[
W WA |
SW WA and W OR |
SE WA and NE OR |
NE WA and N ID
]
Western Washington
212
FXUS66 KSEW 122148
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 PM PDT MON MAY 12 2008
.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO THE AREA TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN SLOWLY LIFT NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. A STRONG UPPER
RIDGE WILL PROVIDE WARM AND SUNNY WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE. A WEAK
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL REACH THE AREA SUNDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO OVERSPREAD THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. SATELLITE
SSMI DATA WOULD INDICATE LIGHT RAIN HAS MOVED INSIDE 130 W AND WILL
PROBABLY REACH THE COAST DURING THE EVENING...POSSIBLY SPREADING
INTO THE N INTERIOR AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE GFS IS THE FASTER OF THE
SOLUTIONS BRINGING RAIN INTO PUGET SOUND AFTER 12Z WHILE THE ECMWF
IS A BIT SLOWER...IMPLYING A LATE MORNING ARRIVAL. DECIDED TO GO
WITH CHANCE POPS IN THE MORNING THEN CATEGORICAL POPS BY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT GIVEN GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF DURING
THAT PERIOD. MODERATE WLY FLOW AT 850 MB WILL HELP ENHANCE RAINFALL
ALONG W FACING SLOPES...WITH A GENERAL HALF INCH TO LOCALLY ONE INCH
OF RAIN. THESE QPF AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A FLOOD RISK
ON AREA RIVERS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY STILL
RISE RAPIDLY WITH FAST FLOWS OCCURRING BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. PEOPLE ENGAGED IN ACTIVITIES NEAR STREAMS AND RIVERS
SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO THIS POTENTIAL HAZARD.
MODELS AGREE ON LIFTING THE WARM FRONT NWD ON WEDNESDAY WITH
DECREASING RAIN THROUGH THE DAY. UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD VERY QUICKLY ON
BOTH MODELS AND I LIKE THE IDEA OF MORE RAPID DRYING SHOWN BY THE
ECMWF. WILL LEAVE SOME LOW POPS INTO THE AFTERNOON JUST IN CASE THE
GFS IS RIGHT BUT A DRY AFTERNOON IS ALSO POSSIBLE. MODELS AGREE ON
BUILDING A STRONG 5990M UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND A NLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL HINDER TEMPS A LITTLE BUT EXPECT AT LEAST A GOOD 10+
DEGREES OF WARMING...INTO THE 70S FOR MOST THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...THE GFS/ECMWF MAINTAIN A STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
AREA ON FRIDAY WITH THERMALLY INDUCED LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG THE
COAST. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW
SHOULD PRODUCE MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES...POSSIBLY REACHING NEAR
RECORD HIGHS BY FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY. IF CURRENT MODEL RUNS
ARE CORRECT...THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE COAST
FRIDAY PRODUCING THERE WARMEST TEMPS THERE...PROBABLY EVEN A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN THE INTERIOR. ON SATURDAY...LIGHT ONSHORE
GRADIENTS DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST WITH COOLER TEMPS BUT THE
THERMALLY INDUCED TROUGH SHIFTS OVER INTERIOR WRN WA GIVING THE
WARMEST TEMPS TO THE PUGET SOUND/FOOTHILL AREAS. THIS MAY BE A BIT
MUCH DETAIL FOR DAY 5...BUT THATS HOW THINGS LOOK AT THIS POINT.
UPPER HEIGHTS ABOVE 5990 CERTAINLY SUPPORT A POTENTIAL OF A FEW 90+
DEGREE TEMPS...HOWEVER WILL PLAY IT MORE CONSERVATIVE FOR NOW WITH
80S IN THE FORECAST...STILL WELL ABOVE CLIMO AND MOS. IT REMAINS
UNCLEAR WHEN A MARINE PUSH WILL ARRIVE BUT MOST LIKELY SOMETIME
SATURDAY EVENING OR SUNDAY. ONCE THE RIDGE SHIFTS OFF TO THE
EAST...A COOL AND SHOWERY PATTERN WILL RETURN THE END OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MERCER
&&
.AVIATION...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST. HIGHER
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
THICKEN AND LOWER OVERNIGHT WITH RAIN DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST
TONIGHT AND OVER THE INTERIOR TUESDAY.
.KSEA...GOOD VFR CIGS THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT WITH A THREAT OF
LIGHT RAIN AFTER 10Z-12Z TUE MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...THEN BECOMING LIGHT SOUTH
CERNIGLIA
&&
.MARINE...WARM FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION LATER TONIGHT WILL
INCREASE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT AND MOST ALL
AREAS TUESDAY. STRENGTH OF WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATER WILL BE SUCH
THAT SOME LOCATIONS WILL SEE 20-25 KTS AT TIMES SO I DECIDED TO
HOIST THE SCA HEADLINE THAT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE FOR THE REMAINING
WATERS WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA STRENGTH. CERNIGLIA
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO THE COASTAL WATERS TUE AND TUE EVENING.
$$
WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE
[
W WA |
SW WA and W OR |
SE WA and NE OR |
NE WA and N ID
]
Southwestern Washington and Western Oregon
028
FXUS66 KPQR 122157
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
245 PM PDT MON MAY 12 2008
.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST TONIGHT...THEN
SLOWLY LIFT NE THROUGH NW OREGON AND WA TUE THROUGH WED. LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL TURN OFFSHORE BY THU AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRES BUILDS UP THE
OREGON COAST UNDER A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE TROUGH WILL
EVENTUALLY MOVE INLAND THIS WEEKEND TURNING THE FLOW BACK ONSHORE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF WARM FRONT NEAR 130W. SATELLITE
PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES HAVE PRECIPITATION JUST INSIDE 130W OFF THE
WASHINGTON AND OREGON COAST THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS BRING IT A BIT
CLOSER TONIGHT SO COULD SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ON THE COAST.
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN BRINGING ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM A
SYSTEM NOW BETWEEN 160W AND 170W AT AROUND 40N. AS THIS SYSTEM
APPROACHES IT WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE OFFSHORE STRENGTHENING MOIST
WESTERLY FLOW INTO THE AREA. THIS MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTAINING TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1.25 TO
1.75 INCHES...QUITE HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WHILE THE BULK OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA...THE QUESTION IS
HOW FAR SOUTH WILL IT GO. HARD TO DISCOUNT PRECIPITATION REACHING
INTO THE NORTHERN OREGON ZONES AS MODEL QPF AND MOS GUIDANCE ARE
INDICATING PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA TUE AND INTO WED. SO HAVE
INCREASED POPS FROM ABOUT THE CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY NORTHWARD TUE
INTO WED. ON WED MORNING THE UPPER RIDGE OFFSHORE BEGINS TO
STRENGTHEN AND WILL LIFT THE PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE AREA BY WED
AFTERNOON. THE AIR MASS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND
6C TUE AND 10C WED. THU WILL TRANSITION TO WARM AND DRY WEATHER AS AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP AS A SURFACE TROUGH STRENGTHEN ALONG THE COAST. THIS PATTERN
WILL ASSIST IN BOOSTING MAX TEMPERATURES TO 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES SEEN IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
THE FORECAST AREA WILL EXPERIENCE QUITE WARM AND POSSIBLY NEAR
RECORD TEMPERATURES TO END THE WEEK. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ALONG WITH A STRONG THERMAL TROUGH ALONG THE COASTLINE WILL PERSIST
INTO SAT. MODEL RUNS VARY IN THE TIMING OF THE BREAKDOWN OF THE
RIDGE...WITH CURRENT RUNS NOW SHOWING THE RIDGE MOVING EAST OF THE
CASCADES LATE SAT INTO SUN. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL PRODUCE A
MARINE PUSH IN ONSHORE FLOW SAT NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY...AND WILL
BRING CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN NEXT
WEEK. BROWN
&&
.AVIATION...CLOUDS ARE VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH CIGS ABOUT KSLE
NORTHWARD. MAY BE A BIT OF AN EROSION STILL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...OTHERWISE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WITH THE NEXT WARM FRONT
WILL SPREAD IN THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. CIGS WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT
AND TUE...REACHING MVFR CONDITIONS NEAR THE COAST BY MORNING AND
POSSIBLY INLAND LATER TUESDAY. SHOULD SEE SOME RAIN FROM THIS WARM
FRONT ESPECIALLY COAST AND NORTH OF ABOUT SALEM. COAST COULD SEE
SOME SPRINKLES TONIGHT. BETTER SHOT AT RAIN IS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. MIGHT SEE SOME MVFR
CIGS DEVELOP ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TOLLESON
&&
.MARINE...SEAS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 10 FT AND WILL STAY BELOW 10 FT
THU AND FRI. WENT WITH A LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WITH THE WARM
FRONT FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING. THERMAL TROUGH BUILDS
STRONGLY UP THE COAST THURSDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND
FOR NORTHERLY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS. TOLLESON
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA/OR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR
THIS MORNING.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS CAPE SHOALWATER TO
CASCADE HEAD TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT POPS (PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION)
AST 288400 PDX 177400 SLE 132100 EUG 111100
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
[
W WA |
SW WA and W OR |
SE WA and NE OR |
NE WA and N ID
]
Southeastern Washington and Northeastern Oregon
728
FXUS66 KPDT 122132
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
232 PM PDT MON MAY 12 2008
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A WEAK DISTURBANCE
WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TONIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH FROM THIS DISTURBANCE OTHER THAN
INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT...THOUGH A FEW
LIGHT SPRINKLES MAY OCCUR NEAR THE CENTRAL WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST
TOWARDS DAYBREAK TUESDAY. A STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO AND
OVER THE RIDGE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT THAT SHOULD PRODUCE ENOUGH WARM AIR
ADVECTION INDUCED LIFT FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OVER OUR WASHINGTON AND
NORTHERN OREGON ZONES. FOR NOW HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE 20 TO 40
PERCENT RANGE FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH
PRECIP CHANCES MAY NEED TO GO HIGHER DEPENDING ON TRENDS INDICATED
BY FUTURE DATA RUNS. CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL DECREASE WEDNESDAY...AND
LARGELY END WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT.
SNOW LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO RISE TUESDAY...AND EXPECT MOSTLY RAIN
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO LIMIT ANY SLOW DOWN OF THE SNOW MELT
THAT WILL BE INITIATED DURING THE DAY TIME. THUS THE COMBINATION OF
FAIRLY CONTINUOUS SNOW MELT AT HIGHER ELEVATION AND SOME LIGHT RAIN
WILL ALLOW FOR RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. 90
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...LARGE SCALE RIDGING AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM PERIOD. DRY CONDITIONS
ACCOMPANIED BY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
BE LIKELY THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE
LOWER 90S ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BOTH THE 12Z ECMWF AND THE 12Z GFS
SHOW A BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THE TIMING OF THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY.
THEREFORE...HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MOUNTAINS SHOWERS
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. CALDER
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS
ALL TAF SITES. HOWEVER...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO
NUMEROUS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BY TUESDAY MORNING IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FRONTAL
SYSTEM...SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF WASHINGTON AND
NORTHERN OREGON BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN HEAVY SHOWERS
AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR KRDM. MOST LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE
WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH TUESDAY. 82
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 40 62 48 72 / 0 20 30 20
ALW 43 62 50 73 / 0 20 30 20
PSC 42 67 51 77 / 0 20 20 10
YKM 42 64 48 75 / 0 20 20 10
HRI 41 66 50 76 / 0 20 20 10
ELN 41 61 48 69 / 0 20 20 10
RDM 30 66 42 73 / 0 10 10 0
LGD 33 61 44 66 / 0 10 30 20
GCD 34 64 42 69 / 0 10 10 20
DLS 45 68 53 74 / 0 30 30 10
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
$$
TI:GGG
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
90/82/82
[
W WA |
SW WA and W OR |
SE WA and NE OR |
NE WA and N ID
]
Northeastern Washington and Northern Idaho
882
FXUS66 KOTX 122328
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
430 PM PDT MON MAY 12 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH OVER THE INLAND NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT
BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER...STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD RAPIDLY OVER THE REGION RESULTING IN DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS AIRMASS WILL BRING
THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR THIS SEASON.
&&
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 244 PM
TONIGHT...RESIDUAL INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH THE WANING HOURS OF
SOLAR INSOLATION WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF CONVECTION
EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NE CORNER OF WA AND INTO NORTH
IDAHO. ASIDE FROM THIS SMALL THREAT OF PRECIPITATION...THE NIGHT
WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN INCOMING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. AS OF
21Z...THIS RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE CENTRAL BC COAST TO
40/132...AND WAS HANDLED QUITE WELL BY THE SHORT RANGE MODELS.
THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE CASCADE THIS EVENING AND
MOVE INTO NORTH IDAHO BY MORNING. AS THE RIDGE TRANSLATES EASTWARD
IT WILL FLATTEN RAPIDLY INTO PSEUDO-ZONAL FLOW BY 12Z TUE. THE
MAIN IMPACT OF THIS TRANSITION WILL BE A RAPID INFLUX OF MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. NONETHELESS...WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
PRECIP EXCEPT FOR SMALL CHANCES OVER THE NORTHERN CASCADES LATE.
THE MAIN IMPACT OF THE CLOUDS WILL BE TO KEEP MIN TEMPS RELATIVELY
MILD OVERNIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. FX
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LARGE MID-LATITUDE BAROCLINIC BAND
EXTENDING ACROSS THE PACIFIC AND DRAPED ACROSS THE TOP OF AN
INCOMING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SAG INTO EASTERN WASHINGTON
AND NORTHERN IDAHO IN A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST MANNER AND BRING
RAIN...PRIMARILY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. REMNANTS OF
TYPHOON RAMMASUN HAVE BEEN ABSORBED INTO THE FAR WESTERN FRINGE
OF THIS BAROCLINIC BAND WHICH CANT HURT THE MOISTURE CONTENT
CONTAINED IN IT...REFLECTED IN AMSU PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
APPROACHING TWO INCHES OFF THE COAST. WORKING AGAINST MEASURING
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE THE LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW THAT
DOWNSLOPES OFF THE CASCADES. SINCE THE MOISTURE CONTENT IS SO
HIGH FELT SLIGHT CHANCE RATHER THAN NO POPS REMAIN THE WAY TO GO
FOR LOWLAND LOCATIONS EAST OF THE CASCADE CREST. CLOUD COVER
SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLE AS WELL WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS
BAROCLINIC BAND OVERHEAD TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE
EVENTUALLY AMPLIFIES ENOUGH TO PUSH ANY REMAINING BAROCLINICITY
IN THE REGION WELL TO THE NORTH AND AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA
WHICH ALLOWS FOR A DRYING AND WARMING TREND FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY
AND BEYOND. /PELATTI
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE INLAND
NORTHWEST WILL EXPERIENCE ITS FIRST TASTE OF SUMMER LATE THIS WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THE LONGWAVE PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC WILL UNDERGO
AMPLIFICATION...WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY IS ALREADY SHOWING THE EARLY STAGES OF THE BIG PATTERN
CHANGE. THE LARGE 500MB UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN
HAS BEGUN DIGGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN. BY
THURSDAY MORNING...THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL DIG NEARLY AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE SUBSEQUENT RIDGE WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON THE EVENTUAL BREAK DOWN OF THE
UPPER RIDGE. THE ECMWF HOLDS ONTO THE RIDGE THROUGH MONDAY...BUT THE
12Z GFS SUGGEST THAT THE BREAK DOWN WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AT
THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY...WITH WITH
850MB TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 20-23C. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
80S TO LOW 90S ARE REALISTIC THIS WEEKEND...WE WILL LIKELY FALL
SHORT OF RECORD HEAT. LOOKING BACK TO THE RECORD HEAT OF
2006...850MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE 2 TO 4 C BELOW THOSE ON
MAY 17 2006.
A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK (SEAESFOTX) IS IN EFFECT FOR RIVERS AND
STREAMS IN THE REGION. AT THIS TIME...THE RIVERS LIKE THE COEUR
D'ALENE...ST JOE...MOYIE...AND SPOKANE LOOK TO HAVE A HEIGHTENED
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING SINCE THE SNOW-PACK IN THE IDAHO PANHANDLE
IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WE WILL ALSO BE
WATCHING THE STEHEKIN...ENTIAT...AND OKANOGAN FOR SIGNIFICANT
RISES...BUT THEY DO NOT APPEAR TO BE IN DANGER OF EXCEEDING FLOOD
STAGE AT THIS TIME. /GKOCH
&&
.AVIATION...
CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE IDAHO PANHANDLE AND THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS OF WASHINGTON WILL BE DECREASING WITH THE LOSS
OF SURFACE HEATING THIS EVENING. BETWEEN 02-04Z MOST OF THE CUMULUS
WILL DIMINISH. THE CLEARING WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS MID AND HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT. PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 19Z AND 21Z TOMORROW OVER
EASTERN WASHINGTON. WENATCHEE AND MOSES LAKE WILL LIKELY BE SHADOWED
BY THE WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CASCADES...BUT SPOKANE...PULLMAN...
AND COEUR D'ALENE CAN EXPECT LIGHT RAIN BY 21Z. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES SHOULD PRIMARILY BE VFR THROUGH 00Z. /GKOCH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SPOKANE 40 58 42 68 44 76 / 10 30 50 20 10 0
COEUR D'ALENE 38 59 41 67 43 76 / 10 30 50 30 10 0
PULLMAN 38 61 44 68 46 72 / 10 20 40 40 10 0
LEWISTON 43 68 50 74 51 80 / 0 20 30 20 10 0
COLVILLE 39 60 41 72 43 82 / 10 40 60 20 10 0
SANDPOINT 37 56 40 64 41 79 / 20 30 50 40 10 0
KELLOGG 36 57 40 62 41 75 / 20 20 60 60 10 0
MOSES LAKE 43 68 44 77 48 83 / 0 20 20 10 0 0
WENATCHEE 48 67 50 74 53 86 / 0 20 20 10 0 0
OMAK 42 61 43 76 46 87 / 0 40 40 10 10 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
$$
[
W WA |
SW WA and W OR |
SE WA and NE OR |
NE WA and N ID
]
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