[ W WA | SW WA and W OR | SE WA and NE OR | NE WA and N ID ]

Western Washington


061 
FXUS66 KSEW 160953
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
252 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO WESTERN 
WASHINGTON TODAY ALONG WITH AREAS OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS. AN UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY 
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH SHOWERS MOST LIKELY ON THURSDAY. AN 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND FOR WARMER 
AND DRY WEATHER. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...A SW MARINE PUSH OVERNIGHT HAS BROUGHT AREAS OF 
STRATUS INLAND THIS MORNING. STRATUS REACHED SHELTON AROUND MIDNIGHT 
AND WITH KSHN WINDS BLOWING SW 15-25KT SHOULD SPREAD THE LOW CLOUDS 
ACROSS MOST OF PUGET SOUND THIS MORNING. THE SMALL UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH THAT HAS TRIGGERED THE MARINE PUSH WAS CENTERED OVER ASTORIA 
AT 09Z/2 AM AND WAS HEADED QUICKLY NORTH. A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS 
WAS ALONG THE N OREGON COAST ALONG WITH A SOLO LIGHTNING STRIKE AT 
0745Z. THIS SHOWER AREA IS SMALL ENOUGH TO FIZZLE OUT THIS MORNING 
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES DEEPER INTO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE 
CENTERED OVER THE PACNW...BUT STILL BEARS WATCHING. 

THE NAM12 AND ARW-W BOUNDARY LAYER RH FORECASTS SEEMED A REASONABLE 
INDICATOR FOR STRATUS COVERAGE TODAY. LOW CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY 
BLANKET PUGET SOUND THIS MORNING WITH A LITTLE BIT SPREADING E OF 
LAKE WASHINGTON...BUT SHOULD BURN OFF OVER THE SOUND THIS AFTERNOON. 
HOWEVER THE STRATUS WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH ALONG THE COAST AND ONSHORE 
FLOW PERSISTENT ENOUGH SO THAT STRATUS WILL PROBABLY NOT BURN OFF 
OVER THE LOWER CHEHALIS VALLEY TODAY. THE RATHER SPARSE MID AND HIGH 
CLOUDS FROM THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL NOT ADD MUCH TO THE OVERALL 
CLOUD COVER. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY TODAY...WITH STRONGER 
COOLING EXPECTED IN THE STRATUS AREAS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST 
AND OVER THE LOWER CHEHALIS.

MAX TEMPS WEDNESDAY WERE ALSO TROUBLESOME. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE 
ABOUT AS STRONG TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE MARINE LAYER WILL 
BE DEEPER AND WILL SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF W WA...BUT INSTABILITY FROM 
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM OFFSHORE SHOULD HELP THE 
CLOUD COVER BREAK UP A BIT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FOR MAX TEMPS THIS 
MEANS THAT LOCATIONS TODAY WHERE THE STRATUS IS MOST PERSISTENT 
COULD VERY WELL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER ON WEDNESDAY GIVEN A BETTER MIXED 
MARINE LAYER. LOCATIONS THAT ARE STRATUS FREE TODAY...MAY END UP 
BEING A LITTLE COOLER BECAUSE OF THE GREATER COVERAGE OF CLOUDS ON 
WEDNESDAY. 

OVERALL THE MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OFFSHORE ALONG 140W EJECTING E THIS WEEK. 
SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY SPREAD TO THE COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING 
AND THEN INLAND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS 
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY MORNING FOR 
THE GREATEST SHOWER POTENTIAL AND LIKELY POPS. THURSDAY SHOULD BE 
THE COOLEST DAY WITH THE COOLER AIR MASS FROM THE TROUGH RIGHT 
OVERHEAD. KAM

.LONG TERM...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER E WA THURSDAY 
EVENING WITH DIMINISHING SHOWERS OVER W WA. HOWEVER ANOTHER WEAKER 
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE WILL PROLONG THE CHANCE 
OF SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY EVENING. GFS AND ECMWF AGREE WELL ON BUILDING 
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE JUST OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT THEN MOVING IT 
INLAND ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF E-NE LOW LEVEL 
OFFSHORE FLOW...WHICH COULD PUSH MAX TEMPS BACK UP INTO THE 80S THIS 
WEEKEND...PARTICULARLY ON SUNDAY. BOTH MODELS HAVE THE RIDGE 
SHIFTING E OVER W MT SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING A WEAKENING FRONT TO 
APPROACH THE COAST ON MONDAY. HOWEVER THE FRONT COULD BE WEAK AND 
SLOW ENOUGH TO EKE OUT A MOSTLY SUNNY DRY MONDAY AS WELL. KAM

&&

.AVIATION...LOW CLOUDS COAST AND AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS IN PUGET SOUND 
THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE MARINE STRATUS MAY PUSH EAST IN THE STRAIT 
THIS MORNING BUT MORE LIKELY WILL HOLD OFF TIL THE STRONGER PUSH 
THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE AREAS THAT DO NOT SEE MORNING LOW 
CLOUDS...MAINLY NORTH OF EVERETT...THERE WILL ONLY BE SOME MID AND 
HIGH CLOUDS. THE RIDGE IS MOVING EAST AND THERE IS SW FLOW ALOFT. 
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT AND WED MORNING.

KSEA...MORNING LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED...THEN JUST SOME MID AND HIGH 
CLOUDS. WITH ONSHORE FLOW THE BREEZE WILL REMAIN S TO SW.

&&

.MARINE...ONSHORE FLOW...AND A DECENT WLY PUSH IS LIKELY IN THE 
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTER THE MARINE 
PUSH TODAY THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT AS WEATHER SYSTEMS 
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER WEAK.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA 
FROM NOON TODAY TIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT 
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML







[ W WA | SW WA and W OR | SE WA and NE OR | NE WA and N ID ]

Southwestern Washington and Western Oregon


770 
FXUS66 KPQR 161015 CCB
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
315 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAD BEEN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST 
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS WEAKENED AND IS MOVING EAST AS A 
CIRCULATION ALONG THE SOUTH WASHINGTON AND NORTH OREGON COASTS THAT 
IS PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MOVES NORTH OF OUR 
FORECAST AREA LATER THIS MORNING. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL LOW IS CENTERED 
WELL OFF THE SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. SOME 
WEAK ENERGY MAY SPREAD NORTH INTO OUR AREA FROM THE LOW THE 
REMAINDER OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT MORE SUBSTANTIAL ENERGY WILL 
LIKELY SPREAD IN LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY FOR A BETTER 
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE LOW IS HEADING INLAND A 
BIT TO OUR SOUTH...SO THAT MAY LIMIT THE COVERAGE AND QPF SOME. A 
WEAKENING SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE COAST FRIDAY BUT WEAKEN 
CONSIDERABLY AS IT TRIES TO MOVE ONSHORE DUE TO A BUILDING UPPER 
RIDGE. THEN THE MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER 
RIDGE BUILDING SIGNIFICANTLY THIS WEEKEND FOR DRY AND WARMER 
WEATHER...AND POSSIBLY APPROACHING 90 IN THE INLAND VALLEYS AGAIN.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THE UPPER RIDGE OF THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS WEAKENED AND
ITS AXIS HAS MOVED EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL
CIRCULATION WAS ALONG THE NORTH OREGON AND SOUTH WASHINGTON COASTS
EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WAS PRODUCING AN AREA OF SHOWERS ALONG THE
COAST. THERE WAS ONE LIGHTNING STRIKE SO FAR NEAR CANNON BEACH. 
THERE WERE ALSO A COUPLE OF CELLS THAT MOVED NORTH ALONG THE COWLITZ 
AND SKAMANIA COUNTY BORDERS AS WELL. WILL KEEP A FEW SHOWERS OR 
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR EARLY THIS MORNING MOSTLY NORTH OF 
THE COLUMBIA RIVER...EXCEPT WILL INCLUDE A SMALL AREA SOUTH OF THE 
COLUMBIA RIVER ALONG THE COAST...BEFORE THE CIRCULATION MOVES NORTH 
OF OUR AREA NEAR OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE.

THIS CIRCULATION HAS SPREAD MARINE CLOUDS NORTH ALONG THE COAST THAT
MIGHT PRODUCE PATCHY DRIZZLE ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING. THE LOW
CLOUDS WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO PUSH INTO THE INTERIOR THIS MORNING AS
WELL. NEVERTHELESS...EXPECT THE INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD DROP
TEMPS INLAND TODAY DOWN AROUND 80 OR SO.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LOW IS LOCATED OFF THE SOUTHERN OREGON AND 
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTS. THE REMAINDER OF TODAY SOME WEAK ENERGY 
WILL SPREAD NORTH BUT IS MOSTLY OFF THE COAST...AND IS LIKELY 
REPRESENTED BY THE HIGHER CLOUD BAND NEAR THE SOUTHERN LANE COUNTY 
BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING. THE DEEPER MOISTURE LOOKS TO STAY 
OFFSHORE...SO WILL KEEP THE REST OF TODAY ON THE DRY SIDE.

THE LOW STARTS TO MAKE A MOVE TOWARD THE COAST LATER TONIGHT AND ON
WEDNESDAY AS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORT WAVE SWINGS AROUND THE BASE OF
THE LOW AND APPROACHES THE COAST FROM THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. OUR FORECAST RAMPS UP THE POPS MAINLY INTO THE CHANCE
CATEGORY AS THIS OCCURS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE
OREGON CASCADES LATE WEDNESDAY BUT THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW DEEP
THE MARINE AIR ENDS UP BEING INLAND.

THE LOW SPLITS SOMEWHAT AS IT MOVES ONSHORE AND TO THE EAST ON
THURSDAY...WITH THE MAIN CIRCULATION MOVING ONSHORE TO OUR SOUTH.
CHANCE POPS STILL LOOK REASONABLE INTO THURSDAY.

TEMPS BY THURSDAY MAY EASE DOWN TO SEASONAL NORMALS...WHICH HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE MID 70S IN THE INTERIOR. 

SMOKE FROM THE 36 PIT WILD FIRE SOUTHEAST OF ESTACADA WILL MOVE OFF
TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEN MORE TO THE
EAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY.
HOPEFULLY HIGHER HUMIDITIES AND LOWER TEMPS THE NEXT FEW DAYS HELP
FIRE FIGHTERS. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO 
BUILD AGAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND CAUSES THE NEXT SYSTEM TO 
MOSTLY FALL APART AS IT APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY... 
ALLOWING TEMPS TO BEGIN TO RECOVER FROM THE EXPECTED VALUES 
THURSDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER RIDGE 
WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IN EARNEST OVER THE 
WEEKEND...WITH ANOTHER THERMAL TROUGH BUILDING UP THE COAST FOR MORE 
SUBSTANTIAL WARMING. TEMPS INLAND WILL HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE OF 
APPROACHING 90 AGAIN INLAND. WE MAY SEE SOME MODERATION AGAIN EARLY 
NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW ALOFT TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY AND ALLOWS ONSHORE 
FLOW TO DEVELOP...BUT ANY CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL 
THE MIDDLE OR LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK AT THE EARLIEST. TOLLESON
&&

.AVIATION...A PASSING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY TRIGGER
ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO REACH THE GROUND.
OTHERWISE...THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT S/SW ONSHORE WINDS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. MVFR STRATUS REMAINS ALONG THE
COAST WITH WIDESPREAD VFR OVER THE INTERIOR. EXPECT THE COASTAL
STRATUS TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. IT IS POSSIBLE...BUT
LOOKING LESS LIKELY AT THIS POINT...THAT SOME PATCHY MVFR STRATUS MAY
ALSO FORM IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.

EXPECT THE STRATUS TO SCATTER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PREDOMINANTLY VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EVENING. MVFR/IFR STRATUS MAY
REFORM ALONG THE COAST DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING...BUT THE
INTERIOR WILL LIKELY STAY VFR THROUGH 12Z. 

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THROUGH TONIGHT AS VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS
DRIFT OVERHEAD IN THE S TO SW FLOW ALOFT. PYLE
&&

.MARINE...FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER THE WATERS FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. WEAK LOW PRES OVER THE NE PAC WILL MAINTAIN A S TO SW
WIND FOR NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BUT GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS. THERE WILL
BE A MIX OF WAVE TRAINS WITH VARYING PERIODS...OUT OF THE NW W AND
SW. EXPECT OVERALL WAVE HEIGHTS TO INCREASE GRADUALLY TODAY AND
REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 7 FT RANGE FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THU. 

HIGH PRES WILL REBUILD OVER THE WATERS FRI AND SAT...WITH ANOTHER
THERMAL LOW PRES OVER NW CALIF. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF N
WINDS TO THE WATERS...POSSIBLY REACHING NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS AT TIMES. PYLE
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$


INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA    
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND	
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON 
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS 
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.

[ W WA | SW WA and W OR | SE WA and NE OR | NE WA and N ID ]

Southeastern Washington and Northeastern Oregon


909 
FXUS66 KPDT 161532
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
832 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER 
THE REGION WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST. THE TROUGH 
WILL MOVE CLOSER TO THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY LEADING TO INCREASING 
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCE WILL BE LIMITED 
TO THE CASCADES AND EAST SLOPES LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING 
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM MOUNT JEFFERSON SOUTHWARD 
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES. TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL 
CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL BY ABOUT 10 DEGREES. 


&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 300 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014/ 

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SATELLITE SHOWING AN UPPER 
LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH 
SOME CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SHOWERS. AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH 
EXPECT CLEARING SKIES. SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH A LARGE SCALE UPPER 
LOW OFFSHORE. THE AIRMASS IS WARM WITH 850MB TEMPS NEAR 21C. HIGHS 
TODAY WILL BE IN THE 80S WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE 
UPPER LOW WILL BE APPROACHING THE WEST COAST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL 
BRING INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW 
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION STAYING WEST OF THE CASCADES THROUGH THE 
DAY. ANOTHER DAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A WARM AIRMASS SUPPORTING 
HIGHS INTO THE 80S. THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA 
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS 
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.  94

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
WHICH MOVED INLAND DURING THE DAYTIME ON THURSDAY WILL HAVE MOVED 
INTO IDAHO/MONTANA THURSDAY NIGHT THUS ALLOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH 
PRESSURE OFFSHORE TO BEGIN BUILDING EASTWARD OVER THE PACIFIC 
NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY. THE RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH 
THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH MONDAY AS WELL FOR DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS 
WITH DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  
POLAN

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 
HOURS. THERE WILL BE A LOT OF HIGH CLOUDS BETWEEN 150-250 WHICH MAY 
LIMIT HEATING ON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND 15 KTS OR LESS 
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.  POLAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  86  56  86  57 /  10   0   0  10 
ALW  85  60  87  61 /  10   0   0  10 
PSC  86  53  87  59 /  10   0   0  10 
YKM  86  55  84  57 /   0   0  10  20 
HRI  87  52  87  57 /  10   0   0  10 
ELN  88  58  85  58 /  10   0  10  30 
RDM  85  45  83  48 /   0   0  10  20 
LGD  88  51  88  52 /  10  10   0  20 
GCD  88  53  88  51 /  10  10  10  20 
DLS  88  56  84  60 /   0  10  10  30 

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/78/78






[ W WA | SW WA and W OR | SE WA and NE OR | NE WA and N ID ]

Northeastern Washington and Northern Idaho


191 
FXUS66 KOTX 161158
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
457 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Today into Wednesday will feel like summer with afternoon
temperatures in the 80s. Cooler, more seasonal temperatures will
follow the passage of a weak cold front on Wednesday night.
Thursday will be locally breezy with a chance for light rain
showers. Sunshine and light winds will return on Friday, and look
for warm temperatures once again this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Wednesday night...Ridge deamplification and
propagation of the ridge axis eastward continues during this time
interval. This opens up the door for approach of shortwave
disturbances from the South and Southwest. Elevated moderate
instability and moisture merit continued mention of sprinkles in
the forecast roughly south and east of a line from Ritzville to
Plummer. Wednesday into Wednesday night the ridge is displaced
even further east in Montana and the flow becomes more southerly
as an offshore low pressure system works its way to northwest and
towards the coast. This necessitates continued mention of showers
along the cascades and up north near the British Columbia border.
As to be expected with the loss of the ridge a slight cooling
trend with increase cloud cover remains. Additionally the winds
should prevail more from the south tonight and Wednesday. /Pelatti

Thursday: The most active weather day of the week should be
Thursday following the passage of a weak cold front Wednesday
night. It is tough to get too excited about much significant
shower activity Thursday. The 0z models agree that the incoming
500mb trough will move inland in pieces with the low amplitude
northern branch shortwave tracking along the U.S/Canadian border
and the moisture rich southern branch wave moving through
California. The NAM and GFS forecast the best combination of mid-
level instability and surface based CAPE over the Idaho Panhandle
Thursday afternoon. Our forecast includes a slight chance of
thunderstorms for places like Bonners Ferry, Sandpoint, Kellogg,
and St Maries. Marginal instability and weak deep layer shear
suggest that any convective cells will be rather unorganized. At
this time, the threat of strong storms looks to be very low.

Breezy west winds should develop Thursday afternoon through the
Cascade gaps, Columbia Basin, Palouse and West Plains. 850mb winds
in the 20-25kt range suggest that gusts will top out close to
25mph in the afternoon and early evening.

Friday: A transition to a drier northwest flow in the 700-500mb
layer is expected to occur on Friday and Saturday. There may be
enough shallow mid-level instability on Friday for widely
scattered showers over the mountains of the Idaho Panhandle and
along the Cascade Crest. Elsewhere, fair weather cumulus and near
normal temperatures should be the norm on Friday.

Saturday through Monday: A return of high pressure ridging over
the weekend will bring sunshine, warm temperatures, and light
winds to the region. The dry air mass, light winds, and
increasingly long nights will promote large diurnal temperature
swings. Chilly nights and warm afternoons. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Increasing moisture from the south will result in some
mid to high level cloud cover above 12 kft agl. These clouds may
produce very light showers or sprinkles. Near KEAT and KLWS and
KPUW this morning, but there is a better chance of just some
virga. Skies will remain hazy due to smoke from fires in central
WA and OR. This may result reduced vis down into MVFR category at
KPUW. 


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        86  56  83  57  78  56 /  10  10  10  10  20  20 
Coeur d'Alene  87  52  83  53  78  55 /  10  10  10  10  30  20 
Pullman        86  53  84  53  79  53 /  10  10  10  10  20  10 
Lewiston       92  61  89  61  83  59 /  10  10  10  10  20  10 
Colville       89  50  83  51  80  51 /   0  10  10  20  20  20 
Sandpoint      83  47  78  48  75  52 /  10  10  10  10  30  30 
Kellogg        84  54  80  53  74  52 /  10  10  10  10  30  30 
Moses Lake     89  56  86  58  82  56 /   0  10  10  10  10  10 
Wenatchee      88  61  85  62  80  60 /   0  10  10  20  10  10 
Omak           90  55  86  57  80  55 /   0  10  10  20  20  10 

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$


[ W WA | SW WA and W OR | SE WA and NE OR | NE WA and N ID ]

Back to U.W. Weather Page