Western Washington

483 
FXUS66 KSEW 022228
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
330 PM PDT THU JUL 2 2009 

.SYNOPSIS...SUNNY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF 
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH 
DAYTIME HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 80S TO LOWER 90S FRIDAY AND 
INDEPENDENCE DAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL 
BRING COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SHOWERS 
MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...COPIOUS SUNSHINE PREVALENT ACROSS THE EVERGREEN STATE 
TODAY. THE AIR MASS ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON REMAINS CONSIDERABLY 
DRY WITH NO MOISTURE IN SITE. HIGH PRES OFFSHORE CONTINUES TO BUILD 
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH THE GULF OF 
ALASKA...DEFLECTING A SYSTEM ALONG 140W NORTHWARD. AT THE 
SURFACE...GENERALLY SEEING LIGHT NLY WINDS WITH THE INVERTED TROUGH 
IN PLACE. WINDS HAVE SWITCHED TO NWLY ALONG THE COAST AS THE SFC 
TROUGH AXIS HAS SHIFTED FARTHER INLAND. THIS IS HELPING TO KEEP 
TEMPS DOWN WITH LOWER 70S AT BOTH HOQUIAM AND QUILLAYUTE. ELSEWHERE 
TEMPS ARE RUNNING ABOUT 2 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE YESTERDAYS READINGS 
WITH WIDESPREAD 70S TO LOWER 80S SO FAR.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AND INLAND OVER THE 
NEXT FEW DAYS...PROLONGING THE WARM AND DRY SPELL ACROSS THE REGION. 
THE RELATIVELY COOL SPOTS WILL BE THE COAST/STRAIT AND SAN JUANS  
WITH INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AS THE INVERTED TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF 
THE CASCADES. THE I-5 CORRIDOR WILL STILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL 
CONDITIONS ON FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S...ABOUT 10 TO 
15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. 

WEATHER FOR THE 4TH WILL LOOK QUITE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY. IN FACT...THE 
UPPER RIDGE MAY AMPLIFY A BIT OVER WA AS AN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO 
DIG OFFSHORE. DESPITE ONSHORE FLOW MODEL PROGS STILL POINT TOWARD 
WARM WEATHER FOR THE INTERIOR WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF 80S ACROSS THE 
REGION. 

THE UPPER TROUGH OFFSHORE WILL APPROACH THE COAST ON SUNDAY HELPING 
TO KNOCK TEMPS DOWN A FEW MORE DEGREES. HOWEVER DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW 
MAY TAP INTO SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM ORE AND SPREAD IT INTO WA. 
THE AIR MASS WILL BE QUITE UNSTABLE WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES 
ACROSS THE CASCADES AND LI NEAR ZERO. THE TROUGH MAY ALSO SEND A 
VORT MAX INTO THE REGION DURING PEAK HEATING...INCREASING THE THREAT 
FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CASCADES. 

NEEDLESS TO SAY...WITH DRY FUELS ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON THE FIRE 
WEATHER THREAT REMAINS ELEVATED. ANY TRIGGER MAY LEAD TO DANGEROUS 
CONDITIONS THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THUS RED FLAG WARNINGS HAVE BEEN 
ISSUED FOR THE CWA...SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW. 33

.LONG TERM...A RELIEF FROM THE HEAT IS IN SIGHT NEXT WEEK AS THE 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CLOSES OFF AND LINGERS OVER THE PAC NW. FORECAST 
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 
NORMAL WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S THROUGHOUT THE 
PERIOD. SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS...BUT DID 
ADD CHANCE POPS FOR THE LOWLANDS ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS 
SWINGS THROUGH. 33 
 
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WITH THE CURRENT AND FORECAST WEATHER PATTERN OF A 
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND INVERTED THERMAL TROUGH AT THE 
SURFACE...WESTERN WASHINGTONS VERY WARM AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED 
TO LAST THROUGH THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND. THIS COMBINED WITH 
UNSEASONABLY DRY FUELS...PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A RED FLAG WARNING 
THIS AFTERNOON,. THE RED FLAG WARNING IS VALID FROM NOON FRIDAY 
THROUGH MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. IT IS FOR VERY WARM...VERY DRY AND 
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. EVERY ONE NEEDS TO BE EXTREMELY CAREFUL WITH 
FIREWORKS AND CAMPFIRES THIS WEEKEND. ALSO...USE YOUR VEHICLES 
ASHTRAY.  PRANGE

&&

.AVIATION...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OFFSHORE...WITH WEST TO 
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER WASHINGTON...WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH 
FRIDAY. THE AIR MASS IS DRY AND STABLE. THERMAL LOW PRESSURE ALONG 
THE COAST IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE CASCADES 
FRIDAY. TYPICAL DIURNAL WIND PATTERNS SHOULD BE EXPECTED AT THE 
TERMINALS.

.KSEA...VFR. NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS 7-10 KT CONTINUING THROUGH 03Z 
...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND BECOMING NORTHEAST TO 3-5 KT THROUGH 
15Z. COLMAN

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK THERMALLY-INDUCED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE 
COAST WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE AREA 
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING 
NORTHWEST SEA BREEZES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND WEST BREEZES 
THROUGH THE STRAIT.  

EASTERLY SURFACE GRADIENTS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO TURN ONSHORE THIS 
AFTERNOON...BUT ARE AT LEAST WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY AND STILL EXPECT 
A MORE TYPICAL LATE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE LATER THIS EVENING THAN WE 
SAW YESTERDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY BRIEFLY PUSH THE CENTRAL AND EAST 
STRAIT UP TO THE 10 TO 20 KT RANGE...BUT BELOW SMALL CRAFT SPEEDS.

OTHERWISE A RATHER STABLE PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH JUST A 
GRADUAL TRANSITION OVER THE PERIOD TO A MORE WESTERLY SURFACE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT. BY MONDAY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED 
TO BRUSH THE COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A TRANSITION TO SOUTH AND 
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID-WEEK. COLMAN

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF WESTERN WA THROUGH        
     MIDNIGHT SUN NIGHT. 
PZ...NONE.

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

Southwestern Washington and Western Oregon

378 
FXUS66 KPQR 030330
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
822 PM PDT THU JUL  2 2009

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN
WILL BRING THE WARMEST WEATHER OF THE YEAR AS WE GO INTO THE FOURTH
OF JULY WEEKEND. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN THE 
WEEKEND FOR A SLOW COOL DOWN AS WE GO INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS. THE MAIN WEATHER MESSAGE FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS
THE WARM WEATHER THAT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE 4TH OF
JULY. EXPECT VALLEY TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S FRI AND
AGAIN ON SAT. THE COAST RANGE AND FOOTHILLS WILL ALSO BE QUITE WARM
WITH READINGS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW FRI AND
SAT WILL INCREASE THE MARINE CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST...BUT THE MARINE
AIR WONT PENETRATE INLAND PAST THE COASTAL STRIP. THE COAST WILL BE
QUITE PLEASANT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FOR
THOSE WANTING A REPRIEVE FROM THE WARM WEATHER. WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO LAST INTO SAT...EXTENDED THE CURRENT HEAT
ADVISORY INTO THE EVENING OF THE 4TH OF JULY.

MODELS STILL SHOW MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WORKING IT WAY NORTHWARD 
OVER THE CASCADES ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVE FOR SLIGHT CHANCE OF 
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. 

.LONG TERM...THE 18Z GFS RUN IS QUITE A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN 
PREVIOUS RUNS WITH THE SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING 
TROUGH ON SUN. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR INCREASED CONVECTIVE 
POTENTIAL SUN EVE. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE 
ACROSS THE AREA THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING COOLER 
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT 
WEEK. TW 
&&

.AVIATION...CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. HOWEVER...SOME PATCHY FOG AND LOW 
STRATUS EXPECTED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST DEVELOPING AFTER 10Z FOR 
LOCAL IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS BUT 
GRADIENT IS WEAKER OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS SO WILL DROP THE SMALL 
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS THERE.  SEAS ARE NOT TOO HIGH BUT WITH 
SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVES SEAS CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN CHOPPY UNTIL THE 
WINDS EASE LATE TONIGHT FOR CONTINUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR 
HAZARDOUS SEAS. LESS WIND AND CHOPPY SEAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS 
THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND AND HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PACIFIC 
WEAKENS. 

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR/WA...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER	     
	 TO CASCADE HEAD UNTIL 11 PM TONIGHT.
	SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER 
	TO FLORENCE UNTIL 11 PM TONIGHT.

&&


$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.

Southeastern Washington and Northeastern Oregon

274 
FXUS66 KPDT 030225
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
730 PM PDT THU JUL 2 2009

.UPDATE...VERY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO TONIGHTS GRIDS. 
THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON HAVE DIMINISHED IN 
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. BUT CANNOT YET RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY THAT 
THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THIS 
EVENING. ANY STORMS THAT DO MOVE INTO THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 
SEVERE LIMITS...AND WILL LIKELY PRODUCE VERY LITTLE RAIN.  82

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 PM PDT THU JUL 2 2009/ 

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...SATELLITE WATER VAPOR 
LOOP SHOWS MID LEVEL MONSOON MOISTURE HAS ENTERED CENTRAL AND 
NORTHEAST OREGON. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA 
COAST WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL 
OREGON FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS MOISTURE INCREASES THE 
BUOYANCY BETWEEN 10000-20000 FT MSL AND WILL PRODUCE ELEVATED 
INSTABILITY OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON EACH AFTERNOON AND 
EVENING FOR ISOLATED...MAINLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY. 

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOP AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING IN THE JOHN DAY VALLEY...THE SOUTHERN BLUE 
MOUNTAINS AND THE ELKHORN AND WALLOWA MOUNTAINS. THIS IS FARTHER 
NORTH THAN WE HAD FORECAST THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON SO I 
HAVE INTRODUCED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WX GRIDS FOR THE 
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS...THE 
GRANDE RONDE VALLEY AND MOST OF WALLOWA COUNTY.

MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY INDICATED AN UPPER LEVEL POTENTIAL 
VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL OREGON THIS 
EVENING. THIS ENERGY IS PROVIDING DYNAMIC FORCING...WHICH IS 
TRIGGERING THE THUNDERSTORM. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS 
EVENING IN CENTRAL OREGON AND THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST OREGON. THE 
SAME SCENARIO WILL OCCUR AGAIN ON FRIDAY WITH THE NORTHERN BOUNDARY 
OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVANCING NORTHWARD A TAD BUT REMAINING IN 
CENTRAL OREGON...THUS ALLOWING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO 
DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS. 

A SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL PRODUCE A WARMING 
TREND WHICH WILL PUSH HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S 
TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH HIGHS IN THE MOUNTAINS IN THE UPPER 70S TO 
UPPER 80S. HIGHS FOR TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES 
ABOVE NORMAL.  POLAN

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.  THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
OFF THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL TRAVERSE EASTWARD...AND A SHORTWAVE 
WILL SWING E-NE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW LATE SUNDAY.  MODELS HAVE HAD 
SOME DIFFICULTY WITH THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED 
MARINE PUSH.  TIMING IS CRUCIAL TO DETERMINE THE STRENGTH OF 
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP IN OUR FORECAST AREA AND WHETHER SUNDAY 
WILL BE A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY DEPENDING ON WINDS AND 
HUMIDITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE MARINE PUSH.  AT THIS TIME...MODELS 
ARE SHOWING THE MARINE PUSH LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND 
THE STRONGEST ASCENT ALONG THE CASCADES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.  WILL 
HIGHLIGHT THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES IN THE 
HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK WHERE THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.  WILL 
HOLD OFF MENTIONING ANY WIND/RH CONCERNS IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN ZONES 
UNTIL THERE IS A BETTER FEEL FOR THE TIMING OF THE MARINE PUSH.

THE COOL MARINE AIR WILL SPREAD EAST OF THE CASCADES SUNDAY NIGHT 
AND MONDAY.  MEANWHILE...THE PARENT UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INLAND 
RESULTING IN AN UPPER TROUGH THAT REMAINS PARKED OVER THE PACIFIC NW 
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  THERE WILL BE A 
SIGNIFICANT DROP IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FROM SUNDAY TO 
MONDAY...AND TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE 
TUES-THURS.  A SERIES OF WAVES WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE TO A 
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.  JOHNSON

AVIATION...00Z TAFS.  RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM KLAMATH/LAKE COUNTIES NORTHEAST TO 
WALLOWA COUNTY.  THERE ARE CB CLOUDS IN THE VICINITY OF KRDM THAT 
WILL LIKELY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT.  HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS 
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT.  WINDS 
WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15 KTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  SIMILAR 
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND 
NE OREGON WITH TSTMS POSSIBLE NEAR KRDM IN THE AFTERNOON.  JOHNSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  55  97  60  95 /   0   0   0  10 
ALW  57  96  63  95 /   0   0   0  10 
PSC  55  99  60 100 /   0   0   0   0 
YKM  58  96  64  96 /   0   0   0   0 
HRI  53  98  58  98 /   0   0   0  10 
ELN  54  96  59  95 /   0   0   0   0 
RDM  46  94  47  96 /  20  10  10  10 
LGD  52  91  54  91 /  20  20  10  20 
GCD  52  94  55  94 /  20  20  20  20 
DLS  56  98  61  97 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

THREAT INDEX
FRIDAY : GREEN
SATURDAY : GREEN
SUNDAY : YELLOW

GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

82/

Northeastern Washington and Northern Idaho

536 
FXUS66 KOTX 022314
AFDOTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
414 PM PDT THU JUL 2 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL OVER THE 
INLAND NORTHWEST THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. BREEZY
WINDS WITH THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT BREAKS DOWN THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE.
THEN A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER THE REGION WITH
COOLER AND SHOWERY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT...IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY AND MILD AS A FLAT RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE INLAND NORTHWEST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL LINGER
OFF THE FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST...WHILE MONSOONAL MOISTURE
STREAMS TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST FROM THE DESERT SW INTO EASTERN
OREGON...AND REMAINING SOUTH OF THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AND NORTHERLY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES IN BRITISH
COLUMBIA.

BY FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE FLAT RIDGE GRADUALLY
AMPLIFIES. WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL SLIDE IN FROM THE
PACIFIC ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER...ONE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
ANOTHER SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THESE FEATURES COUPLED WITH A SHALLOW
LAYER OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASED INSTABILITY MAY BE
ENOUGH TO SPROUT SOME CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
THE NAM SEEMS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE AND UNSTABLE THAN THE
GFS...BASED ON HIGHER DEWPOINTS. BUT EVEN WITH THE SHIFT OF THE
LOW LEVEL WINDS TO THE SOUTH WITH SPEEDS OF LESS THAN 10
KTS...THIS DOESN'T SEEM STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE ADVECTION OF
MOISTURE TO REACH THE NAM LEVELS. SO WILL DOWNPLAY THE NAM
INSTABILITY AND LEAN ON IT FOR THE LOCATION OF THE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. NOT TOO CONFIDENT ON SHOWER FORMATION
FOR THE NORTHERN TIER ZONES DUE TO SHALLOWNESS OF THE MOISTURE
AND THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH THE PRESENCE OF
THE NORTHERLY FLOW. MEANWHILE...THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY
CREEP NORTHWARD FROM EASTERN OREGON...AND AFFECT THE BLUE
MOUNTAINS AND THE SOUTHERN IDAHO PANHANDLE. THIS WILL LEAD TO MORE
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AND THE SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE CASCADES AND
SETS UP IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND THE SURFACE BASED HEAT TROUGH IN
THE LEE OF THE CASCADES. IT WILL BE QUITE HOT...ANTICIPATE
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THEN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF A PACIFIC TROUGH. SUNDAY WILL START OFF QUITE
WARM...AND THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK BEFORE THE COLD FRONT
ARRIVES. THE MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO THE SOUTH AND ADVECTS
MONSOONAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE CASCADES AND THE COLUMBIA
BASIN. TIMING IS STILL A LITTLE FUZZY...BUT ANTICIPATE A THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO SPREAD FROM THE CASCADES INTO NORTHEAST
WASHINGTON AND PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS STARTING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT. AGREE WITH THE HANDLE OF MOISTURE
AND WINDS AS SEEN IN GFS...ECMWF AND CANADIAN OPPOSED TO THE NAM
ATTM. ANTICIPATE THE MAIN PUSH OF THE FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS ESPECIALLY IN THE
CASCADE VALLEYS AND WESTERN BASIN. THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS AND
INCREASED WINDS WILL HEIGHTEN CONCERNS FOR THE FIRE USERS IN THE
REGION...AND WILL UPDATE THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. /RFOX.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF 
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL SWEEP INLAND AND TAKE UP RESIDENCE OVER 
THE INLAND NORTHWEST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL MEAN A 
CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN TO COOLER AND UNSETTLED FOR MUCH OF 
THE WORKWEEK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG 
WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS...WILL BE ON MONDAY AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WITH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH A BETTER CHANCE IN THE MOUNTAINS FAVORABLE TO WESTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW. THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL KEEP
MAX TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAYS
READINGS...CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS. THE COOLING TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK AS THE UPPER LOW KEEPS CLOUDS
AND SCATTERED PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION. /KELCH

&&

.AVIATION...
ANTICIPATE GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND VFR CONDITIONS. /EK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SPOKANE        57  89  59  91  61  92 /   0   0   0   0   0  10 
COEUR D'ALENE  55  89  56  90  57  92 /   0   0   0   0   0  10 
PULLMAN        49  87  54  90  56  90 /   0   0   0   0   0  10 
LEWISTON       60  94  63  97  64  98 /   0   0   0   0   0  10 
COLVILLE       50  95  53  95  54  96 /   0   0   0   0   0  10 
SANDPOINT      45  88  48  89  53  91 /   0   0   0   0  10  10 
KELLOGG        55  85  55  87  57  91 /   0   0   0   0   0  10 
MOSES LAKE     57  95  60  96  62  98 /   0   0   0   0   0  10 
WENATCHEE      63  94  65  96  69  96 /   0   0   0   0   0  10 
OMAK           58  95  59  97  62  96 /   0   0   0   0   0  10 

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
WA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT PDT SUNDAY NIGHT 
     FOR EAST SLOPES NORTHERN CASCADES.

&&

$$