND NORTH COAST RANGE. 
     
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM TODAY FOR LOWER COLUMBIA.     
 

WA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM TODAY FOR CLARK COUNTY.
     
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR I-5 
	  CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY...THE WILLAPA HILLS AND 
	  THE SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM TODAY ON ALL COASTAL WATERS. 

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR CONDITIONS
	 THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. 

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA    
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND	
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON 
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS 
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&

[ W WA | SW WA and W OR | SE WA and NE OR | NE WA and N ID ]

Southeastern Washington and Northeastern Oregon


894 
FXUS66 KPDT 252247 CCA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
248 PM PDT SAT OCT 25 2014

CORRECTED WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES SECTION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE 
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO APPROACH WESTERN WASHINGTON AT THE MOMENT. THIS 
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST TO SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA 
TONIGHT, THEN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. 
LOCALLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENTS REMAIN OVER CENTRAL OREGON AND EAST 
CENTRAL OREGON, AS WELL AS THE SOUTH ENDS OF THE GRANDE RONDE AND 
WALLOWA VALLEYS. WINDS HAVE BEEN WELL WITHIN THE 25 TO 35 MPH 
SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH IN CENTRAL OREGON AND AT THE 
SOUTH END OF THE WALLOWA VALLEY. THE SOUTH END OF THE GRANDE RONDE 
VALLEY HAS NOT DONE AS WELL, BUT MAY STILL PICK UP WITH THE APPROACH 
THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. THUS WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT 
ADVISORIES IN CENTRAL OREGON AND IN THE GRANDE RONDE AND WALLOWA 
VALLEYS. STILL EXPECT A BURST OF STRONG WINDS WITH THE PASSAGE OF 
THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN THIS EVENING. ALSO 
GRADIENTS FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ARE STILL EXPECTED 
TO RESULT IN OFF AND ON STRONG WINDS. THUS WILL CONTINUE THE WIND 
ADVISORIES IN THE LOWER BASIN AND FOOTHILLS. HAVE ALSO ADDED 
ADVISORIES FOR NORTH-CENTRAL OREGON AND SIMCOE HIGHLANDS. WILL SEE 
SHOWERS TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WILL MENTION 
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM TO THE FOOTHILLS AND BLUE 
MOUNTAINS IN UMATILLA, WALLA WALLA AND COLUMBIA COUNTIES DUE TO 
POTENTIAL OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT OF THE SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT. 
MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP VARYING CHANCE OF SHOWER GOING OVER THE 
AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THESE SHOWERS WILL DECREASE SUNDAY 
NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN BETWEEN 4500 AND 
5500 FEET MSL SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THUS SOME LIGHT, LOCALIZED 
SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ABOVE THESE LEVELS. 90 

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GFS AND EC IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT. A WET BUT MILD PATTERN WILL PREVAIL. A WARM FRONT WITH 
ABUNDANT PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL HIT THE CASCADES LATE MONDAY AND 
SPREAD INTO THE REST OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS 
SYSTEM WILL INCLUDE SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE ANA. FOR 
WEDNESDAY...THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL LIMIT RAIN TO MAINLY THE CASCADES 
AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE MORE THAN 10 
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST SPOTS ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT WITH THE 
CLOUD COVER. A FEW MOUNTAIN VALLEY AREAS WILL SEE GUSTY WINDS ON 
TUESDAY. 

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH AN UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND AN APPROACHING 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEAR 130 WEST OVER THE PACIFIC. OUT AHEAD OF THIS 
FEATURE EXPECT A MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN 
ALONG THE CASCADES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE TO THE REST OF THE AREA AS A 
WEAK WARM FRONTAL FEATURE MOVES THROUGH. HEADING INTO FRIDAY AND 
SATURDAY THE 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS HANDLE THE APPROACHING TROUGH 
DIFFERENTLY...THE ECMWF WOULD BRING PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA 
AS THE TROUGH STAYS PROGRESSIVE...WHILE THE GFS DEVELOPS A CLOSED 
500MB LOW AND SLOWS THE TROUGH DOWN...THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST THE 
PRECIPITATION HOLDS OFF UNTIL AFTER AT LEAST 18Z SATURDAY. SINCE 
THIS IS DAYS 5-7 DECIDED TO TAKE A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS TO 
ACCOUNT FOR THESE DIFFERENCES. EITHER WAY AS THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
EVENTUALLY MOVES INTO THE REGION EXPECT SNOW LEVELS TO FALL...WITH 
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATING 5350-5400M 1000-500MB THICKNESSES 
ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE SATURDAY INTO NEXT SUNDAY. OVERALL 
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. 77

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WINDS G35-45KT THROUGH 
08Z.  STRONG SURFACE LOW WEST OF KAST WILL PROVIDE TIGHT PRESSURE 
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 08Z.   LOW IS PROGGED TO TRACK NE 
INTO BC BY 08Z WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT THEN WEAKENING.  A COLD FRONT 
TRAILING FROM THE LOW WILL PROVIDE THE LIFT FOR -SHRA.  TS POSSIBLE 
VCTY KALW AND KPDT TIL 06Z...BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE IN TAF DUE TO LOW 
CONFIDENCE. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  46  58  40  57 /  40  30  20  10 
ALW  49  58  43  58 /  40  30  20  10 
PSC  49  63  40  58 /  30  20  10  10 
YKM  42  58  35  53 /  50  20  10  10 
HRI  48  62  38  58 /  30  20  10  10 
ELN  44  57  34  53 /  50  20  10  10 
RDM  37  54  27  54 /  50  20  20  10 
LGD  45  53  38  52 /  40  40  30  10 
GCD  42  54  34  52 /  40  30  20  10 
DLS  47  60  41  58 /  60  30  20  20 

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT SUNDAY ORZ044-507-508.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING ORZ511.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PDT SUNDAY ORZ510.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR LADD AND PYLES 
     CANYONS IN THE ORZ049.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR THE SOUTH END 
     OF THE WALLOWA VALLEY.

WA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT SUNDAY WAZ028-029.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PDT SUNDAY WAZ521.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/79/77/79





[ W WA | SW WA and W OR | SE WA and NE OR | NE WA and N ID ]

Northeastern Washington and Northern Idaho


971 
FXUS66 KOTX 252152
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
251 PM PDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Tonight into Sunday will be quite windy as a strong low pressure
system brings rain and gusty conditions to the Inland Northwest.
The weather will be relatively quiet on Monday before a moisture
laden storm system brings more widespread rain on Tuesday.
A mild autumn pattern is expected to return Wednesday and Thursday
with the potential of wet weather returning Friday into the
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

...Windy conditions tonight and Sunday across central and 
southeast Washington...

Tonight and Sunday: A strong surface low lies off the Washington
coast is running a little deeper than the models indicate with
gusty southerly winds already across western Washington. This low
will lift northeastward and arrive in BC overnight. As it does, it
will push a cold front across the Cascades this evening and into
north Idaho by early Sunday morning. Prefrontal showers are
already spreading across the Cascades and into northern mountains.
There is a small chance of embedded thunderstorms across the
northern mountains late this afternoon or early evening especially
on the backside of the cloud shield moving through the region.
Showers will steadily increase with the arrival of the frontal
with up to a 0.10" possible in the lowlands and mountains seeing
about a 0.25". Although gusty southerly winds have developed
across the Blue mountains and Camas Prairie this afternoon with
good mixing, the main wind event will arrive this evening and
overnight. The MM5 and HRRR has picked up a quicker onset of the
gusty winds this evening especially across the southeast
Washington, most likely due to the deeper surface low and its
track. Have opted to adjust the wind advisory and show an earlier
onset time with the gusty winds across the upper Garfield/Asotin
counties and southern Whitman, while keeping the current area
going for the rest of the Wind Advisory. Will also bump wind
speeds in the area which may be prolonged especially from 9 pm to
2 am overnight in this area. Winds look to taper off slightly
early Sunday morning and loose some of the gustiness, but daytime
mixing will bring a return of gusty southwest to west winds by
midday Sunday. Expect overnight lows to remain mild due to the
wind, cloud cover and precipitation. By Sunday, daytime highs will
be running 2 to 10 degrees cooler than today. /rfox. 

Sunday Night and Monday: Winds will subside Sunday evening as low
pressure moves into the Canadian Prairies. Cool/unstable
northwesterly flow behind the exiting storm system will bring a
good chance of accumulating snow to the Clearwater mountains and
the ridges above 4500 feet in southern Shoshone county Sunday
night into Monday morning. Lookout Pass may have some slushy
accumulations Sunday night at 4700 feet. Any accumulations will
probably short-lived as temperatures warm into the 30s Monday.

Tuesday and Wednesday: A moisture laden storm system will likely
bring the Pacific Northwest another round of widespread rainfall
Tuesday into Tuesday night. This system is currently organizing
over the central Pacific and is ingesting Hurricane Ana. This may
sound ominous, but by the time this storm arrives on Tuesday it
won't be a particularly extraordinary system for this time of
year. Western Washington, the Cascades, and mountains of north
Idaho stand to get moderate rain. However, the 12-24 hour
duration of Tuesday's storm is pretty typical of mid autumn storm
systems and does not appear to pose much of a flood concern at
this time. It appears that our short-term wind/rain storm tonight
into Sunday will be a more impactful storm than Tuesday's system
with Ana's moisture contribution.

There is good agreement between the 12z runs of the GFS, ECMWF and
ensembles that a shortwave ridge will build over the Inland
northwest Wednesday into Thursday. At this time, it appears that
mountain showers will linger into Wednesday with the best shot of
measurable rain in the morning. /GKoch

Thursday through Saturday night: Some uncertainty exists during
the far extended portion of the forecast. Through Thursday,
confidence is much higher, but trails off from there. A warm front
will lift north on Thursday as fairly deep as a digging trough off
the Pacific coast enhances southerly flow over the Inland
Northwest. This will likely trigger some showers as it lifts
north. What happens afterwards will be key, especially for those
who have outdoor plans on Friday night. How much the trough digs
before coming inland will be key, as a slower timing will keep
much of Friday dry, whereas a faster movement inland will be
cooler and more showery. Tried to cut the solutions down the
middle, which would keep higher chances over the Cascades while
chances trail downward as you move east. 

It does look like Thursday's high temperatures will be 10+ degrees
above late, late October highs. Once the cold front passes,
temperatures will once again fall back to where they should be.
This also means snow levels will fall as well, which could reach
some of the pass levels. ty

&&

.AVIATION...
18z TAFs: A shield of high clouds will push east as the frontal
boundary pushes eastward. A few showers will continue to move
across the northern Cascades toward the Okanogan Highlands. Some
prefrontal convection may develop in north Idaho by mid afternoon
with an embedded thunderstorm possible, but the main band of
showers will increase over the Cascades after 22z and push
eastward through the evening. Expect areas of MVFR with the rain.
Winds will veer from east to south with an increase in gustiness
into the evening. The rain should taper off late evening and
overnight as south to southwest winds get stronger with gusts of
30-40kt possible. The winds should decrease slightly by early
Sunday morning. /rfox



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        44  53  35  50  39  49 /  70  20  20   0  20  80 
Coeur d'Alene  43  52  34  48  36  49 /  70  40  30  10  20  80 
Pullman        43  53  35  52  39  51 /  60  30  30  10  20  70 
Lewiston       48  59  40  55  40  56 /  60  30  30  10  10  50 
Colville       44  53  32  52  38  48 /  80  30  10   0  30  80 
Sandpoint      42  49  33  48  34  47 / 100  90  20  10  20  80 
Kellogg        42  45  34  45  33  43 /  90  50  50  20  20  80 
Moses Lake     45  60  33  55  42  54 /  50  10   0   0  50  60 
Wenatchee      45  59  39  55  43  54 /  50  10   0   0  50  60 
Omak           42  56  33  52  39  50 /  60  20   0   0  50  60 

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Wind Advisory until 3 PM PDT Sunday for Lower Garfield and 
     Asotin Counties-Washington Palouse.

     Wind Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 3 PM PDT Sunday for 
     Spokane Area-Upper Columbia Basin.

&&

$$


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