850hPa Temperature in growing bariclinic wave

Weather and Climate Prediction

ATMS 380

 Time 12:30-1:20 MWF (3 credit), ATG 610

Instructors: Cecilia Bitz

Course Description

The atmosphere is part of a complex system that is often best investigated with models. Atmospheric models offer the opportunity to probe real phenomena, and models can be used as a learning tool to explore ideas though "what if" experimentation. This course will provide an overview of what weather and climate models entail, and how these models are used in the atmospheric sciences. Students will learn to run state-of-the-art models used for research in the atmospheric sciences. The course will cover techniques to visualize and analyze atmospheric phenomena. Students will be introduced to numerical methods and high-performance computing. Prerequisite: MATH 124-126, PHYS 121-122, and ONE of the following ATMS 101,111,211,301; ASTR 150,321; or ESS 201.

Learning Goals/Objectives

The objective for this course are to teach how weather and climate models are applied to solving problems in atmospheric sciences.  To teach modeling and visualization of model output as resources for professional careers in the environmental sciences. To teach the basics in numerical methods and high-performance computing. To provide a phenomenological approach to understanding complex problems.To empower undergraduates with research skills for independent learning and to assist with university research projects.

Text book

Unfortunately there is no perfect text book for this course for all the topics. The required text is "A Climate Modeling Primer" by McGuffie and Henderson Sellers. There will be supplementary reading material handed out in class.

Grading

Weekly exercises will involve running, analyzing, and interpreting models. When running a model for the first time in the course, designing a reasonable experiment, successfully setting it up and running the model will be the main goal of an exercise. In subsequent weeks, students will be judged on their interpretation of the results.Thus homework will be evaluated for a combination of following instructions, application of scientific method, and analysis of results. Exams will test students' understanding of reading and lecture materials. The course grade will be weighted 50% from homework and 50% from the midterm and final exam.

Draft Schedule of Topics

Week

Lectures

Exercises

Reading

1
1/3-
1/7

Introduction to numerical modeling in atmospheric sciences. Basics of turning equations of motion, thermodynamics, etc. into numerical schemes. Boundary value problems versus initial value problems. Basics of using matlab and writing a simple script.
Lecture 1 pdf
Lecture_2&3.pdf

HW1- Coding a simple equation in matlab
Cecilia's solution and discussion of HW1

McG&HS Ch 1

2
1/10-
1/14

Introduction to CAM. The value of idealized studies. Introduction to first case study: Baroclinic wave. Analyzing model output from the case study, model validation.
Lecture_4.pdf
Lecture_5.pdf

Baroclinic Wave case study 1.HW2 - Running CAM with scripts prepared for you. Making maps and animations with model output. Optional Reading (rather advanced) by Jablonowsky and Williams (2006) about this exercise.

Chapter on weather modeling handed out in class.

3
1/17-
1/21

Monday is a holiday. What is a parameterization? What is resolved in a model? What is uncertainty? Introduction to sensitivity studies. Hypothesis testing to investigate the case study.
(no notes for this week since I mostly drew picture at the board)

Baroclinic Wave case study 2. Comparing resolutions HW3
HW3 figures and results


4
1/24-
1/28

Examples of research using models for mesoscale and synoptic scale applications. Ensemble forecasts. Analysis of an ensemble.
Lecture_7&8.pdf
Lorenz model matlab script, also get this one

Aqua planet with moist physics.  HW4

Dry adiabatic run- vertical motion in cm/s at 500hPa and eddy height at 500hPa


Moist run - vertical motion in cm/s at 500hPa and eddy height at 500hPa

A movie I made using the matlab script for HW4 (it is fixed now)


5
1/31-
2/4

Midterm
Climate Modeling Introduction, why do climate models disagree about future warming?
  Week5.pdf

HW5 Modeling some strange orbits, what happens to the jet?

McG&HS Ch 2 and 3

6
2/7-
2/11

Planetary atmospheres and energy balance modeling. A look at the energy balance in our strange orbit runs.

chalkboard_feb7.pdf

chalkboard_feb9.pdf
Fancy Web Energy Balance Model Link
The one shown in class can be copied into your own directory on the 6th floor cluster from cp /home/disk/p/atms380/ebm/* yourdirectory

HW6


7
2/14-
2/18

Equilibrium response to greenhouse gases in CCSM4 compared to EBM

chalkboard_feb14_page1.pdf,
chalkboard_feb14_page2.pdf,

Week7.pdf

HW7

McG&HS Ch 5

8
2/21-
2/25
Monday is President's Day
On Wednesday I lectured about how I set up runs. The personal project set up instructions (at left) have much of the material that I discussed in class. I also talked about vegetation and land surface modeling in this pdf
Personal projects set up and run on Friday
MovingMoutains.html (Josh)
IcySomplanets.html (Kris)
MessWithX.html (Rob)
TidalLocking.html (Alex)
ShiftIC.html (Bill)
Everyone.html
Basics.html

9
2/28-
3/4

Climate Variability
Week9.pdf

Lessons in model analysis


10
3/7-
3/11

Examples of climate research using CAM. Class summary.
Week10.pdf

Personal project presentations on Friday

Class Presentations

Review

11




Useful books

Goosse H., P.Y. Barriat, W. Lefebvre, M.F. Loutre and V. Zunz. Introduction to Climate Dynamics and Climate Modeling Free Web Book.

Hartmann, D., Global Physical Climatology, Elsevier Academic Press, 1994

McGuffie, K., and A. Henderson-Sellers, A climate modeling primer, 2nd ed., John Wiley and Sons, 2005.

Robinson, W., Modeling dynamic climate systems, Springer, 2001.

Wallace, J. M. and Hobbs, Atmospheric Science: An Introductory Survey. 2nd ed. 2006.

Washington, W., and C. Parkinson, An introduction to three-dimensional climate modeling, 2nd ed., University Science Books, 2004.

http://www.theweatherprediction.com/ A web site with useful information about weather prediction.