Western Washington

212 
FXUS66 KSEW 122148
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 PM PDT MON MAY 12 2008

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO THE AREA TUESDAY AND 
TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN SLOWLY LIFT NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. A STRONG UPPER 
RIDGE WILL PROVIDE WARM AND SUNNY WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH 
SATURDAY...WITH NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE. A WEAK 
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL REACH THE AREA SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO OVERSPREAD THE 
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. SATELLITE 
SSMI DATA WOULD INDICATE LIGHT RAIN HAS MOVED INSIDE 130 W AND WILL 
PROBABLY REACH THE COAST DURING THE EVENING...POSSIBLY SPREADING 
INTO THE N INTERIOR AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE GFS IS THE FASTER OF THE 
SOLUTIONS BRINGING RAIN INTO PUGET SOUND AFTER 12Z WHILE THE ECMWF 
IS A BIT SLOWER...IMPLYING A LATE MORNING ARRIVAL. DECIDED TO GO 
WITH CHANCE POPS IN THE MORNING THEN CATEGORICAL POPS BY 
AFTERNOON/NIGHT GIVEN GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF DURING 
THAT PERIOD. MODERATE WLY FLOW AT 850 MB WILL HELP ENHANCE RAINFALL 
ALONG W FACING SLOPES...WITH A GENERAL HALF INCH TO LOCALLY ONE INCH 
OF RAIN. THESE QPF AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A FLOOD RISK 
ON AREA RIVERS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY STILL 
RISE RAPIDLY WITH FAST FLOWS OCCURRING BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO 
WEDNESDAY. PEOPLE ENGAGED IN ACTIVITIES NEAR STREAMS AND RIVERS 
SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO THIS POTENTIAL HAZARD. 

MODELS AGREE ON LIFTING THE WARM FRONT NWD ON WEDNESDAY WITH 
DECREASING RAIN THROUGH THE DAY. UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD VERY QUICKLY ON 
BOTH MODELS AND I LIKE THE IDEA OF MORE RAPID DRYING SHOWN BY THE 
ECMWF. WILL LEAVE SOME LOW POPS INTO THE AFTERNOON JUST IN CASE THE 
GFS IS RIGHT BUT A DRY AFTERNOON IS ALSO POSSIBLE. MODELS AGREE ON 
BUILDING A STRONG 5990M UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT 
INTO THURSDAY. RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND A NLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW 
LEVEL FLOW WILL HINDER TEMPS A LITTLE BUT EXPECT AT LEAST A GOOD 10+ 
DEGREES OF WARMING...INTO THE 70S FOR MOST THE AREA. 

.LONG TERM...THE GFS/ECMWF MAINTAIN A STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE 
AREA ON FRIDAY WITH THERMALLY INDUCED LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG THE 
COAST. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW 
SHOULD PRODUCE MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES...POSSIBLY REACHING NEAR 
RECORD HIGHS BY FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY. IF CURRENT MODEL RUNS 
ARE CORRECT...THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE COAST 
FRIDAY PRODUCING THERE WARMEST TEMPS THERE...PROBABLY EVEN A FEW 
DEGREES WARMER THAN THE INTERIOR. ON SATURDAY...LIGHT ONSHORE 
GRADIENTS DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST WITH COOLER TEMPS BUT THE 
THERMALLY INDUCED TROUGH SHIFTS OVER INTERIOR WRN WA GIVING THE 
WARMEST TEMPS TO THE PUGET SOUND/FOOTHILL AREAS. THIS MAY BE A BIT 
MUCH DETAIL FOR DAY 5...BUT THATS HOW THINGS LOOK AT THIS POINT. 
UPPER HEIGHTS ABOVE 5990 CERTAINLY SUPPORT A POTENTIAL OF A FEW 90+ 
DEGREE TEMPS...HOWEVER WILL PLAY IT MORE CONSERVATIVE FOR NOW WITH 
80S IN THE FORECAST...STILL WELL ABOVE CLIMO AND MOS. IT REMAINS 
UNCLEAR WHEN A MARINE PUSH WILL ARRIVE BUT MOST LIKELY SOMETIME 
SATURDAY EVENING OR SUNDAY. ONCE THE RIDGE SHIFTS OFF TO THE 
EAST...A COOL AND SHOWERY PATTERN WILL RETURN THE END OF THE WEEKEND 
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MERCER 

&&

.AVIATION...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA 
THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST. HIGHER 
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO 
THICKEN AND LOWER OVERNIGHT WITH RAIN DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST 
TONIGHT AND OVER THE INTERIOR TUESDAY. 

.KSEA...GOOD VFR CIGS THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT WITH A THREAT OF 
LIGHT RAIN AFTER 10Z-12Z TUE MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND WILL 
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...THEN BECOMING LIGHT SOUTH 
CERNIGLIA
 
&&

.MARINE...WARM FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION LATER TONIGHT WILL 
INCREASE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT AND MOST ALL 
AREAS TUESDAY. STRENGTH OF WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATER WILL BE SUCH 
THAT SOME LOCATIONS WILL SEE 20-25 KTS AT TIMES SO I DECIDED TO 
HOIST THE SCA HEADLINE THAT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE FOR THE REMAINING 
WATERS WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA STRENGTH.   CERNIGLIA

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO THE COASTAL WATERS TUE AND TUE EVENING. 

$$

WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

Southwestern Washington and Western Oregon

028 
FXUS66 KPQR 122157
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
245 PM PDT MON MAY 12 2008

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST TONIGHT...THEN
SLOWLY LIFT NE THROUGH NW OREGON AND WA TUE THROUGH WED. LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL TURN OFFSHORE BY THU AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRES BUILDS UP THE
OREGON COAST UNDER A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE TROUGH WILL
EVENTUALLY MOVE INLAND THIS WEEKEND TURNING THE FLOW BACK ONSHORE.
&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF WARM FRONT NEAR 130W.  SATELLITE
PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES HAVE PRECIPITATION JUST INSIDE 130W OFF THE
WASHINGTON AND OREGON COAST THIS AFTERNOON.  MODELS BRING IT A BIT
CLOSER TONIGHT SO COULD SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ON THE COAST.
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN BRINGING ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM A
SYSTEM NOW BETWEEN 160W AND 170W AT AROUND 40N. AS THIS SYSTEM
APPROACHES IT WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE OFFSHORE STRENGTHENING MOIST
WESTERLY FLOW INTO THE AREA. THIS MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTAINING TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1.25 TO
1.75 INCHES...QUITE HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  WHILE THE BULK OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA...THE QUESTION IS
HOW FAR SOUTH WILL IT GO.  HARD TO DISCOUNT PRECIPITATION REACHING
INTO THE NORTHERN OREGON ZONES AS MODEL QPF AND MOS GUIDANCE ARE
INDICATING PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA TUE AND INTO WED. SO HAVE
INCREASED POPS FROM ABOUT THE CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY NORTHWARD TUE
INTO WED. ON WED MORNING THE UPPER RIDGE OFFSHORE BEGINS TO
STRENGTHEN AND WILL LIFT THE PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE AREA BY WED
AFTERNOON.  THE AIR MASS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND
6C TUE AND 10C WED. THU WILL TRANSITION TO WARM AND DRY WEATHER AS AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP AS A SURFACE TROUGH STRENGTHEN ALONG THE COAST. THIS PATTERN
WILL ASSIST IN BOOSTING MAX TEMPERATURES TO 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES SEEN IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
THE FORECAST AREA WILL EXPERIENCE QUITE WARM AND POSSIBLY NEAR
RECORD TEMPERATURES TO END THE WEEK. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ALONG WITH A STRONG THERMAL TROUGH ALONG THE COASTLINE WILL PERSIST
INTO SAT. MODEL RUNS VARY IN THE TIMING OF THE BREAKDOWN OF THE
RIDGE...WITH CURRENT RUNS NOW SHOWING THE RIDGE MOVING EAST OF THE
CASCADES LATE SAT INTO SUN. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL PRODUCE A
MARINE PUSH IN ONSHORE FLOW SAT NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY...AND WILL
BRING CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN NEXT
WEEK. BROWN
&&

.AVIATION...CLOUDS ARE VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH CIGS ABOUT KSLE
NORTHWARD. MAY BE A BIT OF AN EROSION STILL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...OTHERWISE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WITH THE NEXT WARM FRONT
WILL SPREAD IN THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. CIGS WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT
AND TUE...REACHING MVFR CONDITIONS NEAR THE COAST BY MORNING AND
POSSIBLY INLAND LATER TUESDAY. SHOULD SEE SOME RAIN FROM THIS WARM
FRONT ESPECIALLY COAST AND NORTH OF ABOUT SALEM. COAST COULD SEE
SOME SPRINKLES TONIGHT. BETTER SHOT AT RAIN IS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. MIGHT SEE SOME MVFR
CIGS DEVELOP ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TOLLESON
&&

.MARINE...SEAS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 10 FT AND WILL STAY BELOW 10 FT
THU AND FRI. WENT WITH A LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WITH THE WARM
FRONT FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING. THERMAL TROUGH BUILDS
STRONGLY UP THE COAST THURSDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND
FOR NORTHERLY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS. TOLLESON
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA/OR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR
          THIS MORNING.
        SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS CAPE SHOALWATER TO
          CASCADE HEAD TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT POPS (PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION)
AST 288400  PDX 177400  SLE 132100  EUG 111100
$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.

Southeastern Washington and Northeastern Oregon

728 
FXUS66 KPDT 122132
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
232 PM PDT MON MAY 12 2008

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A WEAK DISTURBANCE 
WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST 
TONIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH FROM THIS DISTURBANCE OTHER THAN 
INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT...THOUGH A FEW 
LIGHT SPRINKLES MAY OCCUR NEAR THE CENTRAL WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST 
TOWARDS DAYBREAK TUESDAY. A STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO AND 
OVER THE RIDGE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE 
ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT THAT SHOULD PRODUCE ENOUGH WARM AIR 
ADVECTION INDUCED LIFT FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OVER OUR WASHINGTON AND 
NORTHERN OREGON ZONES. FOR NOW HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE 20 TO 40 
PERCENT RANGE FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH 
PRECIP CHANCES MAY NEED TO GO HIGHER DEPENDING ON TRENDS INDICATED 
BY FUTURE DATA RUNS. CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL DECREASE WEDNESDAY...AND 
LARGELY END WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT. 
SNOW LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO RISE TUESDAY...AND EXPECT MOSTLY RAIN 
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TUESDAY 
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO LIMIT ANY SLOW DOWN OF THE SNOW MELT 
THAT WILL BE INITIATED DURING THE DAY TIME. THUS THE COMBINATION OF 
FAIRLY CONTINUOUS SNOW MELT AT HIGHER ELEVATION AND SOME LIGHT RAIN 
WILL ALLOW FOR RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. 90 

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...LARGE SCALE RIDGING AND 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM PERIOD. DRY CONDITIONS 
ACCOMPANIED BY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL 
BE LIKELY THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 
LOWER 90S ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BOTH THE 12Z ECMWF AND THE 12Z GFS 
SHOW A BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT. 
HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THE TIMING OF THE 
FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY. 
THEREFORE...HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MOUNTAINS SHOWERS 
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. CALDER 

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS 
ALL TAF SITES. HOWEVER...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO 
NUMEROUS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BY TUESDAY MORNING IN ADVANCE OF AN 
APPROACHING WARM FRONT. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FRONTAL 
SYSTEM...SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF WASHINGTON AND 
NORTHERN OREGON BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...BRIEF MVFR 
CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN HEAVY SHOWERS 
AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR KRDM. MOST LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE 
WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH TUESDAY. 82 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  40  62  48  72 /   0  20  30  20 
ALW  43  62  50  73 /   0  20  30  20 
PSC  42  67  51  77 /   0  20  20  10 
YKM  42  64  48  75 /   0  20  20  10 
HRI  41  66  50  76 /   0  20  20  10 
ELN  41  61  48  69 /   0  20  20  10 
RDM  30  66  42  73 /   0  10  10   0 
LGD  33  61  44  66 /   0  10  30  20 
GCD  34  64  42  69 /   0  10  10  20 
DLS  45  68  53  74 /   0  30  30  10 

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

$$

TI:GGG
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
90/82/82

Northeastern Washington and Northern Idaho

882 
FXUS66 KOTX 122328
AFDOTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
430 PM PDT MON MAY 12 2008

.SYNOPSIS... 
A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH OVER THE INLAND NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT 
BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH 
EARLY WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER...STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL 
BUILD RAPIDLY OVER THE REGION RESULTING IN DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM 
CONDITIONS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS AIRMASS WILL BRING 
THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR THIS SEASON. 


&&

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 244 PM
TONIGHT...RESIDUAL INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH THE WANING HOURS OF
SOLAR INSOLATION WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF CONVECTION
EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NE CORNER OF WA AND INTO NORTH
IDAHO. ASIDE FROM THIS SMALL THREAT OF PRECIPITATION...THE NIGHT
WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN INCOMING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. AS OF
21Z...THIS RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE CENTRAL BC COAST TO
40/132...AND WAS HANDLED QUITE WELL BY THE SHORT RANGE MODELS.
THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE CASCADE THIS EVENING AND
MOVE INTO NORTH IDAHO BY MORNING. AS THE RIDGE TRANSLATES EASTWARD
IT WILL FLATTEN RAPIDLY INTO PSEUDO-ZONAL FLOW BY 12Z TUE. THE
MAIN IMPACT OF THIS TRANSITION WILL BE A RAPID INFLUX OF MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. NONETHELESS...WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY 
PRECIP EXCEPT FOR SMALL CHANCES OVER THE NORTHERN CASCADES LATE.

THE MAIN IMPACT OF THE CLOUDS WILL BE TO KEEP MIN TEMPS RELATIVELY
MILD OVERNIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. FX

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LARGE MID-LATITUDE BAROCLINIC BAND
EXTENDING ACROSS THE PACIFIC AND DRAPED ACROSS THE TOP OF AN 
INCOMING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SAG INTO EASTERN WASHINGTON 
AND NORTHERN IDAHO IN A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST MANNER AND BRING
RAIN...PRIMARILY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. REMNANTS OF 
TYPHOON RAMMASUN HAVE BEEN ABSORBED INTO THE FAR WESTERN FRINGE
OF THIS BAROCLINIC BAND WHICH CANT HURT THE MOISTURE CONTENT
CONTAINED IN IT...REFLECTED IN AMSU PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
APPROACHING TWO INCHES OFF THE COAST. WORKING AGAINST MEASURING
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE THE LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW THAT 
DOWNSLOPES OFF THE CASCADES. SINCE THE MOISTURE CONTENT IS SO
HIGH FELT SLIGHT CHANCE RATHER THAN NO POPS REMAIN THE WAY TO GO
FOR LOWLAND LOCATIONS EAST OF THE CASCADE CREST. CLOUD COVER 
SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLE AS WELL WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS 
BAROCLINIC BAND OVERHEAD TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE
EVENTUALLY AMPLIFIES ENOUGH TO PUSH ANY REMAINING BAROCLINICITY
IN THE REGION WELL TO THE NORTH AND AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA
WHICH ALLOWS FOR A DRYING AND WARMING TREND FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY
AND BEYOND. /PELATTI

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE INLAND
NORTHWEST WILL EXPERIENCE ITS FIRST TASTE OF SUMMER LATE THIS WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THE LONGWAVE PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC WILL UNDERGO
AMPLIFICATION...WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY IS ALREADY SHOWING THE EARLY STAGES OF THE BIG PATTERN
CHANGE. THE LARGE 500MB UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN 
HAS BEGUN DIGGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN. BY 
THURSDAY MORNING...THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL DIG NEARLY AS FAR 
SOUTH AS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE SUBSEQUENT RIDGE WILL PUSH 
TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND 
SUNDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON THE EVENTUAL BREAK DOWN OF THE 
UPPER RIDGE. THE ECMWF HOLDS ONTO THE RIDGE THROUGH MONDAY...BUT THE 
12Z GFS SUGGEST THAT THE BREAK DOWN WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AT 
THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY...WITH WITH 
850MB TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 20-23C. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 
80S TO LOW 90S ARE REALISTIC THIS WEEKEND...WE WILL LIKELY FALL 
SHORT OF RECORD HEAT. LOOKING BACK TO THE RECORD HEAT OF 
2006...850MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE 2 TO 4 C BELOW THOSE ON 
MAY 17 2006. 

A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK (SEAESFOTX) IS IN EFFECT FOR RIVERS AND
STREAMS IN THE REGION. AT THIS TIME...THE RIVERS LIKE THE COEUR
D'ALENE...ST JOE...MOYIE...AND SPOKANE LOOK TO HAVE A HEIGHTENED
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING SINCE THE SNOW-PACK IN THE IDAHO PANHANDLE
IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WE WILL ALSO BE
WATCHING THE STEHEKIN...ENTIAT...AND OKANOGAN FOR SIGNIFICANT
RISES...BUT THEY DO NOT APPEAR TO BE IN DANGER OF EXCEEDING FLOOD
STAGE AT THIS TIME. /GKOCH



&&

.AVIATION... 
CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE IDAHO PANHANDLE AND THE 
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS OF WASHINGTON WILL BE DECREASING WITH THE LOSS 
OF SURFACE HEATING THIS EVENING. BETWEEN 02-04Z MOST OF THE CUMULUS 
WILL DIMINISH. THE CLEARING WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS MID AND HIGH 
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM 
FRONT. PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 19Z AND 21Z TOMORROW OVER 
EASTERN WASHINGTON. WENATCHEE AND MOSES LAKE WILL LIKELY BE SHADOWED 
BY THE WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CASCADES...BUT SPOKANE...PULLMAN... 
AND COEUR D'ALENE CAN EXPECT LIGHT RAIN BY 21Z. CEILINGS AND 
VISIBILITIES SHOULD PRIMARILY BE VFR THROUGH 00Z. /GKOCH


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SPOKANE        40  58  42  68  44  76 /  10  30  50  20  10   0 
COEUR D'ALENE  38  59  41  67  43  76 /  10  30  50  30  10   0 
PULLMAN        38  61  44  68  46  72 /  10  20  40  40  10   0 
LEWISTON       43  68  50  74  51  80 /   0  20  30  20  10   0 
COLVILLE       39  60  41  72  43  82 /  10  40  60  20  10   0 
SANDPOINT      37  56  40  64  41  79 /  20  30  50  40  10   0 
KELLOGG        36  57  40  62  41  75 /  20  20  60  60  10   0 
MOSES LAKE     43  68  44  77  48  83 /   0  20  20  10   0   0 
WENATCHEE      48  67  50  74  53  86 /   0  20  20  10   0   0 
OMAK           42  61  43  76  46  87 /   0  40  40  10  10   0 

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

$$