[ W WA | SW WA and W OR | SE WA and NE OR | NE WA and N ID ]

Western Washington


652 
FXUS66 KSEW 261534
GPHAFD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
830 AM PDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION, BRINGING SUNNY WARMER WEATHER TO WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY
AND MONDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, ONSHORE
FLOW AT LOW LEVELS, AND TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AS IT MOVES 
ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY, WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS RISING TO
AROUND 5820 METERS. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY, WITH ONLY
A VERY WEAK ONSHORE COMPONENT THIS AFTERNOON. MORNING STRATUS IS
LIMITED TO THE COAST (PIC1) WITH SUNNY SKIES OTHERWISE. IT WILL BE
A WARMER TODAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. SOME
PARTS OF THE SOUTH INTERIOR WILL GET INTO THE MID 80S.

THE RIDGE WILL BUILD FURTHER AS IT MOVES INTO THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS
TONIGHT AND MONDAY, AND THE FLOW ALOFT OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON
WILL BACK TO SOUTHWEST AS A VERY WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE REACHES THE
AREA. THE SHORTWAVE COULD TRIGGER ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS, BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. THE UPPER HEIGHTS WILL CHANGE LITTLE, AND THE
LOWER PART OF THE AIR MASS WILL WARM SLIGHTLY. HIGHS WILL BE
AROUND 1 TO 3 DEGREES HIGHER INLAND, AND 1 TO 3 DEGREES LOWER AT
THE COAST AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES THERE DURING THE DAY.

THE INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE
SHOULD DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER ON THE COAST, AND MARINE STRATUS
COULD MOVE INTO THE LOWER CHEHALIS VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE SOUTH
INTERIOR AND SOUTH PUGET SOUND REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. THE MORNING CLOUDS SHOULD BURN OFF THOUGH FOR
SUNNY SKIES AND JUST SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER. 

.LONG TERM...MODELS AGREE THAT THE UPPER RIDGE POSITION WILL
REMAIN OVER THE ROCKIES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON. THE 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL BE AROUND 5820 METERS, GIVE OR
TAKE, WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW. ASIDE FROM
SOME LATE NIGHT AND MORNING MARINE STRATUS, MAINLY AT THE COAST,
THE DAYS SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL, MAINLY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. 

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TODAY AND
THEN OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON TONIGHT (PIC10) WITH WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT BECOMING SOUTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE, ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND LOWER PRESSURE INLAND. THE AIR MASS
IS DRY AND STABLE. AREAS OF STRATUS AT THE COAST WILL BURN OFF LATE
THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, SKIES WILL BE CLEAR.

KSEA...CLEAR. NORTHERLY WIND 7-14 KNOTS. SCHNEIDER/13

&&

.MARINE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL (PIC11) FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND LOWER PRESSURE INLAND. THERE WILL BE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEST WINDS IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT
MOST EVENINGS. ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AND GALES ARE POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY EVENING. THERE WILL ALSO
BE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHWEST WINDS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AT
TIMES THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SCHNEIDER/13

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM PDT MONDAY 
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 
     TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT 
     GRENVILLE OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO 
     CAPE SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT 
     GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM PDT MONDAY 
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM PDT MONDAY 
     FOR CENTRAL U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-EAST 
     ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
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[ W WA | SW WA and W OR | SE WA and NE OR | NE WA and N ID ]

Southwestern Washington and Western Oregon


558 
FXUS66 KPQR 261659
AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Portland OR 
957 AM PDT Sun Jun 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Building high pressure over the region will bring
abundant sunshine over the next several days. Mild southwest flow
aloft will ensure much more summer-like temperatures, especially
inland. This pattern will continue well into this week. Only
exception will be a weak upper level disturbance that may trigger a
thunderstorm or two over the Cascades later Monday afternoon.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)...No changes. Previous
discussion follows. No changes in overall
forecasts and trends. Classic early summer pattern will dominate SW
Washington and NW Oregon the next few days, with southwesterly flow
aloft. Strong high pressure is expected to remain offshore the next
several days, with thermal low pressure over California and east of
the Cascades. This will maintain low level northerly flow across
region today, with inland highs well into the 80s, while coastal
areas will be in upper 60s to lower 70s.

A weak upper level disturbance near 40N/136W is expected to continue
NE the next 24-48 hours, moving into the Olympic Peninsula and
Vancouver Island sometime Monday. Given the SW flow aloft and very
modest pocket of cool air aloft, gut feeling is that thunder will be
limited to BC and the WA Cascades Mt Rainier northward. Since the
existing forecast carries a slight chance of thunder along the
Cascade crest, decided to leave it in for the time being...future
shifts can re-assess.  

The marine layer will likely deepen some Monday...with low clouds
increasing along the coast and possibly spreading up the Columbia as
far as Kelso Mon morning. Slightly stronger onshore pressure
gradients behind the upper disturbance could allow low cloudiness to
be a bit more widespread into the Willamette Valley Tue morning, as
the 00z NAM BL RH suggests. Any low cloudiness would clear back to
the coast by midday Mon/Tue...though the enhanced marine influence
those days will probably cool temps a couple degrees from Sunday's
highs.							   Weagle
 
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday Night)...No changes.
Previous discussion follows. Long term period
will be an extension of the short term with warm and dry weather
persisting. GFS has the next system arriving by next weekend, while
the ECMWF keeps our area clear and warm into next week. Either way,
summer pattern has arrived with above normal temperatures and below
normal precip through at least Friday.	/Bentley

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions through 18z Monday with abundant
sunshine across most of the region today. Notable exception is
some lingering IFR stratus in the coastal river valleys and just
offshore along the coast. This will retreat and improve by late
morning. Otherwise, only concern is for gusty northerly winds
returning to the coastal terminals this afternoon and evening.
Expect gusts to 25 kt with occasional 30 kt gusts. IFR stratus may
return to the coastal areas tonight after around 09z. 

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR through 18z Monday. Mostly clear skies
with light NW surface wind, becoming a little breezy this
afternoon.	  /Cullen

&&

.MARINE...High pressure over the waters combined with a thermal
low over northern California building north along the southern
Oregon Coast is maintaining gusty northerly winds over the waters.
Small craft advisories for winds continue today for the waters.
Winds ease a little on Monday due to a weak disturbance that
moves through early Monday. Thermal trough strengthens again up
the coast Tuesday and Wednesday, strengthening the surface
pressure gradient and bringing a return of gusty northerly winds.

Seas currently around 5 to 7 ft and will remain in this range
through midweek. Conditions dominated by short period wind driven
seas, which will persist for the next few days as guidance
indicates only a few small longer period swells, on the order of
1 to 3 feet, enter the waters.	    /Cullen

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisories for winds and hazardous seas until 5
     AM PDT Monday for Waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence
     OR from 10 to 60 nm.

     Small Craft Advisories for winds and hazardous seas from
     noon today to 10 PM PDT this evening for Coastal Waters
     from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR out 10 nm.


&&


$$

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This discussion is for Northwest Oregon and Southwest Washington
from the Cascade crest to 60 nautical miles offshore. The area is
commonly referred to as the forecast area.

[ W WA | SW WA and W OR | SE WA and NE OR | NE WA and N ID ]

Southeastern Washington and Northeastern Oregon


637 
FXUS66 KPDT 261713 AAA
AFDPDT

Area Forecast Discussion...Update
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
1012 AM PDT SUN JUN 26 2016

Updated Aviation Discussion

.SHORT TERM...Today and tonight...Building ridge of high pressure
will dominate the weather providing clear skies and warm
temperatures. No significant changes made in the morning forecast
update. 

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...VFR conditions will continue at all TAFS
sites for the next 24 hours. Skies will remain clear except for FEW-
SCT cirrus between 25-30K FT AGL this afternoon...mainly over
Washington. There could also be a FEW CU developing later this
afternoon around 8-10K FT AGL along the East Slopes of the
Washington Cascades and N. Blue Mtns INVOF KYKM and KALW. After
27/12-15z additional mid level moisture moves into the area which
could again create FEW-SCT clouds at some terminals. North to
northeast winds will reach 10-15 KTs this afternoon and early
evening at KPDT...KBDN and KRDM. Otherwise Winds will generally be
light (AOB 10 KTs), diurnal and terrain driven through the period. 77

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 300 AM PDT SUN JUN 26 2016/ 

SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday...An upper ridge will continue
to build over the region during the short term period. This will
result in a warming trend each day through Tuesday. Maximum
temperatures are expected to be in the 80s to around 90 in the lower
elevations with 70s to near 80 in the mountains today. Then by
Tuesday maximum temperatures will be in the mid to upper 90s...with
mainly 80s in the mountains. There will be a weak disturbance that
will move over the top of the ridge on Monday. This disturbance may
cause a few isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms in the
northeast mountains and along the Cascade east slopes. Thunderstorms
may continue late into the night as there will be some elevated
instability to keep them going after sunset. Winds through the
period will be light and generally less than 15 Kts. 88

LONG TERM...Tuesday night through Saturday night...A long wave
mid/upper level ridge of high pressure will remain parked over the
Rockies thus putting the interior Pacific Northwest on the western
flank of the ridge. This upper level pressure pattern will place a
southwest flow aloft across the forecast area, which will allow a
modest influx of mid level moisture to enter the region from
offshore waters Wednesday through Saturday. Daytime surface heating
over the mountains of northeast Oregon will give a slight chance of
thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon/evening from the northern Blue
Mountains of Oregon to Idaho. The greatest instability and moisture
will occur on Thursday and Friday for a slight chance of
afternoon/evening thunderstorms in the Blue Mountains of Washington
and Oregon to Idaho. High temperatures through Friday will be in the
upper 80s to mid 90s each day at lower elevations, or around 8-15
degrees above normal, and in the upper 60s to mid 80s in the
mountains. Saturday a weak mid/upper level trough will swing through
the region and usher in a marine push that will bring in a tad
cooler airmass for high temperatures on Saturday in the mid 80s to
lower 90s, upper 60s to mid 80s in the mountains.  Polan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  88  58  93  63 /   0   0   0   0 
ALW  89  61  93  67 /   0   0   0  10 
PSC  90  58  95  62 /   0   0   0   0 
YKM  89  57  95  62 /   0   0   0   0 
HRI  90  57  94  64 /   0   0   0   0 
ELN  86  55  91  61 /   0   0   0   0 
RDM  88  51  88  53 /   0   0   0   0 
LGD  85  50  89  57 /   0   0  10  20 
GCD  89  53  91  56 /   0   0   0  10 
DLS  93  61  95  65 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.PDT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OR...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$

91/77/77

[ W WA | SW WA and W OR | SE WA and NE OR | NE WA and N ID ]

Northeastern Washington and Northern Idaho


850 
FXUS66 KOTX 261758
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1058 AM PDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
The upcoming week be much warmer with summer-like conditions.
Starting Monday, afternoon temperatures will be in the upper 80s
to mid 90s through at least Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Monday night...A weak wave over SE British Columbia will 
pull away from the region this morning and be replaced by a short
wave ridge this afternoon. The net result will be mostly clear
skies with just flat cumulus over the mountains. On Monday the
ridge axis moves east while a short wave currently off the Oregon
coast near 135W reaches the WA Cascades Monday afternoon. Model
remain consistent of uncapped CAPE of 600-1200 J/KG which should
allow isolated thunderstorms to develop. A dry low level air mass
will result in gusty winds being the main threat. As the wave
continues to move east Monday evening could see isolated
thunderstorms develop over the Okanogan Highlands. The other area
where thunderstorms may develop is from the Blue Mountains into
the Central Panhandle Mountains where a ribbon of elevated
instability tracks across this area Monday night. These would be
the high based variety with little rain if they develop. 

850mb temperatures warm to near 17C today and then around 21C on
Monday. This will push valley highs primarily in the low to mid
80s today...and upper 80s to lower 90s on Monday. JW

Tuesday through Friday: Not many changes have been made to the
forecast for Tuesday through Friday. Temperatures in a few areas
have been modified a degree or two, but the overall the weather
models continue to forecast a warm high pressure ridge through
Friday. 

*Temperatures TUE-FRI: Afternoon temperatures will climb into the
 upper 80s to mid 90s for many of our cities this week. At this
 time, it looks like Friday may be the hottest day of the week.
 There is general agreement between the evening model runs that
 our 500mb ridge will weaken on Saturday allowing a weak cold
 frontal passage by the weekend. The increased mixing ahead of the
 front will have the potential to push temperatures well into the
 90s in the Columbia Basin Friday afternoon with low to mid 90s
 possible for the Spokane area.

*Winds TUE-FRI: Low pressure anchored over the Gulf of Alaska will
 send a series of shortwaves into the Pacific Northwest this week.
 Timing of these minor waves may be subject to change, but there
 has been decent agreement that one of these weak waves will
 arrive on Wednesday. We will be monitoring the potential for
 breezy evening winds through the Cascade gaps (Kittitas Valley,
 Wenatchee/Chelan areas) Wednesday evening. The combination of
 breezy evening winds, hot temperatures, and low relative humidity
 may raise wildfire concerns. A more significant trough/cold front
 in the Friday/Saturday time frame may have the potential to
 produce more widespread breezy conditions into the Columbia Basin
 as well as along the East Slopes. /GKoch

Saturday and Sunday: By Saturday the Euro and GFS both suggest the
upper ridge will be tempered by an approaching wave associated
with an upper low over north/central Alberta. The Euro would bring
a deeper trough through the region, but this solution is
inconsistent with its depictions over the past few days, so the
more likely scenario is the marginal GFS which would give us a
glancing blow with little to no precipitation. High temperatures,
however, will decline into the mid 80s once more. Finally, winds
on Sunday could be an issue as the surface pressure gradient
tightens and winds over the Palouse and near the Cascade gaps will
be gusty. /williams

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: High pressure will strengthen over the forecast area
delivering VFR skies and light winds. Flat cumulus is expected
over the mountains this afternoon...dissipating in the evening
with the loss of daytime heating.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        81  58  89  62  90  63 /   0   0  10  10   0   0 
Coeur d'Alene  81  55  90  58  89  59 /   0   0  10  10  10   0 
Pullman        80  51  88  54  88  53 /   0   0  10  10  10   0 
Lewiston       88  59  97  64  95  64 /   0   0  10  20  10   0 
Colville       84  52  90  55  93  55 /   0   0  10  10  10   0 
Sandpoint      78  50  85  53  86  53 /   0   0  10  10  10  10 
Kellogg        78  51  88  54  88  55 /   0   0  10  10  10  10 
Moses Lake     87  58  94  61  95  61 /   0   0  10  10   0   0 
Wenatchee      86  63  92  67  94  66 /   0   0  10  10   0   0 
Omak           85  58  91  61  94  62 /   0   0  10  10   0   0 

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$

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