[ W WA | SW WA and W OR | SE WA and NE OR | NE WA and N ID ]

Western Washington


155 
FXUS66 KSEW 170647
AFDSEW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
1047 PM PST Mon Jan 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A frontal system over the offshore waters will move
into Western Washington Tuesday morning and will weaken as it
encounters a strong ridge of high pressure to the east. A wetter
and warmer frontal system will move through the region later
Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday bringing wet and windy
conditions to the area along with freezing rain in the passes. A
cool upper level trough will settle over the area from the second
half of the week into next weekend bringing cool and showery
weather along with breezy to locally windy conditions at times.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Front offshore will come through the area in two pieces, the
first weakening piece will move through the area midday Tuesday
bringing precipitation, windy conditions over the north interior
and along the coast, and some mountain snow to the Cascades above
3500 to 5000 feet. 

More significantly, the second wave on the front, now centered
about 35N 150W, will move northeast across the area Tuesday night
and Wednesday. This second wave will contain subtropical moisture
originating around Hawaii, and will be accompanied by southwest
winds 50 to 65 knot at 5000 feet that will enhance orographic flow
over the southwestern Olympic mountains and the Cascades of
Whatcom and Skagit counties. The strong and moist flow will give
snow levels over 7000 feet, heavy rain with 4-7 inches in the
Olympics and 2-4 inches in the North Cascades and windy
conditions, especially along the coast and north interior.

Cold air remains deep over Eastern Washington, so easterly flow
in the passes later Tuesday into Wednesday will result in
significant accumulations of Freezing rain. At this time it
appears that the passes will see a total of a quarter (0.25) to a
half (0.5) inch of ice accumulations on Tuesday, mainly in
Snoqualmie Pass. The precipitation will mostly fall as snow in
Stevens Pass, where up to 2 feet of snow is expected during the
the 36-hour period ending at 4 PM Wednesday. A Winter Storm
Warning remains in effect for the Cascades of Snohomish and King
Counties for this reason.

The Winter Storm Warning for the Cascades of Pierce and Lewis
Counties was replaced with a Freezing Rain Advisory. Most
elevations will see rain, with freezing rain expected mainly in
those areas prone to east wind (such as White Pass) and below the
5000 foot level.

A Wind Advisory is in effect for the coastal zones and the north
interior zones north of Everett to the Canadian Border from
midnight tonight through Wednesday. Winds will be 25 to 35 mph
with gusts to 50 mph and will likely come in two bursts, one with
each passing front, late tonight and Tuesday morning then again
Tuesday night through Wednesday.

Once the second wave passes late Wednesday, a cool and showery
pattern will develop. Temperatures will return to normal from the
balmy ones we see later Tuesday and Wednesday. Albrecht/05

.LONG TERM from the previous discussion...
Friday through next Monday will generally see cool and showery
conditions prevail. More significant model differences start to
take place Saturday night and Sunday with the GFS taking a
developing low eastward in a strong jet toward southern California
and the ECMWF and Canadian solutions taking the low into the
Washington offshore waters. With the uncertainty in the details of
the solutions, a model blend was used for pops and temperatures.
Generally, we expect temperatures to gradually drop below average
by 3-4 degrees by the end of the period and shower chances to
gradually decrease. Albrecht

&&

.AVIATION...A weakening frontal system will move onshore Tuesday
morning with southwest flow aloft. A stronger front will reach the
area late in the day Tuesday. The air mass is stable with mid and
high level moisture. The low levels will become moist Tuesday
morning and remain moist through the day.

KSEA...Mid clouds tonight. Low clouds and rain will develop
Tuesday morning. Ceilings will likely remain VFR most of the day
however. South wind 5-10 knots will increase to 10-15 knots
Tuesday. Schneider

&&

.MARINE...A series of fronts will move through the waters this
week. Gale force winds should develop over the Coastal Waters,
entrances to the Strait, and Northern Inland waters later tonight
or Tuesday morning and then continue off and on through Wednesday
as a couple of frontal systems move through. There will be a bit
of a lull in between weather systems Thursday, then additional
fronts will affect the waters Friday and Saturday. Schneider

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A warm front will move through Western Washington Tuesday
morning. A second front will bring heavier rainfall with high snow
levels 7000-8000. A 24 hour period of strong southwest flow aloft
(50 to 65 kt at 5000 feet), along with a plume of moisture
originating around Hawaii, will result in heavy precipitation on
the southwest facing Olympics and in the North Cascades around Mt
Baker. Peak 24 hour precipitation amounts ending 4 AM Wednesday
in the Olympics will be 4 to 7 inches. 2 to 4 inch rainfall
amounts is expected in the north Cascades during the same time
frame. 

At this time, it appears that the rivers most likely to flood are
the Skokomish in Mason County and possibly the Nooksack in Whatcom
County. Other rivers such as the Elwha and Satsop may approach
flood stage at some point late Tuesday night or Wednesday. The GFS
and University of Washington WRF models continue to be on the high
side of forecast precipitation amounts. Albrecht

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Freezing Rain Advisory until noon PST Tuesday for Cascades of 
     Pierce and Lewis Counties.

     Winter Storm Warning from 6 AM Tuesday to 6 PM PST Wednesday for 
     Cascades of Snohomish and King Counties.

     Flood Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday evening for 
     Admiralty Inlet Area-Cascades of Whatcom and Skagit Counties-
     Central Coast-Eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca-Hood Canal Area-
     Lower Chehalis Valley Area-North Coast-Olympics-Western 
     Strait of Juan De Fuca-Western Whatcom County.

     Winter Weather Advisory until noon PST Tuesday for Cascades of 
     Whatcom and Skagit Counties.

     Wind Advisory until 3 PM PST Wednesday for Admiralty Inlet Area-
     Central Coast-North Coast-San Juan County-Western Skagit 
     County-Western Whatcom County.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory for rough bar until 2 AM PST Wednesday for 
     Grays Harbor Bar.

     Gale Warning until 2 AM PST Wednesday for Admiralty Inlet-Coastal 
     Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal 
     Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal 
     Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-
     Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-
     Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 
     60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 
     Out 10 Nm-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-
     Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands-West 
     Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM PST Wednesday for Central U.S. 
     Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Tuesday to 6 AM PST Wednesday for 
     Puget Sound and Hood Canal.

&&

$$

www.weather.gov/seattle

An illustrated version of this forecast discussion can be seen at
www.weather.gov/seattle/gafd/latest_webafd.html

[ W WA | SW WA and W OR | SE WA and NE OR | NE WA and N ID ]

Southwestern Washington and Western Oregon


391 
FXUS66 KPQR 170542
AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Portland Oregon
941 PM PST Mon Jan 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Brisk east winds continue to supply the Willamette Valley
with very cold Columbia Basin air. Snow cover remains several inches
deep in the Portland metro area and vicinity, adding
to the persistence of the cold air. The low-level cold air will come
into play as a very moist Pacific frontal system spreads rain across
the forecast area Tuesday and Wednesday. This will likely result in a
major ice storm in the west and central Columbia Gorge, with
significant icing also likely Tuesday for much of the Portland and
Vancouver metro areas. Icing is also likely in some Coast
Range and Cascade valleys, and may extend as far south as Salem. This
system is expected to bring very windy conditions to the coast and
higher terrain in the Coast Range. Occasionally heavy rain may also
cause some flooding, especially in areas impacted by last week's
snowstorm. A return to colder weather is expected by the end of the
week, with additional systems bringing the threat of snow again at
least down into the hills.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday...The main update to the fcst
this evening was to upgrade the Freezing Rain Advisory for the
Portland/Vancouver metro areas to an Ice Storm Warning. The fcst
models continue to suggest that strong southerly winds aloft will
erode the cold air at the surface by the afternoon in the metro area.
However, as anyone who has paid any attention to the weather this
winter could tell you, the models notoriously scour out the cold air
too quickly in an offshore flow event. In this case, the models seem
to be having a particularly difficult time handling the strength of
the Columbia basin cold pool and surface high and the easterly
gradient through the gorge. The past few days, the models have been
showing the showing the surface high and gradient weakening, with
observations stubbornly refusing to go in this direction. Think that
the models are again overdoing the weakening of the cold pool and the
easterly gradient during the day tomorrow. Have delayed the
transition from rain to freezing rain until late in the afternoon for
most of the metro area, and kept freezing rain for eastern portions
of the metro area well into tomorrow night. The eastern metro looks
likely to see significant ice accumulations Confidence in timing is
still not high, and wouldn't be surprised to see freezing rain
continue through a good portion of the metro into tomorrow evening,
which could mean a major ice event for portions of downtown Portland
and Vancouver. 

The fcst models seem to be in agreement that there will be a period
of light precipitation early tomorrow morning that likely falls as
freezing rain for most of the lowlands. Surface temps for most are
already below freezing, so confidence is precip type to start is
high. It looks like there will then be a break during the late
morning and early afternoon before a period of much heavier
precipitation arrives during the late afternoon and evening. 

Previous short term forecast from 326 PM remains unchanged...Here we
go again. Ice instead of snow this time.  Easterly flow coming out of
the gorge will feed sub freezing air into the interior lowlands while
snow covered valleys in the Cascades and coast range have remained
cold under temperature inversions. A warm and moist system will
overrun this cold air to generate freezing rain under the shallow
temperature inversion.	Areas impacted will be a majority of the
Willamette Valley and interior lowland zones in southwest Washington,
as well as the deeper valleys of the coast range and Cascade
foothills. Greatest impacts will be in the west and central Gorge and
Upper Hood River Valley where around an inch and possibly 1.5" to 2"
inches ice Tuesday and Wednesday.  

Model timing of precipitation is a bit slower than 24 hours ago and
this has been a trend in the past few days. The first slug of
moisture is carried toward Vancouver Island Tuesday morning with
generally light amounts over our area, the better surge of moisture
arrives late Tue afternoon and evening.  This delay will allow 
central and south Willamette Valley zones moderate before too much
ice accumulate.  However closer to the west entrance of the Gorge
persistent east winds will keep parts of the north Willamette Valley
sub-freezing through the day Tuesday, with some moderation above
freezing in areas away from the Gorge Tue afternoon.  The
Portland/Vancouver metro area, especially toward the gorge may 
experience continued ice accumulation into Tuesday evening which and
have greater ice accumulation and resulting impacts in that area. 

With easterly pressure gradients continuing to resupply the Gorge
with cold air, see no reason temps will climb above freezing in Hood
River until later Wed afternoon, despite most model soundings
suggesting it occurs much sooner than that. That means nearly this
entire storm - which has enough rainfall to spark flood concerns -
will add about an inch of ice to the already astounding 18-24 inches
of snow and ice on the ground in Hood River. This brings up concerns
about weaker roofs caving in due to the extreme buildup of snow and
ice. The usual power outages and travel concerns are expected with
this event as well.

While the flood threat is still very real across SW WA/NW OR Tue-Wed,
QPF appears a little lighter than it did 24-48 hours ago. One reason
for this is that the vast majority of the forecast area will probably
miss out entirely on any rainfall from the first strong wave...which
is also the system slowing down the overall progress of the front.
This system is expected to intensify rapidly but curl north, dumping
the heaviest rain on Vancouver Island and the Olympic Peninsula. The
next two shortwaves still look like formidable rain-producers, as
this system taps into abundant subtropical moisture. Overall Tue-Wed
rain totals of 3-7 inches are still likely for the coast, Coast
Range, and S WA Cascades, with general 1.50 to 2.50 inch totals
elsewhere. With plenty of snow still on the ground across the inland
valleys north of Salem, this will likely still be enough to cause
urban and small stream flooding issues as heavy rain and melting snow
combine to overwhelm drainage systems. Icing from the beginning of
the event and a frozen ground will exacerbate the situation as
well...with much of the Portland and Vancouver metro area expected to
be a slushy, sloppy mess by the afternoon commute Tuesday. The last
shortwave and cold front will bring one last dose of heavy rain
Wednesday before precip tapers to showers behind the cold
front...which ironically will likely be the mechanism which finally
scours out all the low-level cold air across the region.

One last item of concern...wind along the coast and in the higher
terrain of the Coast Range. A High Wind warning has been issued 
primarily for the beaches and headlands and higher terrain of the
Coast mountains, for gusts 60 mph to 70 mph Tuesday afternoon into 
Wednesday morning. This looks to be in good shape, as
models have actually increased 850 mb winds a bit over the past few
runs. 

Eventually this strong wind aloft will chip away at the low-level
cold air despite easterly pressure gradients through the Columbia
Gorge. Strong westerly flow aloft will induce lee-side troughing over
the Columbia Basin; the resulting Chinook effect will put a big dent
in the cold air over the basin. Hood River will probably be one of
the last spots to lose the low-level cold air...sometime around late
Wed afternoon or evening and just in time for it to be replaced by
the next batch of cold air behind the front Wednesday night and
Thursday.  /26

.LONG TERM...Thursday night through Monday...Models remain in decent
agreement that the progressive weather pattern will continue through
the extended forecast, albeit with some slight timing differences. A
deepening upper level low looks to approach the Pac NW late Thursday
and swing a cold front across the forecast area on Friday which will
bring another round of gusty winds and more rain. Conditions look to
become more showery Friday night as the trough shifts inland. Colder
air aloft will filter in over the region during this time with snow
levels lowering to around 2000 ft by Saturday morning. Showers look
to continue on Saturday as a weak shortwave trough moves across the
region. Another upper level trough will approach the area Sunday and
swing another frontal system across the Pac NW. Post frontal showers
look to persist into early next week under northwesterly flow aloft,
with snow levels remaining below 2000 ft. There is still a chance of
low elevation snow during the extended forecast, but confidence is
extremely low. Nonetheless, keep an eye on the forecast as things
may change in the coming days. /64
&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions continue across most of the region this
evening with a high overcast deck remaining in place. Increasing
mid clouds may help limit any low stratus/fog development, but
will maintain some hint of development around KHIO and KEUG.
Strong offshore gradient will continue to produce 35-45 kt gusts
at the west end of the Columbia Gorge, and threat for LLWS near
Gorge increases after 10-12z through Tue. Initial precipitation
expected to reach the coast around 12Z Tue, with MVFR conditions
likely by 18Z. Initial precipitation reaches the interior between
15Z and 17Z, likely as -FZRA. More steady precip then arrives in
afternoon, with -FZRA becoming increasingly confined to KPDX
through gorge and rain elsewhere. MVFR expected for the
coast inland.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...Low level offshore flow will produce VFR
conditions through at least 18z Tuesday. East wind gusts 35-45 kt
will continue near the west end of the Gorge, including KTTD
through the morning, then gradually decrease late in the
afternoon. Light precipitation expected to begin around 16Z Tue,
as -FZRA. After brief lull, more significant moisture arrives in
afternoon with FZRA at the terminal toward the west end of the
Gorge through at least late Tue afternoon.   Weishaar/Cullen

&&

.MARINE...Latest guidance shows boundary layer wind speeds
increasing to 20 to 30 knots between 03Z and 08Z Tue. Solid gales
continue over all waters overnight through about midday Tue. 12Z
NAM shows 35 to 45 kt boundary layer wind speeds between 18Z Tue
and 00Z Wed. The GFS is a bit stronger with solid 40-45 knots
across all waters with coastal jet enhancement over the inner
waters. Will maintain the current Storm Watch. Models suggest wind
speeds start to diminish Wed afternoon, with the NAM and GFS
showing sub-gale force wind speeds by 00Z Thu. However, another
deep low pres area moves through the NE Pac Fri for potential
strong gales. The GFS is weaker with this low than the ECMWF and
lifts it north toward Vancouver Island sooner than the ECMWF, but
would still result in gale force wind for the waters. More
substantial model differences Sat night and beyond. The ECMWF
wants to develop another deep low near 42N 132W 12Z Sun while the
GFS has no hint of this feature. 

Seas remain below 10 ft today. By 12Z Wed combined seas to 25 feet
can be expected. Given these seas will be produced by wind moving
parallel to the coast, do not foresee any issues with high surf
criteria. However, high surf conditions likely to develop late in
the week as a potentially strong westerly wind fetch sets up over
the waters. It appears the main energy will be directed at the
central and south Oregon waters but it is still too early to
pinpoint the details. Weishaar

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Ice Storm Warning from 6 AM Tuesday to 6 PM PST Wednesday for 
     Central Columbia River Gorge-Upper Hood River Valley-
     Western Columbia River Gorge.

     Flood Watch from Tuesday evening through late Wednesday night 
     for Cascade Foothills in Lane County-Central Coast Range 
     of Western Oregon-Central Oregon Coast-Central Willamette 
     Valley-Northern Oregon Cascade Foothills-South Willamette 
     Valley.

     Freezing Rain Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM PST Tuesday for 
     Northern Oregon Cascade Foothills-Northern Oregon Cascades.

     Flood Watch from Tuesday morning through late Wednesday night 
     for Coast Range of Northwest Oregon-Greater Portland Metro 
     Area-Lower Columbia-North Oregon Coast.

     Ice Storm Warning from 4 AM to 10 PM PST Tuesday for Greater 
     Portland Metro Area.

     Freezing Rain Advisory from 2 AM to 2 PM PST Tuesday for Coast 
     Range of Northwest Oregon-Lower Columbia.

     High Wind Warning from noon Tuesday to 4 PM PST Wednesday for 
     Central Coast Range of Western Oregon-Coast Range of 
     Northwest Oregon.

     High Wind Warning from noon Tuesday to 10 AM PST Wednesday for 
     Central Oregon Coast-North Oregon Coast.

     Freezing Rain Advisory from 4 AM to 10 AM PST Tuesday for South 
     Willamette Valley.

     Freezing Rain Advisory from 4 AM to 2 PM PST Tuesday for 
     Central Willamette Valley.

WA...Ice Storm Warning from 6 AM Tuesday to 6 PM PST Wednesday for 
     Central Columbia River Gorge-South Washington Cascades-
     Western Columbia River Gorge.

     Flood Watch from Tuesday morning through late Wednesday night 
     for Greater Vancouver Area-I-5 Corridor in Cowlitz County-
     South Washington Cascade Foothills-South Washington Coast-
     Willapa Hills.

     Ice Storm Warning from 4 AM to 10 PM PST Tuesday for Greater 
     Vancouver Area.

     Freezing Rain Advisory from 2 AM to 2 PM PST Tuesday for I-5 
     Corridor in Cowlitz County.

     High Wind Warning from noon Tuesday to 10 AM PST Wednesday for 
     South Washington Coast.

     Freezing Rain Advisory from 4 AM to 6 PM PST Tuesday for South 
     Washington Cascade Foothills.

PZ...Storm Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning 
     for Coastal Waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR 
     out 60 nm.

     Gale Warning until 1 PM PST Tuesday for Coastal Waters from 
     Cape Shoalwater WA to Cascade Head OR out 60 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory for winds until 10 PM PST this evening for 
     Coastal Waters from Cascade Head OR to Florence OR out 60 
     nm.

     Gale Warning until 1 PM PST Tuesday for Coastal Waters from 
     Cascade Head OR to Florence OR out 60 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory for Rough Columbia River Bar until 10 PM 
     PST Tuesday.

&&

$$

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This discussion is for Northwest Oregon and Southwest Washington
from the Cascade crest to 60 nautical miles offshore. The area is
commonly referred to as the forecast area.

[ W WA | SW WA and W OR | SE WA and NE OR | NE WA and N ID ]

Southeastern Washington and Northeastern Oregon


694 
FXUS66 KPDT 170557
AFDPDT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
957 PM PST Mon Jan 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...Evening Update...The region will remain under a
weakening upper level ridge through tonight into Tuesday morning. As
such will continue to see very cold conditions across much of the
area, especially under low level inversions across the Columbia
Basin and a number of mountain valleys. Some mid/high level
cloudiness is impacting the stability at the top of the inversions,
thus low cloudiness has been struggling to redevelop over the Basin.
Still some patchy freezing fog/stratus and snow flurries will be
possible overnight into Tuesday morning. Winds have increased across
southern portions of the Grande Ronde valley and the wind advisory
in this area is on track. Precip with the next system has slowed
some and as such have slowed/lowered precip chances over the area
through Tuesday morning. Precip is also looking to be limited
Tuesday afternoon, with the main push of precip Tuesday night. 90 

.LONG TERM...Previous Discussion...For Wednesday night into Thursday
morning a storm system will be impacting the area bringing periods
of rain and higher elevation snow. Snow levels are forecast to be
between 5000 to 6000 feet over Central OR...north to the Columbia
Basin and the surrounding foothills. Snow levels will be lower over
the Blue Mountains (4000-5500 feet) East Slopes of the WA
Cascades(4000-4500 feet) Grande Ronde Valley(2500-3500 feet) and
Wallowa County(3500-4200 feet). These snow levels will put the
Grande Ronde Valley...Wallowa County and parts of the Blue Mtns on
the rain/snow line. Depending on exact temperatures several inches
of snow could be possible in the Blue Mtns...Grande Ronde Valley and
Wallowa Valley through Thursday AM. There will also be some
lingering gusty south winds along the Blue Mtn Foothills and in the
Grande Ronde Valley for Wednesday night. These winds will diminish
by early Thursday morning. The forecast area will be in between
systems Thursday afternoon and the first part of Thursday night.
Chances for precipitation decrease to less than 40 percent for most
locations...and even under 15 percent in the Lower Columbia Basin
during this time. Temperatures will remain mild on Thursday...with
highs in the lower to mid 40s for the lower elevations and 30s mtns.
The next system comes in as a strong occluded frontal boundary late
Thursday night...or more likely on Friday. There remains slight
timing differences between the latest guidance on this system, with
the GFS being faster than the ECMWF by 6-12 hrs. This system will
bring additional periods of rain and higher elevation snow to much
of the area. Snow levels will be lower...between 2500-3500 feet
across the area on Friday. High temperatures will remain in the
upper 30s to lower 40s Friday afternoon in the lower elevations with
upper 20s to mid 30s in the mtns. The forecast area will continue to
see a gradual cooldown through the weekend. The Pacific NW will
remain under a broad upper level trough through the end of the long
term period. The next system looks to impact the area on Sunday and
will bring more low elevation rain and high elevation snow. Snow
levels will again slowly lower...and from this early vantage point
look to be around 2000-3000 feet. High temperatures Sunday afternoon
will be between 35-40 for the lower elevations with mid 20s to lower
30s in the mtns. Colder air and more winter like conditions look to
build into the area by early next week as an upper level ridge
begins to build offshore...putting the region under a more
northerly...continental flow of air. 

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...A low level inversion remains over the
Columbia Basin, Yakima Valley and the Columbia River Gorge this
evening. This inversion looks to have a base between 2500 and 3000
ft MSL. As a result, a relatively thin stratus cloud deck has been
occurring the past few days. An area of mid level cloud is currently
moving across the region, and expect to see more areas of these
clouds move through overnight. Lift associated with these mid clouds
will continue to interfere with the development of the stratus deck.
As such have backed off on stratus and snow flurries at KDLS, KYKM,
KPSC, KALW and KPDT overnight. Increasing southeast surface flow
will keep KRDM and KBDN VFR through the night. A weak band of precip
looks to swing across the region around mid day Tuesday. Precip with
this band will be light, but should be in the form of sleet or
freezing rain across the Columbia Basin. Steadier precip will spread
across the region late in this period. All sites are expected to see
freezing rain, except KRDM and KBDN where rain is most likely. 90 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT   1  23  30  49 /  10  40  80  80 
ALW   6  26  32  49 /  10  40  70  90 
PSC   7  24  28  42 /  10  40  80  70 
YKM  11  23  29  40 /  10  60  60  60 
HRI   2  23  28  44 /  10  40  70  70 
ELN   7  24  26  38 /  10  60  70  60 
RDM   8  34  30  45 /  10  30  60  50 
LGD  10  28  30  40 /  10  40  80  80 
GCD  16  34  29  40 /   0  30  70  70 
DLS  11  27  32  40 /  10  60  80  80 

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PST Tuesday for ORZ041-044-
     049-050-505-507-508-510-511.

     Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday 
     morning for ORZ044-507-508-510.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM Tuesday to 10 AM PST Wednesday 
     for ORZ050.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM Tuesday to 4 AM PST Wednesday 
     for ORZ049.

     Wind Advisory until 4 AM PST Thursday for ORZ049.

WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PST Tuesday for WAZ024-
     026>029-521.

     Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday 
     morning for WAZ028-029.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM Tuesday to 4 AM PST Wednesday 
     for WAZ026-027.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM PST Tuesday for WAZ520.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 8 PM PST Tuesday for WAZ521.

&&

$$

90/77/90

[ W WA | SW WA and W OR | SE WA and NE OR | NE WA and N ID ]

Northeastern Washington and Northern Idaho


304 
FXUS66 KOTX 170607
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1007 PM PST Mon Jan 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Tonight will remain mostly dry, with cold temperatures. A 
prolonged period of active weather develops Tuesday and continues 
at least through Thursday. This will start out as a wintry mix,
with the potential for significant snow or ice for some, before
transitioning to warmer, wet weather later Wednesday into
Thursday. Localized flooding will also be possibility.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Forecast temperatures for tonight were lowered and some of the fog
wording for tonight was adjusted with an update. Remaining
portions of the forecast from Tuesday morning and beyond, which
includes a significant amount of winter weather highlights, 
remain unchanged. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Strong inversion associated with high pressure will keep
stratus and fog a nuisance in the aviation are tonight resulting
in IFR ceilings and visibilities at times. A wet frontal zone will
cross over the area tomorrow and bring a wintry mixture of ice
pellets and freezing rain that spreads from west to east through 
the day with some locations down further south transitioning to 
rain late tomorrow night. /Pelatti


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane         9  29  29  40  34  38 /  10  80 100 100 100  50 
Coeur d'Alene  14  31  31  41  35  39 /  10  80 100 100 100  70 
Pullman         6  34  32  41  35  40 /  10  40 100 100 100  60 
Lewiston       10  32  32  44  38  44 /  10  10 100 100  90  60 
Colville       13  29  29  39  36  39 /  10  80 100 100 100  60 
Sandpoint      16  30  30  40  35  39 /  10  90 100 100 100  90 
Kellogg        15  28  28  40  35  39 /  10  70 100 100 100  90 
Moses Lake      9  25  25  39  32  38 /  10  90 100  90  80  20 
Wenatchee      10  26  25  33  29  37 /  10  80 100  80  70  20 
Omak           15  28  28  37  33  37 /  10  70 100 100  90  30 

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PST Tuesday for Central 
     Panhandle Mountains-Coeur d'Alene Area-Idaho Palouse-Lewis 
     and Southern Nez Perce Counties-Lewiston Area-Northern 
     Panhandle. 

     Winter Storm Warning from 7 AM Tuesday to 8 AM PST Thursday for 
     Northern Panhandle. 

     Freezing Rain Advisory from 9 AM to 4 PM PST Tuesday for Central 
     Panhandle Mountains-Coeur d'Alene Area-Idaho Palouse. 

WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PST Tuesday for East Slopes 
     Northern Cascades-Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Moses 
     Lake Area-Northeast Blue Mountains-Northeast Mountains-
     Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Spokane Area-Upper 
     Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse-Waterville Plateau-
     Wenatchee Area. 

     Winter Storm Warning from 7 AM Tuesday to 8 AM PST Thursday for 
     East Slopes Northern Cascades-Northeast Mountains-Okanogan 
     Highlands-Okanogan Valley. 

     Freezing Rain Advisory from 9 AM to 4 PM PST Tuesday for Spokane 
     Area-Washington Palouse. 

     Freezing Rain Advisory from 9 AM Tuesday to 8 AM PST Wednesday 
     for Upper Columbia Basin. 

     Ice Storm Warning from 7 AM Tuesday to 9 AM PST Wednesday for 
     Moses Lake Area. 

     Ice Storm Warning from 7 AM Tuesday to 4 PM PST Wednesday for 
     East Slopes Northern Cascades-Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee 
     Area. 

&&

$$

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