[
W WA |
SW WA and W OR |
SE WA and NE OR |
NE WA and N ID
]
Western Washington
483
FXUS66 KSEW 022228
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
330 PM PDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS...SUNNY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 80S TO LOWER 90S FRIDAY AND
INDEPENDENCE DAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BRING COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SHOWERS
MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...COPIOUS SUNSHINE PREVALENT ACROSS THE EVERGREEN STATE
TODAY. THE AIR MASS ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON REMAINS CONSIDERABLY
DRY WITH NO MOISTURE IN SITE. HIGH PRES OFFSHORE CONTINUES TO BUILD
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH THE GULF OF
ALASKA...DEFLECTING A SYSTEM ALONG 140W NORTHWARD. AT THE
SURFACE...GENERALLY SEEING LIGHT NLY WINDS WITH THE INVERTED TROUGH
IN PLACE. WINDS HAVE SWITCHED TO NWLY ALONG THE COAST AS THE SFC
TROUGH AXIS HAS SHIFTED FARTHER INLAND. THIS IS HELPING TO KEEP
TEMPS DOWN WITH LOWER 70S AT BOTH HOQUIAM AND QUILLAYUTE. ELSEWHERE
TEMPS ARE RUNNING ABOUT 2 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE YESTERDAYS READINGS
WITH WIDESPREAD 70S TO LOWER 80S SO FAR.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AND INLAND OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...PROLONGING THE WARM AND DRY SPELL ACROSS THE REGION.
THE RELATIVELY COOL SPOTS WILL BE THE COAST/STRAIT AND SAN JUANS
WITH INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AS THE INVERTED TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF
THE CASCADES. THE I-5 CORRIDOR WILL STILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL
CONDITIONS ON FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S...ABOUT 10 TO
15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
WEATHER FOR THE 4TH WILL LOOK QUITE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY. IN FACT...THE
UPPER RIDGE MAY AMPLIFY A BIT OVER WA AS AN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO
DIG OFFSHORE. DESPITE ONSHORE FLOW MODEL PROGS STILL POINT TOWARD
WARM WEATHER FOR THE INTERIOR WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF 80S ACROSS THE
REGION.
THE UPPER TROUGH OFFSHORE WILL APPROACH THE COAST ON SUNDAY HELPING
TO KNOCK TEMPS DOWN A FEW MORE DEGREES. HOWEVER DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW
MAY TAP INTO SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM ORE AND SPREAD IT INTO WA.
THE AIR MASS WILL BE QUITE UNSTABLE WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ACROSS THE CASCADES AND LI NEAR ZERO. THE TROUGH MAY ALSO SEND A
VORT MAX INTO THE REGION DURING PEAK HEATING...INCREASING THE THREAT
FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CASCADES.
NEEDLESS TO SAY...WITH DRY FUELS ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON THE FIRE
WEATHER THREAT REMAINS ELEVATED. ANY TRIGGER MAY LEAD TO DANGEROUS
CONDITIONS THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THUS RED FLAG WARNINGS HAVE BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE CWA...SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW. 33
.LONG TERM...A RELIEF FROM THE HEAT IS IN SIGHT NEXT WEEK AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CLOSES OFF AND LINGERS OVER THE PAC NW. FORECAST
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS...BUT DID
ADD CHANCE POPS FOR THE LOWLANDS ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
SWINGS THROUGH. 33
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...WITH THE CURRENT AND FORECAST WEATHER PATTERN OF A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND INVERTED THERMAL TROUGH AT THE
SURFACE...WESTERN WASHINGTONS VERY WARM AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TO LAST THROUGH THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND. THIS COMBINED WITH
UNSEASONABLY DRY FUELS...PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A RED FLAG WARNING
THIS AFTERNOON,. THE RED FLAG WARNING IS VALID FROM NOON FRIDAY
THROUGH MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. IT IS FOR VERY WARM...VERY DRY AND
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. EVERY ONE NEEDS TO BE EXTREMELY CAREFUL WITH
FIREWORKS AND CAMPFIRES THIS WEEKEND. ALSO...USE YOUR VEHICLES
ASHTRAY. PRANGE
&&
.AVIATION...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OFFSHORE...WITH WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER WASHINGTON...WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE AIR MASS IS DRY AND STABLE. THERMAL LOW PRESSURE ALONG
THE COAST IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE CASCADES
FRIDAY. TYPICAL DIURNAL WIND PATTERNS SHOULD BE EXPECTED AT THE
TERMINALS.
.KSEA...VFR. NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS 7-10 KT CONTINUING THROUGH 03Z
...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND BECOMING NORTHEAST TO 3-5 KT THROUGH
15Z. COLMAN
&&
.MARINE...A WEAK THERMALLY-INDUCED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
COAST WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
NORTHWEST SEA BREEZES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND WEST BREEZES
THROUGH THE STRAIT.
EASTERLY SURFACE GRADIENTS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO TURN ONSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT ARE AT LEAST WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY AND STILL EXPECT
A MORE TYPICAL LATE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE LATER THIS EVENING THAN WE
SAW YESTERDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY BRIEFLY PUSH THE CENTRAL AND EAST
STRAIT UP TO THE 10 TO 20 KT RANGE...BUT BELOW SMALL CRAFT SPEEDS.
OTHERWISE A RATHER STABLE PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH JUST A
GRADUAL TRANSITION OVER THE PERIOD TO A MORE WESTERLY SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. BY MONDAY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO BRUSH THE COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A TRANSITION TO SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID-WEEK. COLMAN
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF WESTERN WA THROUGH
MIDNIGHT SUN NIGHT.
PZ...NONE.
$$
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE
[
W WA |
SW WA and W OR |
SE WA and NE OR |
NE WA and N ID
]
Southwestern Washington and Western Oregon
378
FXUS66 KPQR 030330
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
822 PM PDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN
WILL BRING THE WARMEST WEATHER OF THE YEAR AS WE GO INTO THE FOURTH
OF JULY WEEKEND. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND FOR A SLOW COOL DOWN AS WE GO INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS. THE MAIN WEATHER MESSAGE FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS
THE WARM WEATHER THAT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE 4TH OF
JULY. EXPECT VALLEY TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S FRI AND
AGAIN ON SAT. THE COAST RANGE AND FOOTHILLS WILL ALSO BE QUITE WARM
WITH READINGS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW FRI AND
SAT WILL INCREASE THE MARINE CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST...BUT THE MARINE
AIR WONT PENETRATE INLAND PAST THE COASTAL STRIP. THE COAST WILL BE
QUITE PLEASANT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FOR
THOSE WANTING A REPRIEVE FROM THE WARM WEATHER. WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO LAST INTO SAT...EXTENDED THE CURRENT HEAT
ADVISORY INTO THE EVENING OF THE 4TH OF JULY.
MODELS STILL SHOW MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WORKING IT WAY NORTHWARD
OVER THE CASCADES ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVE FOR SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.
.LONG TERM...THE 18Z GFS RUN IS QUITE A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS WITH THE SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
TROUGH ON SUN. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR INCREASED CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL SUN EVE. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK. TW
&&
.AVIATION...CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. HOWEVER...SOME PATCHY FOG AND LOW
STRATUS EXPECTED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST DEVELOPING AFTER 10Z FOR
LOCAL IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS BUT
GRADIENT IS WEAKER OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS SO WILL DROP THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS THERE. SEAS ARE NOT TOO HIGH BUT WITH
SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVES SEAS CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN CHOPPY UNTIL THE
WINDS EASE LATE TONIGHT FOR CONTINUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS. LESS WIND AND CHOPPY SEAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND AND HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PACIFIC
WEAKENS.
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR/WA...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER
TO CASCADE HEAD UNTIL 11 PM TONIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER
TO FLORENCE UNTIL 11 PM TONIGHT.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
[
W WA |
SW WA and W OR |
SE WA and NE OR |
NE WA and N ID
]
Southeastern Washington and Northeastern Oregon
274
FXUS66 KPDT 030225
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
730 PM PDT THU JUL 2 2009
.UPDATE...VERY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO TONIGHTS GRIDS.
THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON HAVE DIMINISHED IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. BUT CANNOT YET RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY THAT
THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING. ANY STORMS THAT DO MOVE INTO THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS...AND WILL LIKELY PRODUCE VERY LITTLE RAIN. 82
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 PM PDT THU JUL 2 2009/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...SATELLITE WATER VAPOR
LOOP SHOWS MID LEVEL MONSOON MOISTURE HAS ENTERED CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST OREGON. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL
OREGON FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS MOISTURE INCREASES THE
BUOYANCY BETWEEN 10000-20000 FT MSL AND WILL PRODUCE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR ISOLATED...MAINLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOP AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING IN THE JOHN DAY VALLEY...THE SOUTHERN BLUE
MOUNTAINS AND THE ELKHORN AND WALLOWA MOUNTAINS. THIS IS FARTHER
NORTH THAN WE HAD FORECAST THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON SO I
HAVE INTRODUCED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WX GRIDS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS...THE
GRANDE RONDE VALLEY AND MOST OF WALLOWA COUNTY.
MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY INDICATED AN UPPER LEVEL POTENTIAL
VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL OREGON THIS
EVENING. THIS ENERGY IS PROVIDING DYNAMIC FORCING...WHICH IS
TRIGGERING THE THUNDERSTORM. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING IN CENTRAL OREGON AND THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST OREGON. THE
SAME SCENARIO WILL OCCUR AGAIN ON FRIDAY WITH THE NORTHERN BOUNDARY
OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVANCING NORTHWARD A TAD BUT REMAINING IN
CENTRAL OREGON...THUS ALLOWING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS.
A SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL PRODUCE A WARMING
TREND WHICH WILL PUSH HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S
TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH HIGHS IN THE MOUNTAINS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
UPPER 80S. HIGHS FOR TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. POLAN
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OFF THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL TRAVERSE EASTWARD...AND A SHORTWAVE
WILL SWING E-NE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW LATE SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE HAD
SOME DIFFICULTY WITH THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED
MARINE PUSH. TIMING IS CRUCIAL TO DETERMINE THE STRENGTH OF
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP IN OUR FORECAST AREA AND WHETHER SUNDAY
WILL BE A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY DEPENDING ON WINDS AND
HUMIDITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE MARINE PUSH. AT THIS TIME...MODELS
ARE SHOWING THE MARINE PUSH LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
THE STRONGEST ASCENT ALONG THE CASCADES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES IN THE
HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK WHERE THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. WILL
HOLD OFF MENTIONING ANY WIND/RH CONCERNS IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN ZONES
UNTIL THERE IS A BETTER FEEL FOR THE TIMING OF THE MARINE PUSH.
THE COOL MARINE AIR WILL SPREAD EAST OF THE CASCADES SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. MEANWHILE...THE PARENT UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INLAND
RESULTING IN AN UPPER TROUGH THAT REMAINS PARKED OVER THE PACIFIC NW
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A
SIGNIFICANT DROP IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FROM SUNDAY TO
MONDAY...AND TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE
TUES-THURS. A SERIES OF WAVES WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE TO A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. JOHNSON
AVIATION...00Z TAFS. RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM KLAMATH/LAKE COUNTIES NORTHEAST TO
WALLOWA COUNTY. THERE ARE CB CLOUDS IN THE VICINITY OF KRDM THAT
WILL LIKELY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT. HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15 KTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND
NE OREGON WITH TSTMS POSSIBLE NEAR KRDM IN THE AFTERNOON. JOHNSON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 55 97 60 95 / 0 0 0 10
ALW 57 96 63 95 / 0 0 0 10
PSC 55 99 60 100 / 0 0 0 0
YKM 58 96 64 96 / 0 0 0 0
HRI 53 98 58 98 / 0 0 0 10
ELN 54 96 59 95 / 0 0 0 0
RDM 46 94 47 96 / 20 10 10 10
LGD 52 91 54 91 / 20 20 10 20
GCD 52 94 55 94 / 20 20 20 20
DLS 56 98 61 97 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
THREAT INDEX
FRIDAY : GREEN
SATURDAY : GREEN
SUNDAY : YELLOW
GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
82/
[
W WA |
SW WA and W OR |
SE WA and NE OR |
NE WA and N ID
]
Northeastern Washington and Northern Idaho
536
FXUS66 KOTX 022314
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
414 PM PDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
INLAND NORTHWEST THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. BREEZY
WINDS WITH THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT BREAKS DOWN THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE.
THEN A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER THE REGION WITH
COOLER AND SHOWERY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT...IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY AND MILD AS A FLAT RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE INLAND NORTHWEST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL LINGER
OFF THE FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST...WHILE MONSOONAL MOISTURE
STREAMS TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST FROM THE DESERT SW INTO EASTERN
OREGON...AND REMAINING SOUTH OF THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AND NORTHERLY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES IN BRITISH
COLUMBIA.
BY FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE FLAT RIDGE GRADUALLY
AMPLIFIES. WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL SLIDE IN FROM THE
PACIFIC ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER...ONE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
ANOTHER SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THESE FEATURES COUPLED WITH A SHALLOW
LAYER OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASED INSTABILITY MAY BE
ENOUGH TO SPROUT SOME CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
THE NAM SEEMS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE AND UNSTABLE THAN THE
GFS...BASED ON HIGHER DEWPOINTS. BUT EVEN WITH THE SHIFT OF THE
LOW LEVEL WINDS TO THE SOUTH WITH SPEEDS OF LESS THAN 10
KTS...THIS DOESN'T SEEM STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE ADVECTION OF
MOISTURE TO REACH THE NAM LEVELS. SO WILL DOWNPLAY THE NAM
INSTABILITY AND LEAN ON IT FOR THE LOCATION OF THE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. NOT TOO CONFIDENT ON SHOWER FORMATION
FOR THE NORTHERN TIER ZONES DUE TO SHALLOWNESS OF THE MOISTURE
AND THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH THE PRESENCE OF
THE NORTHERLY FLOW. MEANWHILE...THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY
CREEP NORTHWARD FROM EASTERN OREGON...AND AFFECT THE BLUE
MOUNTAINS AND THE SOUTHERN IDAHO PANHANDLE. THIS WILL LEAD TO MORE
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AND THE SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE CASCADES AND
SETS UP IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND THE SURFACE BASED HEAT TROUGH IN
THE LEE OF THE CASCADES. IT WILL BE QUITE HOT...ANTICIPATE
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THEN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF A PACIFIC TROUGH. SUNDAY WILL START OFF QUITE
WARM...AND THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK BEFORE THE COLD FRONT
ARRIVES. THE MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO THE SOUTH AND ADVECTS
MONSOONAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE CASCADES AND THE COLUMBIA
BASIN. TIMING IS STILL A LITTLE FUZZY...BUT ANTICIPATE A THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO SPREAD FROM THE CASCADES INTO NORTHEAST
WASHINGTON AND PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS STARTING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT. AGREE WITH THE HANDLE OF MOISTURE
AND WINDS AS SEEN IN GFS...ECMWF AND CANADIAN OPPOSED TO THE NAM
ATTM. ANTICIPATE THE MAIN PUSH OF THE FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS ESPECIALLY IN THE
CASCADE VALLEYS AND WESTERN BASIN. THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS AND
INCREASED WINDS WILL HEIGHTEN CONCERNS FOR THE FIRE USERS IN THE
REGION...AND WILL UPDATE THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. /RFOX.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL SWEEP INLAND AND TAKE UP RESIDENCE OVER
THE INLAND NORTHWEST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL MEAN A
CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN TO COOLER AND UNSETTLED FOR MUCH OF
THE WORKWEEK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG
WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS...WILL BE ON MONDAY AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WITH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH A BETTER CHANCE IN THE MOUNTAINS FAVORABLE TO WESTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW. THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL KEEP
MAX TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAYS
READINGS...CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS. THE COOLING TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK AS THE UPPER LOW KEEPS CLOUDS
AND SCATTERED PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION. /KELCH
&&
.AVIATION...
ANTICIPATE GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND VFR CONDITIONS. /EK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SPOKANE 57 89 59 91 61 92 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
COEUR D'ALENE 55 89 56 90 57 92 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
PULLMAN 49 87 54 90 56 90 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
LEWISTON 60 94 63 97 64 98 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
COLVILLE 50 95 53 95 54 96 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
SANDPOINT 45 88 48 89 53 91 / 0 0 0 0 10 10
KELLOGG 55 85 55 87 57 91 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
MOSES LAKE 57 95 60 96 62 98 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
WENATCHEE 63 94 65 96 69 96 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
OMAK 58 95 59 97 62 96 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
WA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT PDT SUNDAY NIGHT
FOR EAST SLOPES NORTHERN CASCADES.
&&
$$
[
W WA |
SW WA and W OR |
SE WA and NE OR |
NE WA and N ID
]
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